Toward integrated global models: From economic engineering to social science modeling

It is argued that political and military variables are so crucial in decision making that they ought to be included in world models. Three projects, including our own, are described in brief to give a sense of the theories and data that have been employed in some existing global modeling efforts based on this assumption. The project entitled Computer Simulations for Decision Making in International Affairs utilizes an adaptive macromodel of global political, military, and economic processes into which a host of empirically based minimodules are introduced. The Nations in Conflict studies have focused thus far on an econometric model comprised of three primary components: domestic growth and external expansions, competition for foreign resources, market, allies, and strategic advantage, and the dynamics of crisis behavior. The Alker simulation studies have utilized artificial intelligence techniques to study the structuring and restructuring of international systems of social interaction.The theoretical and empirical materials developed in these projects are highly relevant to the enterprise of integrated global modeling. The earliest efforts were begun to build models of the political and military components of international processes. Subsequent world modelers of the Forrester-Meadows inspired genre focused on the economic aspects of the globe, including its demography. It is argued that the convergence of these two traditions be accomplished in a synthetic fashion in ongoing as well as future work.     

Corporate strategies for political action

Discussions of the firm's relationships with its environment have usually concluded that the firm should make adaptive decisions to non-market areas, and proactive or strategic decisions in market areas. Predicating strategic responses upon the differences between market and non-market relationships is inappropriate and misleading, reduces the capacity of the firm to respond effectively to its environment, and distorts the process of environmental scanning. When the firm's relationships with its environment are examined as inter-organizational relationships, market and non-market relationships are structurally similar, and the same types of strategic responses can be selected for both areas. The strategic responses available to the firm in inter-organizational terms are: adaptation; pre-emption, co-optation; interpenetration; conflict and withdrawal. These processes and choices are structurally similar to traditional market related strategic options and can be used to respond to market and non-market factors. The manager scans the environment not only to identify opportunities for adaptation, but to identify groups which affect the integrity of the firm, the processes for interaction, the character of relationships, and occasions for strategic choice. The strategic decision process under a framework of inter-organizational transactions is illustrated by the cases of Sun Life Insurance Co., and the pulp and paper industry in Quebec.     

Influence of Caregiver Substance Dependence and Serious Mental Illness on Children’s Mental Health: Moderating Effects of Social Support

This study examined the relationships between caregiver alcohol dependence, drug dependence, and serious mental illness and internalizing and externalizing behaviors and whether these risks were moderated by social support. The study included 3,225 children ages 2–17 and their current caregivers, who participated in the second cohort of the National Survey on Child and Adolescent Well-Being. Regression analysis indicated that caregiver alcohol dependence, serious mental illness, and social support were significantly associated with internalizing behaviors and caregiver serious mental illness and social support were significantly associated with externalizing behaviors. Results indicated that social support moderated the associations between caregiver alcohol dependence and internalizing and caregiver drug dependence and externalizing behaviors. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

CAN SCHOOL SPORTS REDUCE RACIAL GAPS IN TRUANCY AND ACHIEVEMENT?

While existing research supports that participation in high‐school athletics is associated with better education and labor‐market outcomes, the mechanisms through which these benefits accrue are not well established. Using individual microdata collected daily, and team‐specific schedules, we retrieve estimates of the causal effect of high‐school athletic participation on absenteeism, suggesting that participation decreases absences, driven primarily by reductions in unexcused absences in boys. There are also strong game‐day effects in truancy, in both boys and girls, with truancy declines on game days more than offset by subsequent absenteeism. Important heterogeneity by race, gender, and family structure may serve to substantially reduce racial gaps in truancy and achievement. (JEL I21, L83)     

Resisting Smoking When a Best Friend Smokes: Do Intrapersonal and Contextual Factors Matter?

This longitudinal study examines individual differences in the tendency to initiate (N = 4,612) and escalate (N = 2,837) smoking when adolescents gain a best friend who smokes. Potential moderating factors include self-esteem, depression, problem behavior, school and family bonds, and household access to cigarettes. In addition to acquiring a smoking best friend, initiation was predicted by trouble at school, household access, poorer grades and delinquency, whereas escalation was predicted by depressive symptoms. There was little evidence that the examined individual difference factors moderate the association between gaining a smoking best friend and increased adolescent smoking. Results point to the challenges of identifying factors that may lead adolescents to be more or less susceptible to the influence of pro-smoking friends.