Forecasting with univariate TAR models

The forecasting stage in the analysis of a univariate threshold-autoregressive model, with exogenous threshold variable, has been developed in this paper via the computation of the so-called predictive distributions. The procedure permits one to forecast simultaneously the response and exogenous variables. An important issue in this work is the treatment of eventual missing observations present in the two time series before obtaining forecasts.     

Historical Sociology and Secularisation: The Political Use of ‘Culturalised Religion’ by the Radical Right in Spain

The critique of the theory of secularisation has favoured the emergence of a series of concepts for the analysis of contemporary socio-religious transformations, such as ‘culturalised religion’. These categories constitute, in turn, an opportunity to rethink the process of secularisation from the perspective of historical sociology. Against this background, this article carries out a theoretical analysis of the ambiguities of secularisation in Spain from which a cultural approach to religion (‘culturalised religion’) emerges and its potential connection to the expansion of the radical right-wing party Vox, which became the third-largest party in Spain's parliament in the 2019 national election. After analyzing this interrelation between ‘culturalised religion’ and the radical right on the basis of statistical sources, discourse analysis and bibliographical sources, the article concludes by stressing the importance of historical sociology for understanding phenomena like ‘culturalised religion’, which take us out of the binomial logic that has marked part of the interpretation of secularisation (revival of religions vs decline of the religious) and introduce us into the multiple interactions between the historical past and sociological reality.     

Sexual Prejudice in Sport Scale: A New Measure

ABSTRACT

This study describes the process of developing and validating the Sexual Prejudice in Sport Scale (SPSS), which is a multidimensional instrument developed to assess attitudes toward lesbians and gay men (LG) in sports. The authors conducted two studies: first, to establish the factor structure of the SPSS on 297 heterosexual athletes; and, second, to test the reliability and validity of the resulting 19-item scale on a sample of 311 heterosexual and 160 LG athletes. Exploratory factor analysis of an initial item pool yielded three factors: open rejection, which assesses the blatant prejudice expressed toward LG people; denial of visibility, which evaluates attitude toward the coming out of LG people; and gendering performance, which corresponds to gender stereotypes about performance/skills of LG people. A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to assess the stability of the SPSS. The authors documented internal consistency, test-retest stability, and convergent/divergent validity. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns

ABSTRACT

We develop a new score-driven model for the joint dynamics of fat-tailed realized covariance matrix observations and daily returns. The score dynamics for the unobserved true covariance matrix are robust to outliers and incidental large observations in both types of data by assuming a matrix-F distribution for the realized covariance measures and a multivariate Student's t distribution for the daily returns. The filter for the unknown covariance matrix has a computationally efficient matrix formulation, which proves beneficial for estimation and simulation purposes. We formulate parameter restrictions for stationarity and positive definiteness. Our simulation study shows that the new model is able to deal with high-dimensional settings (50 or more) and captures unobserved volatility dynamics even if the model is misspecified. We provide an empirical application to daily equity returns and realized covariance matrices up to 30 dimensions. The model statistically and economically outperforms competing multivariate volatility models out-of-sample. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

2009 New England Technical Services Librarians (NETSL) Spring Conference: Working the Cataloging Landscape: Fishing,Mining, and Harvesting

Abstract

Rachel Fleming and Kristin Calvert of Western Carolina University discuss their study of interlibrary loan borrowing requests in the three years surrounding a journal cancellation project. Noting that the impact of such a cancellation on interlibrary loan has not been studied since the 1990s, they examine numerous facets of requests for cancelled and non-cancelled journals, including request per journal, year of article requested, and request history for newly cancelled journals. Though journal cancellations resulted in a 2 percent increase in interlibrary loan requests, this number proved so small that Calvert and Fleming judged that their cancellations caused no undue effects.     

Reports of Conferences,Institutes, and Seminars

Abstract

This column covers several conference sessions from the 14th annual Electronic Resources & Libraries Conference, providing guidance on how to navigate ebook duplication, improving documentation and workflows, implementing OpenAthens, and experiences with Project SILLVR (Streaming Interlibrary Loan Video Resources)and knowledge bases and related tools (KBART) automation. There is also a report from IFLA’s SIG Library Publishing Mid-Term meeting, which was an ideological meeting in nature, discussing community building, resource sharing, and status updates. A report from the 2018 Charleston Conference is also included.     

Optimal Treatment Schedule in Insect Pest Control in Viticulture

A model for the control of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana includes two control methods: insecticides and mating disruption. It yields the combination and schedule of application that minimize cost and losses due to the pest. A simulation is presented for an experimental situation.