Total least squares solution for compositional data using linear models

The restrictive properties of compositional data, that is multivariate data with positive parts that carry only relative information in their components, call for special care to be taken while performing standard statistical methods, for example, regression analysis. Among the special methods suitable for handling this problem is the total least squares procedure (TLS, orthogonal regression, regression with errors in variables, calibration problem), performed after an appropriate log-ratio transformation. The difficulty or even impossibility of deeper statistical analysis (confidence regions, hypotheses testing) using the standard TLS techniques can be overcome by calibration solution based on linear regression. This approach can be combined with standard statistical inference, for example, confidence and prediction regions and bounds, hypotheses testing, etc., suitable for interpretation of results. Here, we deal with the simplest TLS problem where we assume a linear relationship between two errorless measurements of the same object (substance, quantity). We propose an iterative algorithm for estimating the calibration line and also give confidence ellipses for the location of unknown errorless results of measurement. Moreover, illustrative examples from the fields of geology, geochemistry and medicine are included. It is shown that the iterative algorithm converges to the same values as those obtained using the standard TLS techniques. Fitted lines and confidence regions are presented for both original and transformed compositional data. The paper contains basic principles of linear models and addresses many related problems.     

Helpful citizens and caring families: Patterns of informal help and caregiving in Sweden in a 17‐year perspective

Jegermalm M, Grassman EJ. Helpful citizens and caring families: patterns of informal help and caregiving in Sweden in a 17‐year perspective This article reports on an analysis of informal help and caregiving in Sweden with, for the first time, a focus on patterns of change over 17 years regarding scope, type of caregivers and the recipients of help. The discussion is based on results from a national survey repeated four times between 1992 and 2009. In the 1990s, the figures were stable, but from the late 1990s to 2009, there seems to have been a dramatic increase in the extent of informal help giving. Concerning types of helpers, the patterns implied involvement not only from family members, but also from other types of helpers. Two interpretative perspectives were used in the analysis: the first from recent welfare state changes and the substitution argument; the second from the present debate on civil society and its possible and changing role. These perspectives represent two partly complementary approaches to the understanding of the dynamics of informal involvement in contemporary Swedish society.     

Statistical Inference for Transformation Inhomogeneous Point Processes

Abstract.  Statistical inference for exponential inhomogeneous Markov point processes by transformation is discussed. It is argued that the inhomogeneity parameter can be estimated, using a partial likelihood based on an inhomogeneous Poisson point process. The inhomogeneity parameter can thereby be estimated without taking the interaction into account, which simplifies the statistical analysis considerably. Data analysis and simulation experiments support the results.     

“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?

The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.     

Changes in psychosocial and work-related characteristics among Clubhouse members: a preliminary report

The aim of this study was to explore the changes in work-related abilities of members after attending the Clubhouse program for 12 weeks. The extent to which the changes would contribute to members' performance on simulated work tasks was also investigated. A total of 39 people with mental illnesses, primarily schizophrenia, attending Phoenix Clubhouse participated in the study. Seventeen were newly recruited members to the Clubhouse. The other 22, who served as the control group, were existing members who had been attending the Clubhouse for more than three months. All the participants were assessed by the McCarron-dial System (Observational Emotional Inventory-Revised, McCarron Assessment of Neuromuscular Development), Cognistat, Chinese Work Personality Profile, WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and WHOQOL-Bref-HK at the baseline and 12 weeks after attending the Clubhouse program. They were required to complete a set of simulated work tasks after 12 weeks. New members showed significant improvement in emotional-coping abilities (impulsive-frustration and depression-withdrawal) and work personality (task orientation, social skills, and team work) after attending the Clubhouse program for 12 weeks. The increase in emotional-coping skills (depression-withdrawal) was found to contribute to better performance on typing tasks, whereas emotional coping (anxiety) contributed to better performance on cleansing tasks. Three months' participation in the Clubhouse program appears to have positive effects on emotional-coping abilities and work personality. The emotional-coping abilities were found to predict good performance in simulated clerical and maintenance jobs. Recommendations and suggestions for further research are discussed.     

Construct validity of the instrument DOA: a dialogue about ability related to work

This study examined the construct validity of the newly developed instrument A Dialogue About Ability Related To Work (DOA). DOA [18] was developed using concepts from the Model of Human Occupation [20] as theoretical framework. The instrument assumes the assessment of work ability by both the client and the occupational therapist, and is followed by a dialogue which is expected to distinguish possible goal-setting for further rehabilitation [18,19]. Twenty-one professionals and 126 clients from three clinics in Sweden participated in the study. All clients were involved as outpatients in psychiatric work rehabilitation in county councils or community services. Results of a Rasch analysis test indicated that items are well separated and generally work together in five unidimensional continuums to measure work ability. Twenty-nine of 34 items showed goodness-of-fit statistics, which means acceptable infit MnSq values from > or = 0.6 to < or = 1.4 in association with Z values from -2 to 2. The five misfit items have to be revised. The study has indicated that DOA is a valid instrument in psychiatric work rehabilitation and ought to be useful in the dialogue between occupational therapists and clients about goalsetting and treatment planning.     

Predictors of Nursing Home Admission: A Social Work Perspective

Abstract

Institutionalisation of geriatric patients is a growing trend in ageing societies, such as Singapore. Earlier studies focused on the sociodemographic profile and attributes of nursing home residents and applications, but neglected to address the predictors of nursing home admission from a social work perspective. The present retrospective study identifies independent risk factors that predispose a patient to a nursing home discharge from a general rehabilitation ward in a community hospital in Singapore, with a multidisciplinary emphasis on clinical intervention. Factor analysis results reinforced findings that functional impairment and dementia are consistent predictors of nursing home admission. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that positive predictors of nursing home admission include older age, length of hospital stay, low socioeconomic status, dementia, and functional disability. Social work interventions include early referrals to the medical social worker, so that options for social and family support can be explored prior to deciding to place patients in a nursing home. Other interventions include suitable family therapy and counselling for patients and their families.     

Affect's Effects: Considering Art-Activism and the 2001 Crisis in Argentina

Anxious of straying too far from traditional rational actor models and an unrelenting positivism, social movement scholars have displayed a persistent tendency to overlook the specificities of visual tools and aesthetic experience in claim-making and political protest. Often, as a direct consequence, the possibilities for mobilization and the matrices within which action takes place are described and understood in ways that are oversimplified, even distorted. Notably, small steps have been taken to overcome these distortions by building in a theory of affect that reserves a crucial space for the extra-discursive in the study of contentious politics. Extending some of these insights, this article reveals how an affect-informed approach can be particularly illuminating in studies of art-activism. It takes stencil protests from the aftermath of the 2001 crisis in Argentina as a case in point, discussing affects and their effects on porteño street artists. In so doing, it strengthens the case for greater incorporation of affect as a tool for understanding in literatures that deal with questions of framing, art-activism and the possibilities for social change.