我国书籍出版的总体规模及其演进轨迹

我国书籍出版经过60余年的不断发展,品种和总印数已居于世界首位,总定价和销售额也逐年稳步上升。书籍产业已成为国民经济重要的朝阳产业,并推动国民经济的不断发展,同时也为广大人民提高了文化生活水平,为促进我国的精神文明建设作出了巨大的贡献。为更好地促进书籍出版正常有序稳定的发展,对新中国成立以来书籍的总体增长和产品结构变化进行梳理。总结书籍出版发展成绩与不足,有利于书籍产业的健康持续发展。     

Changes in Irregular Emigration: A Field Report from Fuzhou

This paper is based on case studies in Fuzhou, China, with the aim of exploring the changes in Fuzhou’s irregular emigration activities. The findings indicate that due to changing socio‐economic and historical circumstances, a more legalizing tendency of irregular emigration from Fuzhou can be observed. Among these new developments are the following: less risk, along with the use of safer tactics, is now involved in the process of emigration; emigrants are better supported with resources such as financial support, network support and a higher level of education; “legal” status is cherished in the process of emigration, and fewer and fewer emigrants are likely to be victimized by organized smuggling groups; and migratory waves have decelerated and the passion for emigration has become both more rational and more sensible.     

论非法集资概念的逻辑演进及展望

非法集资概念从产生至今,其内涵一直在发生变化。而在这一历史变迁的过程中,非法集资概念逐渐与非法吸收公众存款、集资诈骗等概念相互混淆,产生了严重的逻辑缺陷。反思非法集资概念的演进历程,不难发现非法集资概念在我国现行立法上存在着广义和狭义之分,而学界对狭义非法集资概念的认识还存在偏差。为了引导民间融资健康发展,建议由证券法承担部分集资行为的调整,从证券法视角对非法集资概念的发展进行新的展望。     

环境公共治理政策的效果评价与优化组合研究

本文构建了包含环境治理体系的动态一般均衡模型,基于模型的研究发现,在经济增长方面生产者补贴较为有效;而技术研发补贴在技术进步中的作用十分显著,其通过“研发投入→绿色技术提升→降低污染物排放”的路径可以实现环境质量的改善.此外,本文还模拟了生产者补贴和技术研发补贴的政策组合对社会福利和污染排放的影响,结果显示,政府可以采用生产者价格补贴或技术研发补贴促进产出水平增长进而提高社会福利水平,同时增大生产者价格补贴和技术研发补贴的幅度则能够通过提高技术水平促使污染水平不断下降.最后,本文给出了社会福利增进与环境质量改善双重目标下生产补贴和技术研发补贴政策的可行性区域,进行了环境公共治理政策的优化组合研究.     

基于SOM神经网络的区域复合生态系统健康评估

文章基于SOM神经网络,分析与评估了我国四大经济区域复合生态系统健康等级.空气质量、住房消费和节能降耗对复合生态系统健康评估影响力最大;中国区域复合生态系统主要处在健康和亚健康状态,江苏复合生态系统健康值排名第一,处于健康状态;天津经济子系统和海南自然子系统排名第一,健康值都超过0.8,处在很健康的状态;北京社会子系统健康指数排名第一;东部地区生态系统健康总指数最高,社会、经济和自然健康指数排名都是第一,也都超过0.6,处在健康等级.     

处理缺失数据的分数插补法研究

随着研究中对数据质量要求的提高,缺失数据相关问题也越来越受到重视.文章主要论述了处理缺失数据的方法之一——分数插补法的理论基础,并在此基础上研究了分数热卡插补法及其方差估计,同时使用模拟数据,对分数热卡插补法的实现过程做了模拟研究.通过对比实验,可以得到分数热卡插补法能够在保证原有数据分布的基础上,减少因插补造成的偏差,提供更加准确的插补结果.     

Enabling robust assessment of QTc prolongation in early phase clinical trials

Since the implementation of the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) E14 guideline in 2005, regulators have required a “thorough QTc” (TQT) study for evaluating the effects of investigational drugs on delayed cardiac repolarization as manifested by a prolonged QTc interval. However, TQT studies have increasingly been viewed unfavorably because of their low cost effectiveness. Several researchers have noted that a robust drug concentration‐QTc (conc‐QTc) modeling assessment in early phase development should, in most cases, obviate the need for a subsequent TQT study. In December 2015, ICH released an “E14 Q&As (R3)” document supporting the use of conc‐QTc modeling for regulatory decisions. In this article, we propose a simple improvement of two popular conc‐QTc assessment methods for typical first‐in‐human crossover‐like single ascending dose clinical pharmacology trials. The improvement is achieved, in part, by leveraging routinely encountered (and expected) intrasubject correlation patterns encountered in such trials. A real example involving a single ascending dose and corresponding TQT trial, along with results from a simulation study, illustrate the strong performance of the proposed method. The improved conc‐QTc assessment will further enable highly reliable go/no‐go decisions in early phase clinical development and deliver results that support subsequent TQT study waivers by regulators.     

Interquantile shrinkage in additive models

In this paper, we investigate the commonality of nonparametric component functions among different quantile levels in additive regression models. We propose two fused adaptive group Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator penalties to shrink the difference of functions between neighbouring quantile levels. The proposed methodology is able to simultaneously estimate the nonparametric functions and identify the quantile regions where functions are unvarying, and thus is expected to perform better than standard additive quantile regression when there exists a region of quantile levels on which the functions are unvarying. Under some regularity conditions, the proposed penalised estimators can theoretically achieve the optimal rate of convergence and identify the true varying/unvarying regions consistently. Simulation studies and a real data application show that the proposed methods yield good numerical results.     

论环境犯罪的刑事处罚

文章认为环境犯罪行为作为现代社会一种新型的犯罪行为,其与传统犯罪行为无论是在认识论还是在价值取向上都有着诸多的不同,而正是这些不同决定了环境犯罪的刑事处罚亦须采取不同于传统犯罪的刑事处罚,以适应惩治环境犯罪的要求,从而促进了现代刑罚理论的发展,其主要表现在未遂犯的从重处罚、法人犯罪处罚的多样化,及特殊主体处罚的加重等方面.     

心理健康与大学生全面发展

从大学生心理健康存在的问题及心理健康在大学生全面发展中的意义,说明了大学生心理健康与全面发展的关系,强调了大学生心理健康工作的重要性。并提出如何增进和维护大学生心理健康,促进大学生全面发展。