Soccer Scores,Short-Term Mood and Fertility

European Journal of Population - Previous research has shown that seemingly irrelevant events such as unexpected outcomes in sporting events can affect mood and have relevant consequences for...     

Stochastic Evolution of Rules for Playing Finite Normal Form Games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments of stochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal form games that arise. It is shown that many of the “folk results” of evolutionary game theory, typically obtained with a fixed game and fixed strategies, carry over to the present environments. The results are also related to some recent experiments on rules and games.      

A Bootstrap Likelihood Approach to Bayesian Computation

There is an increasing amount of literature focused on Bayesian computational methods to address problems with intractable likelihood. One approach is a set of algorithms known as Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods. One of the problems with these algorithms is that their performance depends on the appropriate choice of summary statistics, distance measure and tolerance level. To circumvent this problem, an alternative method based on the empirical likelihood has been introduced. This method can be easily implemented when a set of constraints, related to the moments of the distribution, is specified. However, the choice of the constraints is sometimes challenging. To overcome this difficulty, we propose an alternative method based on a bootstrap likelihood approach. The method is easy to implement and in some cases is actually faster than the other approaches considered. We illustrate the performance of our algorithm with examples from population genetics, time series and stochastic differential equations. We also test the method on a real dataset.     

International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets

Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1992), Baxter and Crucini (1995), and Stockman and Tesar (1995) find two major discrepancies between standard international business cycle models with complete markets and the data: In the models, cross‐country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true; and cross‐country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper introduces a friction into a standard model that helps resolve these anomalies. The friction is that international loans are imperfectly enforceable; any country can renege on its debts and suffer the consequences for future borrowing. To solve for equilibrium in this economy with endogenous incomplete markets, the methods of Marcet and Marimon (1999) are extended. Incorporating the friction helps resolve the anomalies more than does exogenously restricting the assets that can be traded.     

Concentration function and sensitivity to the prior

Summary In robust bayesian analysis, ranges of quantities of interest (e. g. posterior means) are usually considered when the prior probability measure varies in a class Γ. Such quantities describe the variation of just one aspect of the posterior measure. The concentration function describes changes in the posterior probability measure more globally, detecting differences in probability concentration and providing, simultaneously, bounds on the posterior probability of all measurable subsets. In this paper, we present a novel use of the concentration function, and two concentration indices, to study such posterior changes for a general class Γ, restricting then our attention to some ∈-contamination classes of priors.     

THE POLITICAL COLOR OF FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model that yields testable implications about the fiscal policy run by governments of different political color. Successive generations of voters choose taxation, expenditure, and government debt through repeated elections. Voters are heterogeneous by age and by the intensity of their preferences for public good provision. The political equilibrium switches stochastically between left‐ (pro‐public goods) and right‐leaning (pro‐private consumption) governments. A shift to the left (right) is associated with a fall (increase) in government debt, an increase (fall) in taxation, and an increase (fall) in government expenditures. However, left‐leaning governments engage in more debt accumulation during recessions. These predictions are shown to be consistent with the time‐series evidence for the United States in the postwar period, and also with the evidence for a panel of OECD countries. (JEL: D72, E62, H41, H62, H63)     

The Easterlin Paradox in Italy,or the Paradox in Measuring? Define Happiness Before Investigating It

Social Indicators Research - The Easterlin paradox (Easterlin, in: Paul, Reder (eds) Nations and household in economic growth: essay in honor of Moses Abramovitz, Academic Press, New York, 1974),...     

Circadian Rhythms,Sleep, and Cognitive Skills: Evidence From an Unsleeping Giant

This study analyzes the effects of sleep duration on cognitive skills and depression symptoms of older workers in urban China. Cognitive skills and mental health have been associated with sleep duration and are known to be strongly related to economic behavior and performance. However, causal evidence is lacking, and little is known about sleep deprivation in developing countries. We exploit the relationship between circadian rhythms and bedtime to identify the effects of sleep using sunset time as an instrument. Using the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we show that a later sunset time significantly reduces sleep duration and that sleep duration increases cognitive skills and eases depression symptoms of workers aged 45 years and older. The results are driven by employed individuals living in urban areas, who are more likely to be constrained by rigid work schedules. We find no evidence of significant effects on the self-employed, non-employed, or farmers.     

Shaping the digital transformation of the retail banking industry. Empirical evidence from Italy

Although numerous studies have investigated the determinants of users’ acceptance of online channels, little attention has been paid to the continuous usage of a direct bank. To address this research gap, we analysed data collected via semi-structured interviews and a survey questionnaire distributed in 2017 to a sample of Italian bank customers. Responses were evaluated using a different statistical methodology based on the Shapley Value regression analysis. In brief, user-friendliness and economic advantages appear to be more decisive at an early stage of adoption. Moreover, structural assurance mechanisms (e.g. clarifying security policies and guarantees) have a robust impact on keeping customers online and loyal to electronic channels. Surprisingly, accessibility and compatibility do not seem to be determinant factors.