Risk filtering, ranking, and management framework using hierarchical holographic modeling.

This paper contributes a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risk scenarios of a large-scale system. Qualitative screening of scenarios and classes of scenarios is appropriate initially, while quantitative assessments may be applied once the set of all scenarios (hundreds) has been prioritized in several phases. The eight-phase methodology is described in detail and is applied to operations other than war. The eight phases are as follows: Phase I, Scenario Identification-A hierarchical holographic model (HHM) is developed to describe the system's "as planned" or "success" scenario. Phase II, Scenario Filtering-The risk scenarios identified in Phase I are filtered according to the responsibilities and interests of the current system user. Phase III, Bi-Criteria Filtering and Ranking. Phase IV, Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Phase V, Quantitative Ranking-We continue to filter and rank scenarios based on quantitative and qualitative matrix scales of likelihood and consequence; and ordinal response to system resiliency, robustness, redundancy. Phase VI, Risk Management is performed, involving identification of management options for dealing with the filtered scenarios, and estimating the cost, performance benefits, and risk reduction of each. Phase VII, Safeguarding Against Missing Critical Items--We examine the performance of the options selected in Phase VI against the scenarios previously filtered out during Phases II to V. Phase VIII, Operational Feedback-We use the experience and information gained during application to refine the scenario filtering and decision processes in earlier phases. These eight phases reflect a philosophical approach rather than a mechanical methodology. In this philosophy, the filtering and ranking of discrete scenarios is viewed as a precursor to, rather than a substitute for, consideration of the totality of all risk scenarios.     

王茂荫纸币思想新论

作为咸丰货币改革中的重要一员,王茂荫的货币思想一直为国内外学界所关注。中国学界长期认为他是一位反对名目论传统的理论金属论者,但实际却不然。王茂荫货币思想的核心理念是以实运虚,主要体现在两个方面:实际运作中政府需要一定比率的商品货币储备支持纸币;根据预定的货币法则,纸币和商品货币在一定比率下同时流通。他提倡保持商品储备以坚定纸币持有者对纸币的信心,主张权力机构制定纸币的价值,并需要持币者的信任去支持。而货币信用理论认为虽然货币的价值由货币发行机构(通常是政府)所制定,但需要获得持币者的信任才能成功。实用金属论认为在某一历史情况下,纸币的发行需要商品储备的支持。这些恰恰表明了王茂荫是持货币信用理论的实用金属论者。在未受到西方影响的中国货币思想传统中,王茂荫是最富于创见的一位思想者。他提倡的将公共货币和私票相结合的规则如被采纳和认真执行,将会使咸丰货币改革在更大程度上获得成功,很可能会改写历史进程。     

Economic statistical design of X‾-control charts: Modified version of Rahim and Banerjee (1993) model

Rahim and Banerjee considered a constant integral of the hazard function for all sampling intervals. This led the sampling intervals to depend on the extended first sampling interval (h₁). Since this limitation might not lead to an optimal situation, we first showed that elimination of the mentioned restriction did not cause any significant change in the average quality cycle cost. So if one is looking for an ideal cost and the simplicity of the process, the approach taken in Rahim and Banerjee’s study is the best procedure to adopt. Moreover, in many cases of non-uniform sampling method the first sampling interval becomes so large and this can sometimes lead the production system to the out-of-control state due to unexpected failures that might happen during that time. Therefore, we proposed a new model of uniform and non-uniform sampling intervals combination that allows us to confine the value of h₁ without undergoing high costs. The proposed model showed that the quality cycle cost of the proposed model is lower than Rahim and Banerjee’s model in the economic-statistical state. For more illustration, we conducted sensitivity analysis and gave numerical examples.     

Community college field placement internships: supervisors’ perspectives and recommendations

ABSTRACT

Community College human services students represent the future social service workforce. The defining feature of their training is 250 h supervised field placement internship. Despite burgeoning research describing best practices for supervision of Bachelors of social work (BSW) and Masters of social work (MSW), there is no research aimed at supervision for community college students, leaving a gap in our understanding of best practices for supporting community college students’ pedagogy and sustaining partnerships with agencies. This exploratory study offers recommendations for best practices supported by our discovery of the benefits, challenges, and strategies involved with offering community college student internships in New York City human services agencies. We analyzed data from semi-structured interviews with 30 field supervisors through qualitative content analysis. Community college students and agencies both benefit substantially from the field placement, however agencies identified significant social and structural challenges specific to working with community college students that require interventions for both field supervisors and students alike. Suggested interventions aimed at improving supervisor training, procedures for focusing goals of supervision sessions, assisting students in meeting their academic and social needs, as well as supporting supervisors’ professional goals to promote best practices are proposed.     

Agency Is Everywhere,but Agency Is Not Enough: A Conceptual Analysis of Young Women’s Sexual Agency

Through a conceptual analysis of sexual agency, I consider the limitations and distortions of what we typically recognize as agency and whom we recognize as agents. I argue that the dominant perspective of sexual agency as an outward performance of an internal attribute both: underestimates its presence, blinding us to the many manifestations of agency, including among girls imagined to have none; and overestimates its potency, insinuating that individual will is enough to fend off sexual vulnerability forged by social injustice. Instead, I recommend a theoretical lens that permits us to see girls’ sexual agency as a matter of fact, evident even among those who are compelled by social and material conditions to exercise it through sexual compliance, compromise, and concession. Accepting sexual agency as ubiquitous among young women can help reorient attention and action away from changing girls and instead toward changing the pervasive, systemic threats to their well-being, sexual and otherwise.     

Analyzing Collision,Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks

This study examines and analyzes marine accidents that have occurred over the past 20 years in the Black Sea. Geographic information system, human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS), and Bayesian network models are used to analyze the marine accidents. The most important feature distinguishing this study from other studies is that this is the first study to analyze accidents that have occurred across the whole Black Sea. Another important feature is the application of a new HFACS structure to reveal accident formation patterns. The results of this study indicate that accidents occurred in high concentrations in coastal regions of the Black Sea, especially in the Kerch Strait, Novorossiysk, Kilyos, Constanta, Riva, and Batumi regions. The formation of grounding and sinking accidents has been found to be similar in nature; the use of inland and old vessels has been highlighted as important factors in sinking and grounding incidents. However, the sequence of events leading to collision-contact accidents differs from the sequence of events resulting in grounding and sinking accidents. This study aims to provide information to the maritime industry regarding the occurrence of maritime incidents in the Black Sea, in order to assist with reduction and prevention of the marine accidents.     

Correction to: Between Collaboration and Subordination: State and Non-state Actors in Russian Anti-drug Policy

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This paper was intended for the present special section Civil Society in Authoritarian and Hybrid Regimes, but published...