Fertility of rural China: effects of local family planning and health programs

The rationing of births in China after the 1979 announcement of the one-child family policy has been held responsible for the rapid decrease in Chinese fertility, whereas other observers have noted that parallel fertility declines occurred with voluntary behavior in other East and Southeast Asian countries. This paper assesses the joint contribution of local family planning and health programs, individual characteristics of women, and the development of their communities, as explanatory variables for Chinese fertility in rural areas of three provinces in 1985. Given the explicit quantitative reproductive goals of the government, an ordered Probit model for cumulative fertility is estimated for women age 15–34 and 35–49.The authors appreciate the comments on and corrections of our paper by John Ermisch and the programming assistance of Paul McGuire. The financial support of the Rockefeller Foundation is acknowledged.     

Suicide mortality in Australia, 1970–1991

This paper contains results of a study into changes in rates of suicide in Australia in the 1970s and 1980s. The study found that there was a significant divergence of suicide mortality rates between males and females, with male rates increasing in the last twenty years and female rates showing a general decline. The increase in male rates was highest at ages under 30 and over 80 years of age. The differences in rates between marital status groups have remained large. The study also analysed birthplace differentials in suicides and included some data from overseas countries for comparisons.     

Migration and job satisfaction — A logistic regression analysis of satisfaction of Filipina domestic workers in Hong Kong

A largescale survey of 1209 (5%) Filipina contract workers (domestic servants) in Hong Kong included a five point scale measure of job satisfaction. In order to discover which variables were most related to job satisfaction levels a logistic regression analysis was carried out. Salary, length of residence, the number of relatives in Hong Kong, the provision of a private room and the nationality of the employer were selected by the model as the most important factors. Using the above five variables, the logistic regression model was then used to classify the original sample into dissatisfied and satisfied groups and was successful in 64% of cases.The sample survey was undertaken as part of a Ph.D. dissertation being undertaken for Surrey University by Carolyn French, who is currently an honorary research associate at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Dr. Lam is a statistician in the Faculty of Medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.     

Population Association of China (PAC)

In the past 3 years, the Population Association of China, an independent, academic, and nongovernment organization established in February 1981, organized demographers throughout China to tackle the population problems that emerged in the course of the nation's socioeconomic development. Thus, by organizing and promoting exchanges, the Association did help to push forward the vigorous development of population science. Now PAC has over 500 individuals and organized units as members. It has 90 council members and 19 permanent council members. Its annual tasks and research priorities are discussed and decided by the permanent council, and then implemented in various departments and localities by its council or association members. The Population Association has organized various academic activities among demographers to study the characteristics of different periods. 1983 is an important year for the reform of social and economic systems in China. The new situation and problems brought about by the reform are bound to affect the control of population growth. Consequently, the Association decided to emphasize the control of population growth in rural areas. At the same time, the Association advocated a style of study which required people to delve into the realities of life and to investigate and study these realities thoroughly. For this purpose, 3 discussions were either financed or authorized by the Association in a single year. At the symposiums, demographers and field workers, proceeding from their country's reality and by applying the Marxist point of view, tried to find effective solutions to the demographic problems. As a result, they produced a number of valuable academic reports. In the last few years, PAC played an important role in international academic activities and exchanges. Reviewing the past and looking ahead to the future, PAC will further unite China's demographers to make new contributions to the development of the country's population science and the control of her population growth.     

World population growth and the food supply]

The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.     

Family planning: knowledge, attitude and practice of childbearing women in rural areas]

Knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of family planning techniques, is seen as potentially a very effective means for promoting the fundamental principles, objectives, and practices of family planning. In September 1983, a 2-part survey was conducted in the northeast rural area of Hubei province, China, to learn how much local women knew about birth control techniques, devices, available information, and services, as well as personal attitudes and apprehensions toward family planning. The data, based on the ages and educational backgrounds of the surveyed women, are analyzed. The 2nd part of the survey measured the difference in attitudes between women and men regarding the desired number and sex of offspring. While 99% of the surveyed women supported family planning, many expressed a strong desire to learn more about family planning, particularly as related to government policies.     

The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

Compensating changes in fertility and mortality

This paper illustrates a method of studying changes in vital rate schedules which have no effect on the intrinsic rate of population growth. These changes are described as compensating changes in fertility and mortality. The analysis proceeds from the discrete perspective of Leslie matrices, wherein the central idea is to establish the set of all compensating changes by identifying that class of Leslie matrices which possess the same positive eigenvalue, λ₁. A root-squaring technique is adapted for the purpose of estimating λ₁. Finally, a variety of compensating fertility and mortality changes is illustrated using data from Japan.     

Marital moratorium and fertility control in China

Abstract Since 1949, the issue of marital postponement has been extensively discussed in China. Unlike some other means of fertility control (e.g. abortion and oral contraception), marital postponement has been welcomed with the fewest misgivings. Lately, marital postponement has also been given renewed emphasis by those outside China who see a weak link between various current national family planning programmes based on improved technology and the goal of fertility reduction. One aim of this paper is to render a comprehensive account of the marital postponement programme in China in the course of the birth control campaign during the last two decades. The second objective is to discuss the lessons that may be learned from it, and its implications for the current fertility controversy in the United States. Four general conclusions emerge from a careful analysis of the available documents: (1) in China, proponents of delayed marriage were divided on the question of how to secure its general acceptance. One issue dividing them was whether or not China's Marriage Law of 1950 should be amended in order to achieve it. Those who favoured raising the minimum legal age disagreed on the details of the presumably needed change. There is enough evidence to suggest that medical personnel were the chief advocates of compulsory postponement of marriage. The government rejected this legalistic approach and, in so doing, agreed with Chen Ta (a noted demographer) and others who sought to achieve postponement of marriage through appropriate social and economic measures. (2) Decisions to delay matrimony in different socio-cultural settings are not necessarily identical sociological phenomena. In some societies, (e.g. the United States), they may amount to no more than a course of action that enables individuals involved to realize or develop alternate goals in life. In others (e.g. China), they are literally acts of rebellion. (3) The fertility policy dispute has been carried on in a context of revolutionary change, and involved persons who have committed themselves to transforming the Chinese family. This prior commitment was mainly responsible for the relative lack of controversy about marital postponement as a means of fertility control. (4) Use of contraception is private, hidden from open view. But postponement of marriage is public and may be a source of inter-generational and interpersonal conflict. In China and other parallel situations, a decision to delay marriage is in itself against tradition. In this sense, a full-scale marital moratorium cannot but be more than a partial assault on the hold that the family has over its offspring. This must be unequivocally reflected in discussions of fertility control policy everywhere.     

A mathematical simulation of Chinese population dynamics]

Using mathematical and computer simulation methods, the authors suggest that it is possible to reflect realistically demographic factors such as changes in Chinese birth rates or age ratios and to provide estimates such as the number of children who will enter school in a given year.