Beyond control? The mechanics and dynamics of ‘informal’ remittances between Europe and Africa

Abstract Policy making usually assumes that the best way to harness migrant remittances for development is by shifting them into the regulated money transfer sector. However, much research evidence concludes that alternative methods are often cheaper and more reliable, accessible and convenient. In this article, we explore this tension between policy objectives and evidence. Based on a review of remittance mechanisms in seven sub‐Saharan African countries, we question the validity of the distinction between ‘formal’ and ‘informal’ remittances. We conclude that the formalization of remittance systems should not be approached as a regulatory task carried out from the top down, but as a bottom‐up evolutionary and organic process that should be encouraged. We suggest that the current regulatory thrust in this area is likely to be counterproductive, since it risks undermining the many vibrant institutions emerging through the movement of migrants and their money, together with their potential to enhance much needed economic and social development.     

Parametric Estimation for Subordinators and Induced OU Processes

Abstract.  Consider a stationary sequence of random variables with infinitely divisible marginal law, characterized by its Lévy density. We analyse the behaviour of a so-called cumulant M-estimator, in case this Lévy density is characterized by a Euclidean (finite dimensional) parameter. Under mild conditions, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator. The estimator is considered in the situation where the data are increments of a subordinator as well as the situation where the data consist of a discretely sampled Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process induced by the subordinator. We illustrate our results for the Gamma-process and the Inverse-Gaussian OU process. For these processes we also explain how the estimator can be computed numerically.     

TV Violence and Viewer Aggression: A Cumulation of Study Results 1956-1976

Can watching television violence lead to an increased levelof aggression in the viewers of that violence? Using the datacumulation method, the author suggesu that the collective findingsof previous studies indicate that such a relationship does exist.Further, it is argued that the cumulation linking these twovariables should be used as a justification for reducing theamount of violence shown on television     

SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF OBESITY

We explain the recent increases in obesity in the United States with a model involving falling food prices, endogenous social body weight norms, and heterogeneous human metabolism. Calibrating an analytical choice model to American women in the 30- to 60-yr-old age bracket, we compare the predicted weight distributions to National Health and Nutrition Examination survey data spanning (intermittently) the years 1976–2000. The model, the first to describe explicitly complete weight distribution dynamics for this group, predicts average weights and obesity rates with considerable accuracy and captures a significant portion of the recent growth in upper quantile weights. ( JEL D11, I12, Z13)     

Public Opinion and Social Citizenship in Canada*

Un thème important de la documentation sur les restrictions des politiques sociales d'État au Canada porte sur les idées dominantes concernant l'État providence, qui ont considérablement changé. Un aspect de cette dynamique qui a reçu peu d'attention empirique est l'opinion publique sur les politiques de l'État providence. Cet article se penche sur la dynamique et la structure de l'opinion au fil du temps en ce qui a trait aux « droits conventionneis >> des dispositions sociales des services et avantages de l'aide sociale, de même qu'aux « nouveaux droits de citoyenneté sociale >> qui mettent l'accent sur les garanties d'égalité des groupes désavantagés fondées sur des motifs hors classe. Les auteurs arrivent à la conclusion que les attitudes à l'égard de la politique sociale canadienne semblent structurées par des dimensions qui peuvent s'insérer utilement dans un cadre de citoyenneté sociale.
An important theme in the literature on the retrenchment of state social policies in Canada has been that dominant ideas about the welfare state have substantially altered. One aspect of this dynamic that has received little empirical attention is public opinion relevant to welfare state politics. This paper looks at the dynamics and structure of opinion over time concerning "conventional rights" to social provision of welfare services and benefits, as well as "new social citizenship rights" that focus on equality guarantees to disadvantaged groups based on non-class grounds. It finds that Canadian social policy attitudes appear to be structured by dimensions that can be usefully ordered by a social citizenship framework.     

Zero-Bias Locally Adaptive Density Estimators

Strategies for improving fixed non-negative kernel estimators have focused on reducing the bias, either by employing higher-order kernels or by adjusting the bandwidth locally. Intuitively, bandwidths in the tails should be relatively larger in order to reduce wiggles since there is less data available in the tails. We show that in regions where the density function is convex, it is theoretically possible to find local bandwidths such that the pointwise bias is exactly zero. The corresponding pointwise mean squared error converges at the parametric rate of O ( n ⁻¹ ) rather than the slower O ( n ^−4/5). These so-called zero-bias bandwidths are constant and are usually orders of magnitude larger than the optimal locally adaptive bandwidths predicted by asymptotic mean squared error analysis. We describe data-based algorithms for estimating zero-bias bandwidths over intervals where the density is convex. We find that our particular density estimator attains the usual O ( n ^−4/5) rate. However, we demonstrate that the algorithms can provide significant improvement in mean squared error, often clearly visually superior curves, and a new operating point in the usual bias-variance tradeoff.