A stochastic model of industrial fluctuations: An international comparison

This paper presents a stochastic model of production fluctuations. It compares the distributions of observed duration times for expansionary and contractionary phases with those which would be expected if production fluctuations were generated by a random process. From an analysis of the post World War II production time series of seven developed countries, it was concluded that the only ‘cycles’ in industrial activity are ‘Monte Carlo cycles’.     

A QUARTET OF SEMIGROUPS FOR MODEL SPECIFICATION,ROBUSTNESS, PRICES OF RISK,AND MODEL DETECTION

A representative agent fears that his model, a continuous time Markov process with jump and diffusion components, is misspecified and therefore uses robust control theory to make decisions. Under the decision maker's approximating model, cautious behavior puts adjustments for model misspecification into market prices for risk factors. We use a statistical theory of detection to quantify how much model misspecification the decision maker should fear, given his historical data record. A semigroup is a collection of objects connected by something like the law of iterated expectations. The law of iterated expectations defines the semigroup for a Markov process, while similar laws define other semigroups. Related semigroups describe (1) an approximating model; (2) a model misspecification adjustment to the continuation value in the decision maker's Bellman equation; (3) asset prices; and (4) the behavior of the model detection statistics that we use to calibrate how much robustness the decision maker prefers. Semigroups 2, 3, and 4 establish a tight link between the market price of uncertainty and a bound on the error in statistically discriminating between an approximating and a worst case model. (JEL: C00, D51, D81, E1, G12)     

Pathological Gambling and Motor Impulsivity: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

Motor impulsivity, which is an impairment in withholding and cancelling inappropriate responses, may account for the inability for pathological gamblers (PGs) to inhibit their urges to gamble. The aim of this systematic review was to perform a quantitative and qualitative synthesis of existing studies in order to assess whether PGs without comorbid substance use disorder have elevated motor impulsivity, relative to healthy controls. An exhaustive literature search led to the identification of 20 studies which met inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis was then conducted on the following measures: stop signal reaction time from the stop signal task; commission errors, omission errors, and Go reaction time from the Go/No-Go task; and the motor impulsiveness subscale of the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-Motor). The results revealed a moderate to large mean effect size of stop signal reaction time, small to moderate mean effect sizes for commission errors, omission errors and Go reaction time, and a large mean effect size for the BIS-Motor. Significant heterogeneity in effect sizes was observed on most behavioural measures, but not for the BIS-Motor or omission errors on the Go/No-Go task. Overall, these results suggest that motor impulsivity may be one of the features of PG psychopathology, accounting for their poor inhibitory control over gambling behaviours. Moreover, other deficits in sustained attention, or more generally in executive/cognitive control, may be present in PGs. We discuss the implications, limitations of existing research, and suggested avenues for future studies, particularly the need to acknowledge heterogeneity amongst PGs and amongst different behavioural measures.     

Survival,abundance, and capture rate of eastern cottontail rabbits in an urban park

Eastern cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus floridanus) are common, conspicuous denizens of urban environments. They are associated with human-wildlife conflict due to vegetation damage. Prior to this study, population dynamics of this species in urban environments remained largely uncharacterized. For three consecutive winters, we used classic field ecology methods (mark-recapture and mark–resight surveys) to estimate demographic parameters of rabbits in a city park in Chicago, Illinois. Rabbits occurred in densities as high as 16.3 rabbits/ha, which is comparatively high for the Midwestern United States. An annual survivorship of 30.4?±?12.9 % SE was similar to that observed in natural environments in similar climates. This result refuted our hypothesis that urban rabbits would have higher annual survival rates than rabbits in natural settings due to food subsidies supplied by landscaping in parks. Mean distance between trap locations for rabbits trapped three or more times was 43.14?±?30.01 m SD, suggesting that rabbits in the urban study area had smaller home ranges than rabbits in non-human-dominated habitats. This study contributes to our understanding of population dynamics of a human-wildlife conflict species in urban environments and provides useful information for managers dealing with damage caused by rabbits. The mark-resight method employed here could be used by managers to estimate pre- and post-management population sizes of other conflict species, for example Canada geese (Branta Canadensis), in parks and green spaces, provided that the species is trappable, visible, and individuals have relatively small home ranges.     

The Work Experiences of Social Workers: Factors Impacting Compassion Satisfaction and Workplace Stress

Abstract

In 2015, over 6,000 licensed social workers in 13?US states responded to an online survey regarding perceptions and feelings about their work, as well as numerous personal and practice issues. Specifically, this study examined participants’ levels of compassion satisfaction and workplace stress, and then determined through multivariate analyses what demographic factors, behavioral and physical health problems, practice issues, fields of practice, and workplace environment issues impacted these two variables.

The findings indicate that participants demonstrated high levels of compassion satisfaction, with a wide range of workplace stress levels. Workplace environment issues had the greatest impact on both variables, with social workers’ mental health problems, physical health status, and certain demographic factors such as race also influencing them. Over 82% of respondents expressed agreement that they were glad that they chose social work as a profession. The results appear to demonstrate that despite being a potentially stressful occupation, licensed social workers tend to experience significant emotional satisfaction from their work. On the other hand, the results also highlight the need for further research to determine how to enhance support for social workers in the workplace in order to not only reduce workplace stress, but also to increase compassion satisfaction.     

THE EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGES ON EMPLOYMENT: A FACTOR MODEL APPROACH

This paper uses factor model methods to resolve issues in the minimum wage‐employment debate. Factor model methods provide a more flexible way of addressing concerns related to unobserved heterogeneity that are robust to critiques from either side of the debate. The factor model estimators produce minimum wage‐employment elasticity estimates that are much smaller than the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) results and are not statistically different from zero. These results hold for many specifications and datasets from the minimum wage‐employment literature. A simulation shows that unobserved common factors can explain the different estimates seen across methodologies in the literature. (JEL C23, J21, K31)     

Attitudes Toward Homosexuality Among Young Adults: Connections to Gender Role Identity,Gender-Typed Activities,and Religiosity

Individual differences in attitudes toward homosexuality have been linked to numerous personality and demographic variables. This study investigated the influence that gender role identity, involvement in gender-typed activities, and religiosity plays in this relationship. The sample included 194 undergraduate students from a Northeastern university. Analyses revealed that both males and females who held a more masculine gender role identity and individual commitment to religion scored higher on measures of homophobia and heteronormativity, whereas there was no association between spiritual meaning in life and attitudes toward homosexuality. Among males, but not females, more masculine gender identity and less spiritual meaning in life was associated with greater homophobia. The importance of the findings for research on the origins of attitudes toward individuals with a homosexual orientation are discussed, as well as the potential directions for future research on connections between gender role identity, religious affiliation, and attitudes toward gays and lesbians.