The impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on annuity and saving choices

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - We analyze the impact of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion on the competing demands for annuities and bequeathable savings using a lifecycle recursive utility...     

University Students’ Attitudes Toward Same-Sex Parenting and Gay and Lesbian Rights in Portugal

The purpose of this study was to explore university students’ attitudes toward same-sex parenting and toward gay and lesbian rights. A total of 292 participants, aged between 18 and 27 (M = 21) responded to a questionnaire measuring attitudes toward parenting by gay men and lesbians, gay and lesbian rights, and beliefs about the etiology of homosexuality. Results revealed that the majority of students were against gay and lesbian parenting, gay and lesbian equal rights, and believed that homosexuality has a social/environmental basis. It was found that sexual prejudice is highly prevalent in Portuguese university students, and implications of these findings are discussed.     

The Top-Down/Bottom-Up Controversy from a Constructionist Approach. A Method for Measuring Top-Down Effects Applied to a Sample of Older People

Two different theories, called bottom-up and top-down, were developed to understand the determinants of an individual's satisfaction. Experimental studies didn't provide unanimous results, and confirmed, to different extents, both theories. Aside from these classic theories, a constructionist approach was developed. The purposes of this study were to examine the top-down/bottom-up controversy from a constructionist point of view and to obtain a new method for measuring the top-down effects in different satisfaction judgements. In this approach, an individual's satisfaction is viewed as constructions, evoked by the specific question in its particular context, and made by people using cognitive strategies. This view implies that the correlation between satisfaction judgements may reflect the use of the same strategies, rather than a causal effect. From this point of view, the top-down and bottom-up effects, described by the classic theories, cannot be seen as a pattern of causal links among satisfaction domains; therefore we propose a reinterpretation of these concepts in which they refer to ways used by people to construct their satisfaction judgements. On these grounds, we developed a method to extract the weight of top-down effects from correlation coefficients between satisfaction judgements. Two hypotheses concerning the different weight of top-down processes in the different satisfaction judgements were subsequently developed.These propositions were tested using the data set of 'Outdoor Mobility Survey' which was carried out in Italy on a sample of 600 people, 55--95 years of age, stratified by sex and age. We found different top-down effects in satisfaction judgements that confirm our hypothesis, even if some aspects need further investigation.     

Mimetic contagion and speculative bubbles

Conclusion The present essay has focused on specularity as a type of intersubjectivitywithin self-referential systems. We have stressed the self-organizationaldimension of specular processes, which lead to the emergenceof collective objects around which the group structures itself. Rationalbubbles, sunspots, and conventions provided us with examples of thiskind of self-organization within self-referential groups. It seems thatwe have here a theoretical schema that can account for numeroussocial institutions. Such is the case with money, which the overlappinggenerations model shows to belong to the same problematic. We haveobserved that individual and collective representations play an essentialrole in the definition of specular dynamics. In fact, giving thecollectivity a means of interpreting and understanding the natural andsocial environment is a crucial function of these representations. Inspite of its great importance, this cognitive dimension of collectiverepresentations has hardly been explored in previous theorizing. Wehave given priority to a specific form of specularity, namely, mimetism,which is in our view at the very heart of financial processes. Far frombeing the aberration that traditional approaches deem it to be, imita-tion is one of the most important types of rationality in situations ofuncertain and in situations where the agents' outcomes are highlyinterdependent. Our central hypothesis amounts to considering thatthe emergence of speculative bubbles on various kinds of markets canbe explained in terms of mimetic dynamics. Should this hypothesis beconfirmed, it would be possible to account for a phenomenon that isoften observed, namely, the link between bubbles and a decrease inthe diversity of opinion on the market. In our approach, conventionsare taken to be the outcome of a mimetic process. Conventions are thesocial objects created by a unanimous mimetic polarization.     

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals’ perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals’ economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Algebraic exact inference for rater agreement models

In recent years, a method for sampling from conditional distributions for categorical data has been presented by Diaconis and Sturmfels. Their algorithm is based on the algebraic theory of toric ideals which are used to create so called “Markov Bases”. The Diaconis-Sturmfels algorithm leads to a non-asymptotic Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm for exact inference on some classes of models, such as log-linear models. In this paper we apply the Diaconis-Sturmfels algorithm to a set of models arising from the rater agreement problem with special attention to the multi-rater case. The relevant Markov bases are explicitly computed and some results for simplify the computation are presented. An extended example on a real data set shows the wide applicability of this methodology. Partially supported by MIUR Cofin03 (G. Consonni) and by INdAM projectAlgebraic Statistics.     

Control charts for monitoring the median in non-negative asymmetric data

Statistical Methods & Applications - Control charts are commonly used for monitoring the mean of processes. However, there are practical applications in which asymmetric data are the standard....     

Slack-variable models versus Scheffé's mixture models

Slack-variable models are compared against Scheffé's polynomial model for mixture experiments. The notion of model equivalence and the use of various diagnostic measures provide effective tools in making such comparisons, particularly when the experimental region is highly constrained. It is demonstrated that the choice of the best fitting model, through variable selection, depends on which mixture component is selected as a slack variable, and on the size of the fitted model. In addition, the equivalence of two well-known representations of a complete mixture model is shown to be valid. Two numerical examples are presented.