Paradoxes of Providing Rural Social Services: The Case of Homeless Youth

Abstract Economic and demographic changes in rural areas continue to introduce big‐city problems in small towns. These communities' ability and willingness to respond are likely to be influenced by the geography, culture, and array of organizations in rural places. But how these characteristics of rural places shape local response is hard to predict and as yet unexplored. This article reports data from interviews with social‐service providers and homeless youth in a rural county in the northwestern United States, drawing insights from both groups about the challenges of providing social services in rural places. Findings about drug use, sexual abuse and prostitution in rural communities illustrate how aspects of a rural context can influence the way small towns address social problems.     

Occam's shadow: Levels of analysis in evolutionary ecology--where to next?

Evolutionary ecology is the study of evolutionary processes, and the ecological conditions that influence them. A fundamental paradigm underlying the study of evolution is natural selection. Although there are a variety of operational definitions for natural selection in the literature, perhaps the most general one is that which characterizes selection as the process whereby heritable variation in fitness associated with variation in one or more phenotypic traits leads to intergenerational change in the frequency distribution of those traits. The past 20 years have witnessed a marked increase in the precision and reliability of our ability to estimate one or more components of fitness and characterize natural selection in wild populations, owing particularly to significant advances in methods for analysis of data from marked individuals. In this paper, we focus on several issues that we believe are important considerations for the application and development of these methods in the context of addressing questions in evolutionary ecology. First, our traditional approach to estimation often rests upon analysis of aggregates of individuals, which in the wild may reflect increasingly non-random (selected) samples with respect to the trait(s) of interest. In some cases, analysis at the aggregate level, rather than the individual level, may obscure important patterns. While there are a growing number of analytical tools available to estimate parameters at the individual level, and which can cope (to varying degrees) with progressive selection of the sample, the advent of new methods does not reduce the need to consider carefully the appropriate level of analysis in the first place. Estimation should be motivated a priori by strong theoretical analysis. Doing so provides clear guidance, in terms of both (i) assisting in the identification of realistic and meaningful models to include in the candidate model set, and (ii) providing the appropriate context under which the results are interpreted. Second, while it is true that selection (as defined) operates at the level of the individual, the selection gradient is often (if not generally) conditional on the abundance of the population. As such, it may be important to consider estimating transition rates conditional on both the parameter values of the other individuals in the population (or at least their distribution), and population abundance. This will undoubtedly pose a considerable challenge, for both single- and multi-strata applications. It will also require renewed consideration of the estimation of abundance, especially for open populations. Thirdly, selection typically operates on dynamic, individually varying traits. Such estimation may require characterizing fitness in terms of individual plasticity in one or more state variables, constituting analysis of the norms of reaction of individuals to variable environments. This can be quite complex, especially for traits that are under facultative control. Recent work has indicated that the pattern of selection on such traits is conditional on the relative rates of movement among and frequency of spatially heterogeneous habitats, suggesting analyses of evolution of life histories in open populations can be misleading in some cases.     

Trading Equity for Efficiency in Environmental Protection? Environmental Justice Effects from the SO2 Allowance Trading Program*

Objective. Arthur Okun made plain the fundamental conflict between efficiency and equity that arises in the pursuit of policy goals ( Okun, 1974 ). Although Okun was speaking about government tax and spending policy, the potential conflict between efficiency and equity is also manifest at the nexus of two of the most far‐reaching changes in the environmental policy arena: the adoption of market‐like tools for pollution control and the quest for environmental justice. The article assesses this potential tradeoff by determining whether the pursuit of efficiency through the Clean Air Act Amendment's (CAA) sulfur dioxide allowance trading program (ATP) inadvertently transfers pollution into poor and minority communities. Methods. I employ Probit, Tobit, and GLS models using data for all SO₂ trading activity between January 1995 and March 2009 to estimate whether allowance trading concentrates SO₂ emissions in poor communities and communities of color. When using these models, I control for sample selectivity and for possible bias stemming from the modifiable areal unit problem. Results. The ATP does not concentrate sulfur dioxide emissions in black or Hispanic communities. To the contrary, communities with high percentages of black and Hispanic residents experience fewer imports of sulfur dioxide. Allowance trading does transfer SO₂ emissions into poorly educated communities. Conclusions. There is no inherent tradeoff between efficiency and equity when using market‐based instruments for pollution control. Policymakers, however, might make an effort to design and implement future emissions trading programs in a manner that reduces the monitoring costs of tracking emissions trading. By reducing monitoring costs, policymakers may prevent the concentration of emissions in poorly educated communities while preserving the efficiency benefits of these instruments.     

Is There a Right Way to Nudge? The Practice and Ethics of Choice Architecture

Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler’s Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness presents an influential account of why ‘choice architecture’ should be used to ‘nudge’ people into making better decisions than they would otherwise make. In this essay we: (1) explain the main concepts that Thaler and Sunstein rely upon to defend their project; (2) clarify the main conceptual problems that have arisen in discussions about nudges; (3) clarify practical difficulties that can arise during nudge practice; (4) review the main ethical and political objections that have been raised against nudging; and (5) clarify why issues related to meaning can pose methodological problems for creating effective choice architecture.     

Statistical Significance: Balancing Evidence Against Doubt

The notion of “statistical significance” is often used to quantify “reasonable doubt.” This paper briefly reviews the history of statistical significance. Scientific and legal approaches to the analysis of doubt are compared. Traditional scientific methods for describing error are shown to be comparatively stringent and inflexible. It is suggested that these attributes lead scientists to make firm value-judgments about the quality of their own evidence. Those judgments may be inapplicable in other situations. This process of pre-judging and censoring is surely undesirable when scientific evidence is presented in a wider context.     

IS THE BUDGET DEFICIT “TOO LARGE”?: SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE

The size of the federal budget deficit has alarmed politicians and the general public both. Following recent work, we examine the long-run solvency of the U.S. government by testing for cointegration of federal expenditures and revenues. We include a break term in the cointegrating recession for 1981 to capture a shift in the fiscal process in the first Reagan administration. Tests show the break to be significant; and with the break, in contrast to earlier work, expenditures and revenues are cointegrated with a coefficient of one. Thus, we find the deficit to be stationary and so potentially sustainable.     

Model-based estimation of individual fitness

Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).     

The Family Floor Plan: A Tool for Training,Assessment and Intervention in Family Therapy*

The family therapy field has produced a number of expressive modalities for use in training and therapy. The family floor plan, as a tool for training, teaches systems concepts while involving trainees in an examination of their family-of-origin. In family therapy, the floor plan can be used to assess family interaction patterns and to intervene. The floor plan tool and its applications are described, including short case vignettes.