大豆生产者补贴政策改革促进农户种植结构调整了吗?——基于全国446个县的准自然实验

以大豆生产者补贴政策改革作为切入点,将政策实施地区和非实施地区视为一次部分省份优化大豆、玉米种植结构的准自然实验,通过构建PSM-DID模型,考察大豆生产者补贴政策改革对农户种植结构调整的影响及其作用机制.结果表明:(1)大豆生产者补贴政策改革对农户种植结构调整具有显著的时间异质性,政策改革初年(2017年)大豆与玉米的面积之比显著提高6.5％,虽然2018年大豆与玉米的相对补贴额度出现大幅度增长,但大豆与玉米的面积之比仅显著提高3.4％;(2)预期相对收益的提升是2017年农户调整种植结构的重要原因,然而,经过对新制度一年的适应后,农户对种植玉米的路径依赖、补贴错位、地租的不合理增长以及大豆、玉米相对价格不理想等问题逐渐凸显,2018年农户重新调整种植决策,补贴的激励作用被迫减弱.基于此,研究结论为统筹大豆、玉米补贴机制可以促进农户种植结构调整提供经验性证据,也为在农业供给侧结构性改革和大豆振兴压力下如何持续改善种植结构提供政策启示.     

批判性重构:莱斯关于“人之存在方式”的研究

当今社会最重大的时代主题就是人之存在问题。莱斯是最早用马克思主义理论透视人之存在方式问题的生态学马克思主义者。对于人之存在方式的研究,莱斯有其独特的逻辑理路与研究范式。他准确预言了高集约度市场布局下人的异化存在已经由生产领域转向消费领域,并判明主体存在方式由理性控制走向非理性狡计的历史趋势。莱斯所描绘的生态社会主义蓝图看似极具浪漫主义的乌托邦情结,但他所开启的从生态学马克思主义视域探究人之存在方式问题的研究路向影响深远。     

Modeling turnover intention and job performance: the moderation of perceived benevolent climate

Review of Managerial Science - Drawing upon the conservation of resources theory and ethical climate theory, this study develops a mediation model that explains how job stress influences both job...     

The disembedded digital economy: Social protection for new economy employment in China

This research focuses upon employment in the new economy, exploring labour protection and social protection in the digital age in China. Through an empirical survey conducted in three Chinese cities, social insurance and the labour rights of employees in the digital economic sector, such as gig employment, e-commerce, and various other forms of online employment, have been examined in-depth. This study reveals new regulatory loopholes in the digital labour market, which have substantially eroded the basis of social policy arrangements in China, “softening” participation in social insurance branches and compliance with labour regulations remarkably. Drawing upon the theoretical concepts of Polanyi on embeddedness and disembeddedness, we argue that the digital employment sector in China has been increasingly disembedded from social institutions and social control. The new configuration in the digital field of social policy requires novel conceptual models and institutional settings to cope with increasing social risks in virtual spaces.     

货币增速剪刀差与股票价格波动的相关性实证研究--基于结构突变视角

为深入认知我国货币政策与股票市场间的传导机制,在阐述结构突变理论,揭示数据生成过程运行轨迹的基础上,选用2004年1月至2012年8月的月度数据,以货币增速剪刀差和上证综合指数为考察指标,利用滤波图分析、外生性与BLS内生性结构突变单位根检验及Granger因果关系检验方法,实证检验两者关系。表明货币增速剪刀差序列服从平稳过程,上证指数序列为含有在2006年9月和2007年7月发生结构突变的平稳过程。上证指数与货币增速剪刀差之间存在单向因果关系。     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

国有经济在国民经济中的核心地位

国有经济在国民经济中的核心地位是毋庸置疑的 ,关键是国有经济在国民经济中所占比例应该存在一个平衡的尺度点 ,这个尺度点与外在的国际环境和内在的社会结构密切相关。文章分析了国有经济及其变形形态 ,并描述了其运行规律。文章强调 ,社会人的公私二像性特征是深刻理解国民经济体系中国有经济未来发展趋势的理论基石。     

对西部地区土地整理若干问题的思考

我国西部地区地域辽阔,地质地貌复杂,人少地多,土地利用相对粗放,是我国未开发利用土地的主要分布区,同时也是气候干旱多灾、水土流失严重、自然条件较差、生态环境脆弱的地区.随着国家西部大开发战略的实施,各项建设事业对土地的需求将会十分旺盛.如何根据西部地区特殊的自然、经济和社会条件来讨论西部土地资源的利用形式、利用方式以及生态环境保护,是西部大开发中首先应该思考的问题.     

论耕地资源的保护

耕地是土地的精华,是事关我们这个人口大国现在和子孙后代粮食安全最重要的因素之一.因此,保护耕地资源是当前最艰巨而又迫切的任务.     

腔内电光调制激光系统的混沌模拟

采用数值模拟的方法讨论了带反馈的腔內电光调制激光系统功率输出的分叉和混沌行为,得到了输出功率随控制参数变化的分叉图,和一些定量结果。