TESTING FOR EFFICIENCY IN LOTTO MARKETS

State-sponsored lotto games, because they are pari-mutuel and because jackpots with no winner are rolled over into the next drawing, present an excellent opportunity to test for market efficiency. Using data from Massachusetts, Kentucky, and Ohio, we investigate bettors' responses and test for weak-form efficiency. Lotto bets do not have positive net expected returns, thus weak-form efficiency exists. To evaluate strong-form efficiency we utilize the concept of a rational expectations equilibrium. We find that in general lotto bettors' decisions to play generate a level of sales that conform to their original forecasts of expected value.     

RESPONSE LATENCY AS A SIGNAL TO QUESTION PROBLEMS IN SURVEY RESEARCH

This research explores the potential utility of response latencyas an index of question problems in survey research. The timerespondents took to answer three types of bad questions wascompared to the time they took to answer the repaired versionsof the questions. Questions containing a superfluous negativeand double-barreled questions took longer to answer than nearlyidentical questions without these problems. Repaired versionsof questions soliciting frequency estimates, however, took longerto answer than their problematic counter parts. The resultsare discussed in the context of a model of question answering,and their implications for survey methodology are explored.     

THE SUPPLY OF CHILDREN'S TIME TO DISABLED ELDERLY PARENTS

This study develops and tests a model of supply of children's time to disabled elderly parents, using data from the National Long-Term Care Survey. The model, which assumes strategic behavior among relatives, offers predictions about effects of changes in the price of paid personal care, parent's wealth, kid's wage rates, public in-kind subsidies of personal care, and parent's relative bargaining power on care provided by children. Although several statistically significant relationships are obtained, the evidence does not generally indicate that children's provision of care to parents is guided by a strategic bequest motive.     

The Structure and Stability of Political Attitudes: Findings from the 1974-76 Dearborn Panel Study

This article examines the structure and stability of publicopinion between the 1972 and 1976 presidential elections. Thedata consist of a four-wave panel study of 800 residents inDearborn, Michigan; interviews were conducted in the springof 1974, 1975, and 1976 and in the fall of 1976 immediatelyafter the presidential election. The paper focuses on the structureof political attitudes, the stability of attitudes, and theimpact of attitudes on the presidential votes. A central thesisis that public opinion can be disaggregated into two clusters—theDisintegration Cluster and the Alignment Cluster—one ofwhich disrupts and one of which reinforces partisan voting.On the basis of correlations between the seven factors makingup the clusters, we anticipate neither a rapid realignment nora disintegration of the party system, but instability, withelection outcomes affected by attitudinal factors salient toa specific campaign. We find signs of increased crystallizationof political attitudes compared to the 1956–1958–1960national panel. Finally, our voting studies indicate that theDisintegration Cluster had a significant effect on the 1972election, but that issues in general had little impact in 1976,once controls were introduced for party identification and candidateimage.     

Research Note/Note de recherche Public opinion and gay rights

Bien que les attitudes canadiennes envers les droits à L'egalité des homosexuels soient devenues plus libérates, la condamnation morale de L'homosexualité n'a pas changé. Cela reflète des tendances contradictoires dans les démocraties libérates, qui d'un côte enchâssent les droits de L'individu au libre choix et à L'égalité des chances, et de L'autre imposent L'hétérosexisme et les normes traditionnelles basées sur la famille. Quoique le soutien du public pour les droits des homosexuels soit entouré de messages insitutionnels contradictoires, ce qui le rend volatile et fragile, il ouvre cependant la porte à d'importantes réformes.
Although Canadian attitudes toward gay equality rights have shifted toward more liberal positions, moral condemnation of homosexuality remains firm. This reflects contradictory tendencies in liberal democratic systems which on the one hand enshrine rights to individual choice and equal opportunity, and on the other enforce heterosexism and traditional family-based norms. Although public support for gay rights is beset by conflicting institutional messages, and is both volatile and fragile as a result, it does provide an opening for important reforms.     

Asymmetry and Gradient Asymmetry Functions: Density-Based Skewness and Kurtosis

Abstract.  Functional measures of skewness and kurtosis, called asymmetry and gradient asymmetry functions, are described for continuous univariate unimodal distributions. They are defined and interpreted directly in terms of the density function and its derivative. Asymmetry is defined by comparing distances from points of equal density to the mode. Gradient asymmetry is defined, in novel fashion, as asymmetry of an appropriate function of the density derivative. Properties and illustrations of asymmetry and gradient asymmetry functions are presented. Estimation of them is considered and illustrated with an example. Scalar summary skewness and kurtosis measures associated with asymmetry and gradient asymmetry functions are discussed.     

CAPITAL GAINS AND THE RATE OF RETURN ON A STRADIVARIUS

What is the return on a Stradivarius? The return equals the capital gain. The return on specific violin sales averages 2.17 percent. The best Stradivariuses were made in the “Golden Period.” Prices were significantly higher for Golden Period violins than for the other three periods examined. However, the rate of return was not significantly different for the four periods, with an overall return of 2.18 percent. When other factors (insurance, taxation and user benefits) were taken into account the rate of return varied between 4.7 and 1.2 percent.