Remaining childless in affluent economies: a comparison of France, West Germany, Italy and Spain, 1994–2001 Rester sans enfant dans des sociétés d'abondances: une comparaison de la France, l'Allemagne de l'Ouest et l'Espagne, 19994–2001

This article explores why women delay childbearing and increase their likelihood to remain childless in Spain, Italy, West Germany and France. We take a macro–micro perspective and show that national institutions influence women’s life transitions, in particular partnership and motherhood. For coupled women, we find two alternative modes out of childlessness. In countries with high direct and indirect child costs, like Spain and Italy, entering a male-breadwinner couple or occupying a stable and high-income position facilitates motherhood, while in the French context motherhood is most likely in a dual-earner partnership.      

Capture-recapture: before and after EURING 2000

Capture-recapture studies and analyses have become an important tool for the study of bird populations. One reason for the rapid advancement in this area has been the EURING conferences where population biologists and statisticians meet to review recent progress, identify areas that require further work, and work collaborately to solve real world problems. In this paper, we forecast the needs for future research in this area and review the recent conference to try and identify what questions are yet unsolved. This EURING conference was dedicated to Dr George Seber who was the author of a number of key papers and whose name is synonymous with 'The estimation of animal abundance and related parameter' (Seber, 1982). He has retired from working in this field.     

A Dynamic Model of Racial Competition, Racial Inequality, and Interracial Violence

Race relations and stratification literatures offer explicit expectations concerning interracial conflict. Causal arguments derived from these perspectives are examined in this study to explore their ability to explain interracial violence above and beyond criminological perspectives of economic deprivation and racial inequality. The vast majority of previous aggregate-level studies on violence are cross-sectional, ignoring the importance of a dynamic model that incorporates the influence of changing structural conditions in urban areas on interracial violence. We explore theories that incorporate dynamic explanations for the influence of structural factors related to crime as well as racial conflict and employ a methodological approach that models the change in structural conditions for rare events such as interracial homicide. We find that changes between 1980 and 1990 in urban Black and Hispanic population composition, racial competition and racial inequality differentially explain the variation in White and Black interracial homicide offending.     

论文明的发展趋势——生态文明

从属于地球共同体的人类文明走过了原始文明、农业文明,又演绎出今天的现代全球文明。现代文明的缺陷引起地球共同体终结的危机。因此人类文明需要进入新的发展过程,而走向生态文明就是人类和地球共同体的未来,这需要克服实证科学语言所具有的单一性,以东方占优势的类比思维来弥补西方实证科学逻辑思维的不足。无论是东方文明还是西方文明,都有着相互的关联。西方的逻辑、东方的关联和类比,都是走向生态文明的必须。     

Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability

In quantitative uncertainty analysis, it is essential to define rigorously the endpoint or target of the assessment. Two distinctly different approaches using Monte Carlo methods are discussed: (1) the end point is a fixed but unknown value (e.g., the maximally exposed individual, the average individual, or a specific individual) or (2) the end point is an unknown distribution of values (e.g., the variability of exposures among unspecified individuals in the population). In the first case, values are sampled at random from distributions representing various "degrees of belief" about the unknown "fixed" values of the parameters to produce a distribution of model results. The distribution of model results represents a subjective confidence statement about the true but unknown assessment end point. The important input parameters are those that contribute most to the spread in the distribution of the model results. In the second case, Monte Carlo calculations are performed in two dimensions producing numerous alternative representations of the true but unknown distribution. These alternative distributions permit subject confidence statements to be made from two perspectives: (1) for the individual exposure occurring at a specified fractile of the distribution or (2) for the fractile of the distribution associated with a specified level of individual exposure. The relative importance of input parameters will depend on the fractile or exposure level of interest. The quantification of uncertainty for the simulation of a true but unknown distribution of values represents the state-of-the-art in assessment modeling.     

Characteristics of technically progressive firms

Carter and Williams' study of the organizational and managerial characteristics of technically progressive firms remains one of the most frequently cited studies in this field. In this paper we replicate and extend eight of Carter and Williams' findings in a study of innovation in the United States footwear industry. We replicate Carter and Williams' tests but extend their results by conducting the tests in a more rigorous fashion and calculating the independent relationships of each variable with technical progressiveness. Because of the more rigorous methodology we can specify what aspects of their general concepts are related to technical progressiveness. Our results indicate strong relationships between technical progressiveness and (1) the technical expertise of the managerial staff; and (2) the openness of the formal inter-departmental communications structure. Carter and Williams' findings are supported insofar as their general concepts reflect aspects of these variables.     

SEX DISCRIMINATION AND AFFIRMATIVE ACTION IN FACULTY SALARIES

A counterfactual model is used to determine if sex discrimination in salaries existed at Illinois State University. The analysis makes use of detailed peer evaluations of each faculty members's productivity in scholarly productivity, teaching, and service. The model is extended to examine the effects of Affirmative Action salary increments given female faculty members. Evidence of sex discrimination in salaries against female faculty is found. The Affirmative Action salary program erased this discrimination and introduced statistically significant discrimination against male faculty.     

THE CORRELATES OF HEALTHY FAMILY FUNCTIONING: THE ROLE OF CONSENSUS AND CONFLICT IN THE PRACTICE OF FAMILY THERAPY

The present study explores the relative importance of individual, dyadic and triadic measures of intrafamily functioning in predicting family health. Using self-report data from 78 families, it was found that dyadic measures pertaining to marital quality and parent-child relationships were more powerful predictors than either individual measures of emotional maturity, anxiety, self-esteem or locus of control, or triadic measures of the families' hierarchical alignments. The study also found that while mothers' and fathers' assessments of intrafamily functioning were more important than the childrens' (except for the childrens' view of parent-child relationships), the parents differed in that marital quality was more important to the mothers' evaluations of the family unit while parent-child relationships were more important to the fathers'. Compositely, the findings suggest that family health is a complex multidimensional phenomenon, and that change in a particular dimension of family life may not necessarily be greeted with consensual validation or repudiation by all family members.