VELOCITY FUTURES MARKETS: DOES THE FED NEED A STRUCTURAL MODEL?

Previous proposals suggesting monetary policy makers target private-sector forecasts have been shown to be problematic. As policy becomes more effective, private-sector forecasts become less informative. Under perfect stabilization private-sector forecasts provide no useful guidance to monetary policy makers about economic shocks. We illustrate a way around this circularity problem by creating a policy futures market linked to the ratio of the (realization of the) policy goal for next period and the current instrument setting. The implication is that extensive information gathering is unnecessary, weakening the argument that central banks need a structural model to conduct policy. (JEL E52, E44, E42 )     

Asymmetry and Gradient Asymmetry Functions: Density-Based Skewness and Kurtosis

Abstract.  Functional measures of skewness and kurtosis, called asymmetry and gradient asymmetry functions, are described for continuous univariate unimodal distributions. They are defined and interpreted directly in terms of the density function and its derivative. Asymmetry is defined by comparing distances from points of equal density to the mode. Gradient asymmetry is defined, in novel fashion, as asymmetry of an appropriate function of the density derivative. Properties and illustrations of asymmetry and gradient asymmetry functions are presented. Estimation of them is considered and illustrated with an example. Scalar summary skewness and kurtosis measures associated with asymmetry and gradient asymmetry functions are discussed.     

The Influence of Socio-Economic Variables on Family Size in Wentworth County, Ontario, 1871: A Statistical Analysis of Historical Micro-Data

Les techniques de l'analyse régressive transversale sont appliquées aux microdonnées du recensement historique du Canada. On a soutiré systématiquement des documents microfilmés un échantillon de 1100 families "normales" résidant dans le comté de Wentworth, de la province d'Ontario, en 1871. On a tenté de determiner l'influence de l'âge, du lieu de naissance, de la religion, de l'origine ethnique, de l'occupation, de la résidence dans un milieu rural ou urbain, et de toutes les autres variables disponibles sur la grandeur de la famille. On utilisa dans l'analyse regressive sur une vaste échelle des variables d'emprunt ("dummy variables"). Les variables démographiques et celles associées au milieu de résidence s'avérèrent très significatives. On découvrit, cependant, que les influences socio-économiques, en autant qu'elles sont reflétées par la profession, la religion, le lieu de naissance, et l'origine ethnique, exercent une faible influence sur la composition de la famille.
Techniques of cross-section regression analysis are applied to historical census of Canada micro-data. A sample of 1100 "normal" families in Wentworth County, Ontario, was drawn systematically from microfilm records of the 1871 census. An attempt was made to determine the influence on family size of age, birthplace, religion, ethnic origin, occupation, urban and rural residence, and other variables for which the census provided information. Extensive use was made of dummy variables in the regression analysis. "Demographic" and urban-rural factors were found to be highly significant. However, socio-economic influences, as represented by occupation, religion, birthplace, and ethnic origin, were found generally to be weak.     

EXPERIMENTAL TESTS OF RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE

This study employs laboratory experiments to test aspects of Ricardian equivalence. An overlapping generations model forms the basis of the experimental design. Whenever Ricardian equivalence predicts a positive bequest, outcomes close to those predicted occur, after allowance for learning. Observed deviations from Ricardian equilibrium are small, but biased in a Keynesian direction: changes in bequests do not fully offset changes in government debt. The imposition of a binding nonnegativity constraint on bequests produces the predicted neoclassical behavior. The cost to the players of deviations from the theoretical equilibrium is apparently an important determinant of the variability of observed deviations.     

The Cognitive-Behavioural Approach with Depressed Clients

Correspondence to Dr Michael Seott, Liverpool Personal Service Society, 34, Stanley Street, Liverpool L1 6AN Summary The recent cognitive revolution in psychology has meant thatan individual's behaviour is now rarely viewed in simple behaviouristterms as solely a product of rewards and punishments, but isseen as influenced by the individual's own, often idiosyncratic,view of their situation. This new paradigm has enabled the developmentof highly structured and usually brief interventions in manyareas of individual emotional problems. This paper describes Individual and Group Cognitive Therapywith depressed clients and cites two recent outcome studies.The contribution of Cognitive-Behaviour Therapy (CBT) to thisarea of emotional distress is noted with the caveat that itseffectiveness has been more thoroughly studied in this areathan in others.     

Local Authority Intake Teams

Summary Amongst the many developments in social services organisationin the decade since Seebohm, specialist Intake Teams responsiblefor all initial referrals and short term work received by anArea Team, remain a popular form of local organization. Thispaper describes a small national survey of English local authoritiesto collect information on both intake teams and their long termcounterparts, and briefly outlines some of the major findings.The survey produced a broad picture of both the present structureof local authority fieldwork departments, and the personal characteristicsof social workers and their team leaders. The paper goes onto examine the relationship between intake and long term teams,particularly in terms of referral rates, relative caseloadsand the case transfer process; and concludes with an outlineof teams satisfaction with the intake system, and some indicationsof desired future developments.     

ESTIMATING TELEPHONE NONCOVERAGE BIAS WITH A TELEPHONE SURVEY

Nontelephone households are implicitly treated as a static populationin discussions of sampling frame noncoverage. Yet telephoneservice is known to be episodic for many households, who maygain or lose service as their financial situation changes orwhen they move. Thus the population of telephone householdsat any given time includes households that were recently a partof the nontelephone population. These households may be usedto characterize the nature of some noncoverage errors and evento estimate their magnitude. Using a panel constructed withthe 1992-93 Current Population Survey, "transient" telephonehouseholds-those who gained or lost service over the year coveredby the panel-are shown to comprise over half of the panel householdsreporting no telephone service in either the 1992 or 1993 surveys.These households are compared with the total nonphone populationand found to be similar on a variety of key demographic characteristics.Several statewide Virginia telephone surveys are used to comparehouseholds reporting "intermittent" phone service with nontelephonehouseholds surveyed through in-person interviews. Householdsreporting intermittent telephone service were very similar tonontelephone households in terms of health insurance coverageand other variables known to be related to telephone status.     

INEQUALITY AND GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM A NEW STATE-LEVEL PANEL OF INCOME INEQUALITY MEASURES

This paper introduces a new comprehensive panel of annual state-level income inequality measures spanning the postwar period 1945–2004. For many states, the share of income held by the top decile experienced a prolonged period of stability after World War II, followed by a substantial increase in inequality during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper also presents an examination of the long-run relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Our findings indicate that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is positive in nature and driven principally by the concentration of income in the upper end of the income distribution. ( JEL D31, O40)