Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

The social stratification of tongue shape for postvocalic /r/ in Scottish English1

The sociolinguistic modelling of phonological variation and change is almost exclusively based on auditory and acoustic analyses of speech. One phenomenon which has proved elusive when considered in these ways is the variation in postvocalic /r/ in Scottish English. This study therefore shifts to speech production: we present a socioarticulatory study of variation of postvocalic /r/ in CVr (e.g. car) words, using a socially‐stratified ultrasound tongue imaging corpus of speech collected in eastern central Scotland in 2008. Our results show social stratification of /r/ at the articulatory level, with middle‐class speakers using bunched articulations, while working‐class speakers use greater proportions of tongue‐tip and tongue‐front raised variants. Unlike articulatory variation of /r/ in American English, the articulatory variants in our Scottish English corpus are both auditorily distinct from one another, and correlate with strong and weak ends of an auditory rhotic continuum, which also shows clear social stratification.     

The Role of Emotions in Risk Communication

We present two experiments investigating the role of emotions concerning technological and natural hazards. In the first experiment, technological hazards aroused stronger emotions, and were considered to be riskier than natural hazards. No differences were found between the texts versus audio presentations. However, the presence of pictures aroused stronger emotions and increased the perceived risk. Emotions play a mediating role between hazard types and perceived risk, as well as between pictures and perceived risk. The second experiment adopted real‐world materials from webpages and TV. Emotions again play a mediating role between pictorial information and risk perception. Moreover, specific emotions were found to be associated with different types of action tendencies. For example, loss‐based emotions (e.g., fear, regret) tend to lead to prevention strategies, whereas ethical emotions (e.g., anger) lead to aggressive behavior. We also find that loss‐based emotions in the technical hazard scenario trigger more coping strategies (from prevention to retaliation) than in the natural hazard scenario.     

A Strategic Approach to Rights: Lessons from Clientelism in Rural Peru

International norms of social, economic and political rights are presented as a means of transforming social relations in developing countries. Yet, when rights norms are introduced into domestic practice, they do not always produce liberal, democratic results. Instead, rights and local practices of clientelism mix. This article examines this political process in rural Peru. Alternatives to clientelism emerge when NGOs and international development agencies forge strategic and selective coalitions between urban middle‐class sectors and the rural poor. This calls for an explicit politics of advancing rights by any means necessary: accepting hybrid forms when inevitable, incorporating excluded groups when possible, and striking alliances that displace traditional elites.     

Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen

Yemen is an oil‐exporting and food‐importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre‐existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil‐driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro‐poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.     

Relational and Overt Aggression in Childhood and Adolescence: Clarifying Mean‐level Gender Differences and Associations with Peer Acceptance

Research on relational aggression has drawn attention to how girls may be likely to aggress, but the role of gender is not fully understood. There are opposing views regarding whether relational aggression is most common among girls. Current findings demonstrate that when gender differences in relational aggression are assessed with peer nominations, gender differences favoring girls are more likely: (1) in adolescence than childhood; and (2) when statistical overlap with overt aggression is controlled. Results also indicated that associations of relational aggression with peer acceptance depend on the aggressor's gender, the peer rater's gender, and whether overlap with overt aggression is controlled. Associations of relational aggression with lower acceptance became non‐significant when overt aggression was controlled, suggesting that relational aggression displayed in isolation may not damage acceptance. In fact, in mid‐adolescence, girls’ relational aggression predicted greater liking by boys. Reducing relational aggression among adolescent girls may be especially challenging if the behavior is linked with acceptance by boys.     

Reporting cumulative proportion of subjects with an adverse event based on data from multiple studies

Experience has shown us that when data are pooled from multiple studies to create an integrated summary, an analysis based on naïvely‐pooled data is vulnerable to the mischief of Simpson's Paradox. Using the proportions of patients with a target adverse event (AE) as an example, we demonstrate the Paradox's effect on both the comparison and the estimation of the proportions. While meta analytic approaches have been recommended and increasingly used for comparing safety data between treatments, reporting proportions of subjects experiencing a target AE based on data from multiple studies has received little attention. In this paper, we suggest two possible approaches to report these cumulative proportions. In addition, we urge that regulatory guidelines on reporting such proportions be established so that risks can be communicated in a scientifically defensible and balanced manner. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adolescents' Emotional Experiences of Mother–Adolescent Conflict Predict Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms

Research on adolescent emotion has generally focused on expressions of emotion; however, there are reasons to believe that adolescents' experiences of emotion may be related to adolescent development in unique and important ways. This study examined the relation of adolescents' emotional experiences of conflict with their mothers to their internalizing and externalizing symptoms at three time points, each a year apart. After participating in videotaped conflict negotiation tasks with their mothers, adolescents (N=80) watched the videotape of their interactions and used a joystick to make continuous ratings of how negative, positive, or neutral they felt during the discussions. Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used to assess relations among their continuous emotion ratings and their internalizing and externalizing symptoms 1 year before the interaction task, at the time of the interaction task, and 1 year later. Adolescents' externalizing symptoms at the time of the conflict task were associated with negative emotion that decreased across the conflict discussion. Relations between emotional experience and internalizing symptoms a year later were moderated by adolescent gender, revealing that a tolerance for increasing negative emotion predicts fewer future internalizing symptoms for girls. The importance of adolescents' ability to tolerate negative emotion during normal developmental conflicts is discussed.