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211.
Armando Serrano‐Lombillo Ignacio Escuder‐Bueno Manuel G. de Membrillera‐Ortuño Luis Altarejos‐García 《Risk analysis》2011,31(6):1000-1015
In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study. 相似文献
212.
It is argued that migration from Mexico to the US and return migration are determined by international wage differentials
and preferences for origin. We use a model of job search, savings and migration to show that job turnover is a crucial determinant
of the migration process. We estimate this model by Simulated Method of Moments (SMM) and find that migration practically
disappears, it goes down from 19 to 0.5%, had Mexico US arrival rates while employed. A lower decrease in migration, to 7%,
occurs by an increase in Mexican wage offers. On the other hand, doubling migration costs reduces migration rates from 19
to 5%, while subsidizing return migration in $300 reduces migration rates only to 14%. 相似文献
213.
村级组织财务管理是社会主义新农村建设的重要内容,是完善农村公共产品融资机制的制度基础。对贵州省7个地州市9个县31个行政村的实地调研结果显示,贵州农村村级组织财务管理存在的主要问题是:会计基础工作薄弱,财务管理制度不规范;会计人员选聘机制不合理,人员素质亟待提高;民主监督职能弱化,审计监督乏力;村级债务较为严重等。为了切实提高农村村级组织财务管理水平,必须扎实推进"村财乡代管"制度,改革村级财务人员选任模式,健全民主理财监督制度,加强村级财务审计监督,并努力化解村级债务问题。 相似文献
214.
215.
J.M. Muñoz Pichardo J. Muñoz García J.M. Fernández Ponce M.D. Jiménez Garnero 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(3):529-547
In this paper we obtain several influence measures for the multivariate linear general model through the approach proposed by Muñoz-Pichardo et al. (1995), which is based on the concept of conditional bias. An interesting charasteristic of this approach is that it does not require any distributional hypothesis. Appling the obtained results to the multivariate regression model, we obtain some measures proposed by other authors. Nevertheless, on the results obtained in this paper, we emphasize two aspects. First, they provide a theoretical foundation for measures proposed by other authors for the mul¬tivariate regression model. Second, they can be applied to any linear model that can be formulated as a particular case of the multivariate linear general model. In particular, we carry out an application to the multivariate analysis of covariance. 相似文献
216.
217.
库车拗陷的勘探实践表明,盐层与油气密切相关。通过对2条地震测线的分析发现,盐层、盐上地层、盐下地层变形看似孤立,实际相互影响。盐层构造变形一般发育在古隆起上部,盐上构造变形主要发生在盐枕构造的翼部,无盐地区主要发育基底卷入式构造。膏盐层可以延缓盐下地层烃源岩的热演化程度,可以改善盐下储层的储集性能;膏盐层本身也有可能成为油气储集层;膏盐层具有形成超压封闭和物性封闭的双重封闭机制,对盐下油气藏的保存极为有利;膏盐层的塑性流动特性,使得盐下构造圈闭在强烈的构造挤压中得以保存。 相似文献
218.
Leonor Gallardo Pablo Burillo Marta García-Tascón Juan J. Salinero 《Social indicators research》2009,94(2):297-317
Sports facility planning by the public authorities should be considered to be one of the main policies to have an indirect
influence on the aim of ensuring a healthy population, as well as reducing its physical inactivity. Our research aims to study
and compare the state of sports infrastructures in the regions of Spain, using a synthetic indicators. Our results should
serve not only to detect the vast imparity between different regions, which has come about because of varying investment and
management with regard to sports infrastructures, but also to redirect building planning and sports management policies onto
the right path, and also give food for thought. 相似文献
219.
本文通过对相关实证研究文献的疏理,从农民工总量规模、结构分布、对输出地贡献和对输入地影响四个方面对中国农民工的总体性状况进行了描述与分析。在总量规模的分析中,我们需要注意各调查的统计口径,值得注意的是,根据最新发布的农普调查数据,农村外出从业劳动力已达1.3亿,此处数据不含随外出从业劳动力外出的非劳动力人口。外出务工经商者以初中文化的青壮年为主,行业分布以制造业、建筑业和服务业为主,长距离迁移占很高比例。农民工跨区域转移这种就业结构变动对我国经济增长贡献巨大,已有研究估计对GDP增量贡献在20%左右。从输出地来看,总的影响是积极的,特别是收入状况的改善,但也留下了数量庞大的留守族。 相似文献
220.
Mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTE) potentials are an alternative to discretization and Monte Carlo methods for solving
hybrid Bayesian networks. Any probability density function (PDF) can be approximated by an MTE potential, which can always
be marginalized in closed form. This allows propagation to be done exactly using the Shenoy-Shafer architecture for computing
marginals, with no restrictions on the construction of a join tree. This paper presents MTE potentials that approximate standard
PDF’s and applications of these potentials for solving inference problems in hybrid Bayesian networks. These approximations
will extend the types of inference problems that can be modelled with Bayesian networks, as demonstrated using three examples. 相似文献