孔子传播思想研究

孔子的传播理念是"和而不同",即"仁"与"礼"的统一。就人际传播而言,"仁"这一概念的提出为平等传播关系的建立提出了理论依据。孔子的传播思想博大精深,包罗万象,涉及传播符号、传播目的、受众思想、舆论思想、传播环境等诸多方面。其对传播符号的论述涉及传播符号的划分、语言的遮蔽性、语言的工具性、传播符号的规范、语言表达的有限性和无限性、形式与内容等方面;其传播目的论带有很强的实践理性色彩,认为传播的目的在于由"学"而"习",在于"言"和"行"的统一;风草论是孔子受众思想的重要方面,他一方面认为君子对民众的教化恰如风过草偃,效果明显,另一方面又认为传播威力虽然巨大,但也有一定限度,取得理想的传播效果非一日之功,这比"魔弹论"更加客观;历史传播方面,他认识到"载之空言"和"见之于行事"两种传播方式迥异的传播效果,发明了"托古立言"的传播方式;他还强调在舆论与独立思考之间加以平衡,既重视舆论又不盲从。     

Internationalization and Performance of Firms in China: Moderating Effects of Governance Structure and the Degree of Centralized Control

This study proposes necessary modifications to the existing internationalization–performance relationship to meet the idiosyncrasies of China-specific contexts. We first hypothesize an S-shaped internationalization–performance relationship as the baseline and then investigate the moderating effects of a firm's governance structure and the degree of centralized government control on the relationship between its internationalization and performance. The results, based on a longitudinal sample of manufacturing firms in China for the 2001–2007 period, indicate that (1) the S-shaped internationalization–performance relationship holds for firms in China; (2) the governance structure moderates the internationalization–performance relationship such that increased profitability through internationalization is more likely for modernized firms than for their conventional local counterparts; and (3) the degree of centralized control moderates the internationalization–performance relationship such that increased profitability through internationalization is more likely for firms affiliated with higher level governments than for those affiliated with lower-level governments.     

Temporal Disaggregation: Methods,Information Loss,and Diagnostics

This research provides a generalized framework to disaggregate lower-frequency time series and evaluate the disaggregation performance. The proposed framework combines two models in separate stages: a linear regression model to exploit related independent variables in the first stage and a state–space model to disaggregate the residual from the regression in the second stage. For the purpose of providing a set of practical criteria for assessing the disaggregation performance, we measure the information loss that occurs during temporal aggregation while examining what effects take place when aggregating data. To validate the proposed framework, we implement Monte Carlo simulations and provide two empirical studies. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

SIMEX estimation for single-index model with covariate measurement error

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - In this paper, we consider the single-index measurement error model with mismeasured covariates in the nonparametric part. To solve the problem, we develop a...     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Building a health communication brand for University of Texas System tobacco control

Objective: Despite declining cigarette smoking rates in the US, there is a continued need for tobacco prevention education campaigns to reach young adults. Recognizing the need for improved tobacco control messaging, the University of Texas (UT) System engaged The University of Texas at Austin Center for Health Communication to develop a brand and message that would strengthen tobacco control efforts at its 14 institutions. Methods: This article describes the iterative process involved in creating a brand for tobacco control, including an environmental scan, identifying potential message themes, and creating and refining logos. Results: This article highlights the process of developing a system-wide tobacco control brand. Specifically, the process included coordinating an interdisciplinary team with content and design experts, and presenting ideas to stakeholders for serial feedback and refinement, among others. Conclusions: Ultimately, this project offers a model for other systems of higher education interested in pursuing similar initiatives.     

基于混合CVaR的供应链绿色研发-广告决策与协调机制研究

针对消费者绿色偏好异质性而引发产品需求不确定性的情形,构建了基于混合CVaR准则的绿色供应链双层风险决策模型,研究了一个具有不同风险态度制造商与一个具有不同风险态度零售商所组成供应链的最优绿色研发投入及广告宣传水平等决策问题,分析了成员不同风险态度对供应链相关决策的影响。在此基础上,提出一个基于风险补偿的双向成本分担契约协调机制,并给出实现供应链协调的合理转移支付区间,最后通过数值分析验证该协调机制的有效性。结果表明,无论供应链成员表现为何种风险态度,该契约均能实现供应链协调,并且对由风险规避制造商与风险追逐零售商所组成的供应链协调效果最为显著。     

Betting Decision Under Break-Streak Pattern: Evidence from Casino Gaming

Cognitive bias is prevalent among gamblers, especially those with gambling problems. Grounded in the heuristics theories, this study contributes to the literature by examining a cognitive bias triggered by the break streak pattern in the casino setting. We postulate that gamblers tend to bet on the latest outcome when there is a break-streak pattern. Moreover, three determinants of the betting decision under break-streak pattern, including the streak length of the alternative outcome, the frequency of the latest outcome, and gender, were identified and examined in this study. A non-participatory observational study was conducted among the Cussec gamblers in a casino in Macao. An analysis of 1229 bets confirms our postulation, particularly when the streak of the alternative outcome is long, the latest outcome is frequent, and the gamblers are females. The findings provide meaningful implications for casino management and public policymakers regarding the minimization of gambling harm.