Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ``productivity' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ``translation' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ``enriched' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at a conference on ``Population Change, Labor Market Transition and Economic Development in Asia,' Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 6–9 December 2002. A pre-publication version of this paper will be presented at a joint conference (by COE/JEPA) entitled ``Towards a new economic paradigm: Declining population growth, labor market transition and economic development under globalization,' held at the Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center, Kobe, Japan, 17–19 December 2005. We have benefited from comments by Michelle Connolly, Andrew Mason, Pietro Peretto, Warren Sanderson, Alessandro Tarozzi, Jeffrey Williamson, and two anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Brief psychotherapy with children and adolescents: A developmental perspective

There are factors inherent in the developmental process that make brief therapy a particularly viable intervention for infants, children, adolescents and young adults. A more explicit examination of developmental principles can provide a foundation for better understanding the potential and the efficacy of brief psychotherapy for patients in these age ranges. A case example illustrates these ideas.Clinical Social Worker, Student Counseling and Resource Service, University of Chicago; and in private practice in Chicago.     

Gender Mainstreaming: An Assessment of Its Conceptual Value for Gender Equality

Evaluations of gender mainstreaming show that there has been limited change to gender equality and it has been very fragmented across EU countries. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to evaluate the heuristic and conceptual value of the term gender mainstreaming as a metaphor for gender equality. Our results from applying an image‐schematic model of metaphor evaluation show that gender mainstreaming represents a nonsensical metaphor for gender equality. We conclude with recommendations for reconceptualizing gender mainstreaming.     

Contingencies in Mother–Child Teaching Interactions and Behavioral Regulation and Dysregulation in Early Childhood

Predictable patterns in early parent–child interactions may help lay the foundation for how children learn to self‐regulate. The present study examined contingencies between maternal teaching and directives and child compliance in mother–child problem‐solving interactions at age 3.5 and whether they predicted children's behavioral regulation and dysregulation (inhibitory control and externalizing behaviors) as rated by mothers, fathers, and teachers at a four‐month follow‐up (N = 100). The predictive utility of mother‐ and child‐initiated contingencies was also compared with that of frequencies of individual mother and child behaviors. Structural equation models revealed that a higher probability that maternal directives were followed by child compliance predicted better child behavioral regulation, whereas the reverse pattern and the overall frequency of maternal directives did not. For teaching, stronger mother‐ and child‐initiated contingencies and the overall frequency of maternal teaching all showed evidence for predicting better behavioral regulation. Findings depended on which caregiver was rating child outcomes. We conclude that dyadic measures are useful for understanding how parent–child interactions impact children's burgeoning regulatory abilities in early childhood.     

Subset Selection in Linear Regression using Sequentially Normalized Least Squares: Asymptotic Theory

This article examines the recently proposed sequentially normalized least squares criterion for the linear regression subset selection problem. A simplified formula for computation of the criterion is presented, and an expression for its asymptotic form is derived without the assumption of normally distributed errors. Asymptotic consistency is proved in two senses: (i) in the usual sense, where the sample size tends to infinity, and (ii) in a non‐standard sense, where the sample size is fixed and the noise variance tends to zero.     

Loss prediction based on run-off triangles

Loss reserving is an important subject of actuarial mathematics. It aims at the prediction of future losses caused by claims which have incurred in the past but have not yet been closed. The problem of predicting such losses is particularly important in liability insurance. More generally, it is most relevant with respect to the new regulatory requirements for insurance companies operating in the European Union, which are known as Solvency II.     

Attitudes towards foreigners and Jews in Germany: identifying the determinants of xenophobia in a large opinion survey

The ultimate aim of opinion surveys is the provision of information on the distribution of preferences and perceptions at the individual level. Yet, eliciting this information from the data is typically difficult. This paper uses a structural model to explain the answers on a set of questions regarding the perception of foreigners and Jews by native Germans. In this model it is assumed that in addition to observable individual characteristics there exists an underlying unobserved attitude towards minorities which drives the distribution of answers by native respondents. This latent variable in turn is assumed to be influenced by a set of observable socio-economic characteristics of the individuals. In order to estimate this model it is necessary to impose strong identification restrictions. Estimation results show that education is the key correlate of the perception of foreigners and Jews in Germany.     

Musculoskeletal problems in bricklayers as a function of length of employment: The role of secondary selection by low-back pain

Abstract

Low-back problems that are caused by heavy physical work should increase with the length of employment. In a cross-sectional study 195 bricklayers were interviewed and subjected to a medical examination concerned with complaints and functional impairments of the musculoskeletal systems of different body regions (neck/shoulder, arms/hands, back, hip/legs/feet). Summary variables for complaints and impairments indicated an increase with increasing age. Contrary to expectation, in pairs of bricklayers of the same age, but different length of employment, a general decline of complaints and impairments with longer employment was observed. This finding suggested a healthy worker effect. In a follow-up the turnover rate among 190 of the 195 bricklayers of the original study was determined. Bricklayers who had quit the job had a higher incidence of low-back troubles before leaving than bricklayers who had stayed in the job; the relation between turnover and low-back problems was limited to bricklayers older than about 40 years.