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Marina S. Paez Dani GamermanFlávia M.P.F. Landim Esther Salazar 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2008
In this work we present a flexible class of linear models to treat observations made in discrete time and continuous space, where the regression coefficients vary smoothly in time and space. This kind of model is particularly appealing in situations where the effect of one or more explanatory processes on the response present substantial heterogeneity in both dimensions. We describe how to perform inference for this class of models and also how to perform forecasting in time and interpolation in space, using simulation techniques. The performance of the algorithm to estimate the parameters of the model and to perform prediction in time is investigated with simulated data sets. The proposed methodology is used to model pollution levels in the Northeast of the United States. 相似文献
33.
Linda P. Dekker Kirsten Visser Esther J.M. van der Vegt Athanasios Maras Jan van der Ende Nouchka T. Tick Frank C. Verhulst Kirstin Greaves‐Lord 《Journal of research on adolescence》2020,30(2):487-501
The private nature of psychosexual functioning leads adolescents and their parents to have different perspectives, which highlights studying parent–child informant discrepancies in this domain. We investigated informant discrepancy in psychosexual functioning, using the self‐report and parent report versions of the Teen Transition Inventory (TTI), of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; 136 parent–child dyads) compared to adolescents from the general population (GP; 70 parent–child dyads). Significantly larger informant discrepancies exist in ASD dyads than GP dyads in most domains of psychosexual functioning, except for Body image, Sexual behavior, and Confidence in the future. It is important to use and pay attention to both informants, as discrepancies are relevant for both research and clinical practice regarding psychosexual functioning. 相似文献
34.
Rita Esther Zapata-Vázquez Anthony O'Hagan Leonardo Soares Bastos 《Journal of applied statistics》2014,41(9):1919-1933
Eliciting expert knowledge about several uncertain quantities is a complex task when those quantities exhibit associations. A well-known example of such a problem is eliciting knowledge about a set of uncertain proportions which must sum to 1. The usual approach is to assume that the expert's knowledge can be adequately represented by a Dirichlet distribution, since this is by far the simplest multivariate distribution that is appropriate for such a set of proportions. It is also the most convenient, particularly when the expert's prior knowledge is to be combined with a multinomial sample since then the Dirichlet is the conjugate prior family. Several methods have been described in the literature for eliciting beliefs in the form of a Dirichlet distribution, which typically involve eliciting from the expert enough judgements to identify uniquely the Dirichlet hyperparameters. We describe here a new method which employs the device of over-fitting, i.e. eliciting more than the minimal number of judgements, in order to (a) produce a more carefully considered Dirichlet distribution and (b) ensure that the Dirichlet distribution is indeed a reasonable fit to the expert's knowledge. The method has been implemented in a software extension of the Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) to facilitate the multivariate elicitation process. 相似文献
35.
Esther Willing 《Policy Studies》2016,37(6):535-550
ABSTRACTThe use of health targets as a form of performance measurement has become more prominent internationally as governments have sought to control public expenditure, produce greater efficiency and improve accountability. However, health targets have faced criticism for their potential to produce negative outcomes within a health system. This paper examines how a health target was used as a policy instrument within the New Zealand health system to improve immunisation coverage at two years of age. It explores how the immunisation health target was implemented within four case study sites and discusses the effectiveness of the health target as a policy instrument for improving immunisation coverage and addressing persistent immunisation inequities. Measuring and monitoring performance towards the immunisation health target improved accountability for immunisation coverage within the New Zealand health system and focused attention on improving immunisation coverage in a way that previous policy attempts had failed to do. Health targets may be an effective policy instrument for creating change within specific areas of a health system if their potential for dysfunctional consequences are taken into consideration at the outset. 相似文献
36.
Betty J. Ruth Jamie Wyatt Marshall Esther E. M. Velásquez Sara S. Bachman 《Journal of Social Work Education》2013,49(1):186-194
Dual-degree programs in public health and social work continue to proliferate, yet there has been little research on master’s of social work (MSW)/master’s of public health (MPH) graduates. The purpose of this study was to describe and better understand the self-reported professional experiences, identities, roles, and outcomes associated with 1 group of graduates from an established MSW/MPH program. A 57-question electronic survey was administered to 214 alumni in 2010; the response rate was 71.4% (n = 153). Findings provide a snapshot of public health social work alumni experiences, including diverse employment opportunities, high career satisfaction, and a strong sense of reported public health and social work integration in the workplace. 相似文献
37.
Esther M. Hakvoort Henny M. W. Bos Frank Van Balen Jo M. A. Hermanns 《Journal of divorce & remarriage》2013,54(2):125-146
Divorced mothers and their school-aged children in 50 single-mother families and 37 stepfather families reported on mothers' ex-partner relationships, children's relationships with both parents, and children's well-being. A 2 (family structure) × 2 (gender) multivariate analysis of variance revealed a main effect of gender: Mothers with sons report higher levels of ex-partner relationship satisfaction. An interaction effect was also found: Boys in single-mother families report more acceptance and fewer conflicts than boys in stepfather families. Multiple regression analysis revealed that mother–ex-partner relationships are associated with children's problem behavior, whereas child–nonresidential father relationships are associated with positive aspects of children's well-being. The results indicate that family structure itself is not associated with child adjustment. What matters most is the quality of family relationships. 相似文献
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39.
Esther C. Schroeder 《Demography》1987,24(4):649-661
The labor force projections perform well, even for small areas, which suggests that changes in local labor force participation rates can be approximated by national changes. In fact, the mean absolute percent errors are low even when the previously calculated population projections are used. The unemployment projections do not do as well, and using 1980 census labor force data instead of previously calculated labor force projections offers no improvement in the results. A two-step study is needed to determine why the errors are so large. First, the state level changes from 1970 to 1980 should be compared with national changes to determine the difference in unemployment rate changes by race and sex. Second, state level data on the occupational mix should be examined for the relationship between this and the changes in state level unemployment rates by race and sex. It is hypothesized that the first step will show that even state level changes in unemployment rates by race and sex cannot be well approximated by the national changes and the second step will show that some of the variation can be explained by state differences in occupational mix. Further studies should be made to determine how the calculation of national changes affects the results. Changes in labor force participation rates seem to follow trends, and therefore extrapolation may not have much effect on the results. Although using the actual changes in unemployment from 1970 to the latest year available as a proxy for the changes from 1970 to the target year may have a serious detrimental effect on the unemployment projections, if some of the variation in the national changes in race and sex can be explained and some adjustments made, the actual changes may be the best proxy to use. 相似文献
40.
Protective Supervision, in most states, is defined in statute as an option in which the child is allowed to remain in the home of high-risk parents under the authority of the court, with supervision provided by the child protection system. Protective Supervision provides states an option to fulfill the federal mandate, as expressed in its guidance on the Child and Family Services Review, to assure that children are safely maintained in their homes whenever possible and appropriate. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of published work on this option. Further, the relationship between child protection and the judicial system, implicit in Protective Supervision, is rarely examined. In response to this dearth of information, an exploratory study was undertaken in Minnesota, funded by the Minnesota Department of Human Services. Data were derived from focus groups in every region of the state, with both child protection and judicial system participants. This study offers insights into the complicated nature of the partnership between two complex systems — child welfare and the court system. Currently, there is wide variation in how Protective Supervision is understood and practiced. However, where there is mutual respect between child welfare and the courts, Protective Supervision offers a useful tool. 相似文献