Statistical Analysis of Coins Lost in Circulation

The loss rate of coins in the Israeli pound (IL) series issued in Israel in 1960–1979 is estimated, and the connection between it and the characteristics of the coins is examined. A lifetime model with time-dependent hazard rate and an estimation procedure for the model parameters are presented. The estimates are then used to forecast the number of coins surviving in circulation and the median lifetime of different denominations. The data are random samples drawn from the coins in circulation at a point in time, the sampled coins being sorted by date of issue.     

STRATEGY AND INTERVENTION VERSUS NONINTERVENTION: A MATTER OF THEORY?*

The question of whether or not intervention and strategy are necessary components of competent therapy is described and related to the metaphorical assumptions of underlying theory. Passive listening and expert interpretations are consequences of psychodynamic theory. Active manipulation of social structure and strategic intervention into feedback are described as consequences of the mechanical assumptions of structural and cybernetic theory. Conversational participation and non intervention are described as necessary consequences of hermeneutic and linguistic approaches to therapy. It is concluded that different theoretical assumptions yield different conclusions regarding the nature of therapy and human problems. From this perspective the question of Intervention Versus Non-Intervention is more a matter of the theory held than a question to be answered in terms of the “right” or “adequate” thing to do or not do.     

EDB: A Case Study in Communicating Risk

This is a report on the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) efforts to communicate with the public about the risks of ethylene dibromide (EDB), what the agency said it was doing about these risks and what information the public actually received through television and newspapers. Although special in many ways, the EDB case illustrates the problems that regulatory agencies have when they must take regulatory action and assure the public that the risks in question are being dealt with adequately. It also illustrates issues that the press faces. Above all, it illustrates the barriers to communication presented by the different perspectives of regulatory agencies and individuals and the types of information they each are most interested in.     

Family Therapy Process in a Family Therapy Seminar

The interaction between leaders and members in a year-long family therapy seminar is systematically compared to the process that unfolds between therapist and family during the course of family therapy. A five stage developmental process common to both is postulated and described: (1) Battle for Structure, (2) Naive Enthusiasm, (3) Conflictual Frustration, (4) Task Orientation, and (5) Mutuality. The dynamic elements of each stage are analyzed and factors affecting their development are identified. It is concluded that this five stage process occurs in all similar groups, but that the content of each stage may vary widely from group to group.     

Cooperation and preference by peers in early childhood: A longitudinal study

Children who are more proficient in cooperation with peers tend to be more preferred. To date, the development of peer cooperation has been studied mainly in two research traditions, one focusing on action coordination and the other focusing on interaction quality. Both aspects of cooperation are relevant for children's peer relations, but it is unclear whether both aspects of children's earliest cooperation skills predict their later preference by peers after the transition into organized social groups in school. In this study, we assessed coordination proficiency and interaction quality of 181 Dutch children longitudinally from 2 to 4 years of age. No relation between early action coordination and later preference by peers at school was found. However, especially in girls more affiliative and fewer antagonistic behaviors at the age of two predicted likeability among classmates at school at the age of four. The findings shine new light on the earliest foundations of children's peer evaluations.