Value-at-risk estimation with new skew extension of generalized normal distribution

In this paper, we introduce a new distribution, called the alpha-skew generalized normal (ASGN), for GARCH models in modeling daily Value-at-Risk (VaR). Basic structural properties of the proposed distribution are derived including probability and cumulative density functions, moments and stochastic representation. The real data application based on ISE-100 index is given to show the performance of GARCH model specified under ASGN innovation distribution with respect to normal, Student’s-t, skew normal and generalized normal models in terms of the VaR accuracy. The empirical results show that GARCH model with ASGN innovation distribution generates the most accurate VaR forecasts for all confidence levels.     

The Impact of E‐Replenishment Strategy on Make‐to‐Order Supply Chain Performance

This research investigates the impact of electronic replenishment strategy on the operational activities and performance of a two‐stage make‐to‐order supply chain. We develop simulation‐based rolling schedule procedures that link the replenishment processes of the channel members and apply them in an experimental analysis to study manual, semi‐automated, and fully automated e‐replenishment strategies in decentralized and coordinated decision‐making supply chain structures. The average operational cost reductions for moving from a manual‐based system to a fully automated system are 19.6, 29.5, and 12.5%, respectively, for traditional decentralized, decentralized with information sharing, and coordinated supply chain structures. The savings are neither equally distributed among participants, nor consistent across supply chain structures. As expected, for the fully coordinated system, total costs monotonically decrease with higher levels of automation. However, for the two decentralized structures, under which most firms operate today, counter‐intuitive findings reveal that the unilateral application of e‐procurement technology by the buyer may lower his purchasing costs, but increase the seller's and system's costs. The exact nature of the relationship is determined by the channel's operational flexibility. Broader results indicate that while the potential economic benefit of e‐replenishment in a decentralized system is substantial, greater operational improvements maybe possible through supply chain coordination.     

The U.S. mainstream expands – again

Building on neo-assimilation ideas, we conceptualise the ‘mainstream’ and then find compelling evidence of its expansion in the U.S. in the rising number of individuals who come from mixed minority–majority backgrounds. In terms of the contexts in which they are raised and their social identities and affiliations, on the whole they resemble whites more than they do minorities, and they marry whites at very high rates. Individuals who are partly black are exceptions to some of these patterns. We note an important similarity between this expansion and the one associated with post-World War II assimilation: both are connected with growing diversity of identity and ethnic expression in the mainstream. An equally important difference lies in the more modest magnitude of the current expansion. We close with a series of questions for future research raised by our argument.     

The generalized odd log-logistic family of distributions: properties,regression models and applications

We propose a new class of continuous distributions with two extra shape parameters named the generalized odd log-logistic family of distributions. The proposed family contains as special cases the proportional reversed hazard rate and odd log-logistic classes. Its density function can be expressed as a linear combination of exponentiated densities based on the same baseline distribution. Some of its mathematical properties including ordinary moments, quantile and generating functions, two entropy measures and order statistics are obtained. We derive a power series for the quantile function. We discuss the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the model parameters. We study the behaviour of the estimators by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We introduce the log-odd log-logistic Weibull regression model with censored data based on the odd log-logistic-Weibull distribution. The importance of the new family is illustrated using three real data sets. These applications indicate that this family can provide better fits than other well-known classes of distributions. The beauty and importance of the proposed family lies in its ability to model different types of real data.     

Voluntary leadership: motivation and influence

In social dilemmas, leading a team by making heroic efforts may prove costly, especially when the followers are not adequately motivated to make similar sacrifices. Attempting to shed light on what drives people to lead, we devise a two-stage public good experiment with endogenous timing. We show that leading by making generous contributions is widespread and relatively persistent. At least three motives explain this behavior. Some use leadership strategically to distill personal gains, with the expectation that others will respond by being at least as generous. Others are more altruistic, volunteering to lead even though this may come at a personal cost. Yet for another fraction of volunteers, a concern for maintaining a positive social image appears to be responsible. We also find that voluntary leaders are not necessarily more influential than randomly-chosen leaders.     

Helping Low-Conflict Divorced Parents Establish Appropriate Boundaries Using a Variation of the Miracle Question: An Integration of Solution-Focused Therapy and Structural Family Therapy

The authors discuss the implications of divorce and the effect that divorce has on the relationships between family members. Parents are encouraged to develop appropriate co-parental boundaries that direct and influence subsequent interactions between family members. Using an integration of solution-focused therapy and structural family therapy, a variation of the miracle question is suggested as a means to help parents gain confidence in making changes in behavior. The miracle question also is intended to help parents set new goals for themselves and increase the ability to cooperate and communicate as co-parents. A case study provides an example of this idea.     

The odd power cauchy family of distributions: properties,regression models and applications

We study some mathematical properties of a new generator of continuous distributions with one extra parameter called the odd power Cauchy family including asymptotics, linear representation, moments, quantile and generating functions, entropies, order statistics and extreme values. We introduce two bivariate extensions of the new family. The maximum likelihood method is discussed to estimate the model parameters by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study. We define a new log-odd power Cauchy–Weibull regression model. The usefulness of the proposed models is proved empirically by means of three real data sets.     

Myth of the Eternal State: Armenian Outlaws,American Outsiders,and the Ottoman Search for Order

Focusing on violent Ottoman contexts, this study explores state behavior, charts criminal taxonomy, and contributes to the state-outlaw paradigm an analytical conduit through which to explain state responses to the outlaws on discursive and institutional levels. At the center of this study are several cases that demonstrate the engagement of local outlaws with evangelical outsiders named George Knapp, George White, and Ellen Stone. It is my contention that, while mitigating specific activities involving these outlaws and outsiders, the state under study invents new traditions, empowers security networks, claims unaccountability, and executes double standards in pursuit of social order within its borders.