A bayesian analysis of trend determination in economic time series

In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of our posteriors under alternative data generating processes by simulation methods. We apply our Bayesian techniques to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data and various stock price and dividend data. Contrary to DeJong and Whiteman (1989a,b,c), we do not find that the data overwhelmingly favor the existence of deterministic trends over stochastic trends. In addition, we find evidence supporting Perron's (1989) view that some of the Nelson and Plosser data are best construed as trend stationary with a change in the trend function occurring at 1929.     

IN DEFENSE OF CASE CONSULTATION: MAYBE "DEAD" SUPERVISION ISN'T DEAD AFTER ALL

Clinical supervision based on "raw data"—the supervisor having direct access to the therapy session via tape or live observation—has become a hallmark of family therapy training. Despite the many advantages of such an approach, it also has limitations. The case consultation approach to supervision provides a different perspective which complements raw data supervision and remedies some of the limitations of the raw data approach. This paper proposes four specific tasks that are best undertaken in case consultation sessions: understanding the "architecture" of therapy, helping trainees build theoretical models of change, understanding the clients'broader context, and understanding the student's broader context.     

Career Development for At-Risk Youth: A Program Evaluation

At-risk populations pose a major challenge to the counseling profession. This article describes a career development program for at-risk youth and delineates both the process and the outcomes of a combined quantitative and qualitative program evaluation. The results suggest that at-risk youth can benefit significantly from this career development program. A combination of work and curricular experiences seemed to be effective with this population.     

Denying the data: Learning from the accomplished sciences

Accomplished sciences are distinguished by an active orientation to data. Rather than explaining passive observations or even laboratory results, these sciences put a premium on creating effects or objects never before observed. Theories provide a basis for denying the data, in showing how nature can be better organized to produce some new effect or object. In this paper, a method for constructing these theories is developed. A sociological application is carried out to the point where an accomplishment is claimed. A very peculiar object is discovered — a relationship. Though it does not resemble anything we may have ever observed, it offers to groping actors a guide to something that works and hence could become something that is commonly observed. Likely scruples are addressed that might block the pursuit of such accomplishments.     

Willingness to Pay for Risk Reduction and Risk Aversion without the Expected Utility Assumption

By means of minimal assumptions on the individual preferences, I show that the Willingness To Pay (WTP) for both a FSD and SSD reduction of risk is the sum of a mean effect, a pure risk effect and a wealth effect. As a result, the WTP of a risk-averse decision maker may be lower than the WTP of a risk-neutral one, for a large class of individual preferences’ representation and a large class of risks.     

Reliability and Validity of the Pathological Gambling Adaptation of the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (PG-YBOCS)

The Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale adapted for Pathological Gambling (PG-YBOCS) was developed to measure the severity and change in severity of pathological gambling symptoms. The PG-YBOCS is a 10-item clinician-administered questionnaire that measures the severity of PG over a recent time interval (usually within the past one/two week(s)). In order to assess and validate the scale, it was administered to 337 subjects: 188 pathological gamblers and 149 healthy controls. Internal consistency and correlations between individual items and total score were assessed for various permutations of the sample. Other scales were administered to assess convergent, discriminant and content validity. Sensitivity to change was evaluated in treatment studies with fluovoxamine, lithium, and valproate. Each item was frequently endorsed across a range of severity. Good inter-rater reliability and internal consistency were obtained. The PG-YBOCS showed high validity and reliability for total score, item-total correlations, and for each subscale (Thoughts/Urges and Behavior). PG-YBOCS scores correlated with global severity and South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) scores. The scale was also sensitive to change in pathological gambling severity. PG-YBOCS thus appears to be a reliable and valid measure of pathological gambling severity, and can be regarded as an important tool for clinicians and researchers treating pathological gamblers.     

Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?

Much of the increased risk for atherosclerosis progression with age may be a result of age-related declines in the capacity of precursor cells to repair damage in the arterial endothelium. To estimate the impact of progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, life expectancy, and survival, as compared with the lifetime control of conventional risk factors, we modeled the health effects of bone marrow-derived endothelial progenitor cell therapy using data from the 1950 to 1996 follow-up of the Framingham Heart Study. To model cardiovascular disease mortality, we assumed that progenitor cell therapy was applied at age 30, with the effect assumed to be a 10-year delay in atherosclerosis progression. Age projections were constructed analytically using the stochastic process model for risk factor dynamics and mortality and microsimulation techniques. We considered three types of interventions: (i) keeping risk factors within selected limits to model current clinical recommendations; (ii) an age shift of 10 years to model the effects of progenitor cell therapy; and (iii) elimination of a competing risk (such as cancer). Our study suggests that progenitor cell therapy might increase life expectancy in the population as much as the complete elimination of cancer (in females, an additional 3.67 versus 3.37 years; in males, an additional 5.94 versus 2.86 years, respectively).     

The Graying of America and Support for Funding the Nation's Schools

Surveys spanning more than 35 years show that older Americansare less likely than younger citizens to endorse increased spendingon public schools. The conventional explanation for this generationalcleavage presumes that citizens’ interests change as theyapproach or transition into retirement—the absence ofschool-age children and fixed incomes combine to lower theirinterest in supporting spending increases for public education.We show that the conventional wisdom is incorrect, based ona confusion of age and cohort effects. Cohort-period analysisshows that every cohort becomes more supportive of educationalspending, rather than less, as they reach their 60s and 70s.The implications are important, for they suggest that the predicted"gray peril" to educational spending will not occur. Rather,our results suggest that public support for educational spendingwill continue its remarkable rise.     

Comparing the Quality of Data Obtained by Minimally Balanced and Fully Balanced Attitude Questions

When measuring attitudes with questions that offer dichotomous,mutually exclusive response options, researchers can ask "fullybalanced" questions (which fully state both competing pointsof view) or "minimally balanced" questions (which fully stateone viewpoint and only briefly acknowledge the second viewpoint).The two studies reported here investigated whether the greaterefficiency of the latter approach brought with it reductionsin the quality of the data obtained. Two experiments embeddedin national sample surveys showed that minimally balanced andfully balanced attitude questions yielded similar distributionsof responses and that responses to the two question forms wereequivalent in terms of concurrent validity. These studies suggestthat greater efficiency can be achieved via minimal balancingat no cost in terms of data quality.     

Cultural Discourse in Action: Interactional Dynamics and Symbolic Meaning

Cultural sociology has recently developed new tools with which to understand and analyze meaning in terms of cultural discourse. Specifically, this paper further develops the Alexanderian form of discourse analysis through application on the micro-level. Utilizing extensive ethnographic data, the mythopoetic men's movement is examined in terms of how its participants construct political meaning that motivates and guides their action. In empirical detail, these actors can be seen as creating a cultural discourse that constitutes the social movement at a fundamental level while at the same time the discourse is continually negotiated, contested, and reconfigured. Exposed is the “discourse of liberational masculinity” which is used by movement participants to challenge and confront hegemonic masculinity in American society. Examining the mythopoetic men's movement from this perspective demonstrates the analytic utility of this approach through revealing in unique ways the dynamics of morality, political belief, and perceived hegemony within this popular contemporary social movement.