A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Campylobacter in Petting Zoos

The significance of petting zoos for transmission of Campylobacter to humans and the effect of interventions were estimated. A stochastic QMRA model simulating a child or adult visiting a Dutch petting zoo was built. The model describes the transmission of Campylobacter in animal feces from the various animal species, fences, and the playground to ingestion by visitors through touching these so‐called carriers and subsequently touching their lips. Extensive field and laboratory research was done to fulfill data needs. Fecal contamination on all carriers was measured by swabbing in 10 petting zoos, using Escherichia coli as an indicator. Carrier‐hand and hand‐lip touching frequencies were estimated by, in total, 13 days of observations of visitors by two observers at two petting zoos. The transmission from carrier to hand and from hand to lip by touching was measured using preapplied cow feces to which E. coli WG5 was added as an indicator. Via a Beta‐Poisson dose‐response function, the number of Campylobacter cases for the whole of the Netherlands (16 million population) in a year was estimated at 187 and 52 for children and adults, respectively, so 239 in total. This is significantly lower than previous QMRA results on chicken fillet and drinking water consumption. Scenarios of 90% reduction of the contamination (meant to mimic cleaning) of all fences and just goat fences reduces the number of cases by 82% and 75%, respectively. The model can easily be adapted for other fecally transmitted pathogens.     

Risk Taking in Late Adolescence: Relations Between Sociomoral Reasoning,Risk Stance,and Behavior

This study explored relations among late adolescents' sociomoral reasoning about risk taking, risk stance, and behavior. One‐hundred and thirty‐two participants (18–20‐year‐olds) were surveyed about their own risk stance (Avoidant, Opportunistic, Curious, Risk Seeking) and behavior in three realms (Alcohol Use, Drug Use, Reckless Driving), and sociomoral reasoning about hypothetical risk taking in a baseline scenario with no social domain information and a final scenario that highlighted the moral (i.e., harmful consequences for others), conventional (i.e., sociolegal consequences), personal (i.e., personal prerogative), and prudential (i.e., harmful consequences for self) domains bearing on risk taking. The complex relations among sociomoral reasoning about risk taking, risk stance, and behavior are discussed in terms of social domain theory and dual‐process theories of risk taking.     

Classroom Goal Structures and HIV and Pregnancy Prevention Education in Rural High School Health Classrooms

Over 5,000 adolescents enrolled in required rural high school health courses reported their perceptions of mastery and extrinsic goal structures in their health classrooms. Data were collected from all students at three time points (prior to HIV and pregnancy instruction, 3 months after instruction, and 1 year after instruction). Results indicated that classroom goal structures were related to both proximal and distal knowledge, attitudes, intentions, and efficacy beliefs. Results in particular indicate that the perception of a mastery goal structure in health education classrooms fosters knowledge, improved attitudes, enhanced efficacy beliefs, and lower intentions to have sexual intercourse.     

Revolt on the Nile: Economic Shocks,Religion, and Political Power

Using centuries of Nile flood data, I document that during deviant Nile floods, Egypt's highest‐ranking religious authority was less likely to be replaced and relative allocations to religious structures increased. These findings are consistent with historical evidence that Nile shocks increased this authority's political influence by raising the probability he could coordinate a revolt. I find that the available data provide support for this interpretation and weigh against some of the most plausible alternatives. For example, I show that while Nile shocks increased historical references to social unrest, deviant floods did not increase a proxy for popular religiosity. Together, the results suggest an increase in the political power of religious leaders during periods of economic downturn.     

Testing for Common Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factors

This paper proposes a test for common conditionally heteroskedastic (CH) features in asset returns. Following Engle and Kozicki (1993), the common CH features property is expressed in terms of testable overidentifying moment restrictions. However, as we show, these moment conditions have a degenerate Jacobian matrix at the true parameter value and therefore the standard asymptotic results of Hansen (1982) do not apply. We show in this context that Hansen's (1982) J‐test statistic is asymptotically distributed as the minimum of the limit of a certain random process with a markedly nonstandard distribution. If two assets are considered, this asymptotic distribution is a fifty–fifty mixture of χ²_H−1 and χ²_H, where H is the number of moment conditions, as opposed to a χ²_H−1. With more than two assets, this distribution lies between the χ²_H−p and χ²_H (p denotes the number of parameters). These results show that ignoring the lack of first‐order identification of the moment condition model leads to oversized tests with a possibly increasing overrejection rate with the number of assets. A Monte Carlo study illustrates these findings.     

Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models

This paper considers random coefficients binary choice models. The main goal is to estimate the density of the random coefficients nonparametrically. This is an ill‐posed inverse problem characterized by an integral transform. A new density estimator for the random coefficients is developed, utilizing Fourier–Laplace series on spheres. This approach offers a clear insight on the identification problem. More importantly, it leads to a closed form estimator formula that yields a simple plug‐in procedure requiring no numerical optimization. The new estimator, therefore, is easy to implement in empirical applications, while being flexible about the treatment of unobserved heterogeneity. Extensions including treatments of nonrandom coefficients and models with endogeneity are discussed.     

Human Resource Development in Asia – Thriving on dynamism & change: Reflections from 2006 Asian HRD conference

This article discusses the experiences of the conference management team and the host (Universiti Putra Malaysia -UPM) of the Fifth Asian Conference of the Academy of Human Resource Development, held in Putrajaya, Malaysia from 2 to 5 December 2006. In reviewing the conference, the following sub-topics are used for organizing the contents of the article: HRD in Malaysia; conference theme & overview; participations/country representations and paper streams; keynote addresses; conference assessment; and conclusions. At the end, brief perspectives of the next Asian HRD conference to be held in China are also provided.     

The Impact of Adaptive Preferences on Subjective Indicators: An Analysis of Poverty Indicators

Subjective indicators are often criticized since they are thought to be particularly affected by the phenomenon of adaptive preferences and social comparison. For social policy purposes, processes of downward adaptation in disadvantaged individuals are of particular importance, i.e., it is supposed that such people compare themselves with others who are in the same precarious situation or even worse off and, as a result, lower their expectations and adapt their aspirations and preferences to their material and financial constraints. Based on the 2006–2010 waves of the Swiss Household Panel study, this contribution examines whether, and to what degree, indicators of material deprivation, subjective poverty and subjective well-being are affected by such downward adaptations. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the bias caused by adaptation processes varies considerably among different measures and that, although subjective indicators are indeed often affected by this phenomenon, there are also robust measures, notably Townsend’s deprivation measure, Halleröd’s proportional deprivation index and the subjective well-being measure of general life satisfaction.     

An empirical assessment of the effect of professionalism on cynicism among prison guards

Prison guards have generally escaped social science inquiry. Although the prison guards’ officially prescribed role (custody and security) is straightforward, part of the problem is their isolation from the free society and the danger and uncertainty surrounding their work. One attitude that is potentially emergent in this problematic environment is cynicism. To minimize the effects of cynicism on prison guards, correctional agencies have devised and implemented a plan of professionalization, which is characterized by a concern for higher standards in all areas and improved benefits and working conditions. Our focus was evaluating the effect, if any, professionalism has on cynicism.

Analysis of data derived from 144 prison guards showed that the relationship between professionalism and cynicism is complex. Generally, only one professionalism dimension—sense of calling to the field—reduced a prison guard's cynicism. Effects of other professionalism dimensions on cynicism ranged from negligible to moderate.