经济民营化和民营经济金融化:经济结构研究的新视角

民营经济的发展与经济金融化进程相互影响,是当前我国经济结构变迁的典型特征之一.民营经济为国民经济做出了卓越贡献,金融因素在民营经济发展中既有支持作用,也有制约作用."民营部门取得有限金融资源"和"非正规金融安排空前发展",民营经济除需要资金支持外,更迫切需要成熟、有效的金融制度安排.在经济民营化背景下的民营经济金融化将加速改变金融经济与实质经济的对比格局,从而可能威胁基本经济结构的稳健性和可持续性,所以必须慎重对待民间资本全面渗透金融领域的现象.     

Panel Quantile Regressions and the Subjective Well-Being in Urban China: Evidence from RUMiC Data

Using RUMiC data and a simple panel quantile regression method, this paper accounts for the time-invariant individual specific characteristics and investigates the heterogeneous effects of factors on the distribution of subjective well-being (SWB, measured by GHQ-12) in urban China. Comparing results from the pooled regression and fixed effect regression, we find that most results from pooled regressions are likely overestimated. Panel quantile regression results show that income affects the least happy 10 % group twice as much as the happiest 10 % people. Being unemployed brings down the happiness level by 0.97 points on average, but individuals with high SWB seem to be not significantly affected. The complete picture of the relationship between SWB and various factors would have been veiled without using quantile techniques. This paper therefore not only contributes to the happiness literature in China, but also adds evidence to stylized findings going beyond the average.     

The intergenerational education spillovers of pension reform in China

Economic theory establishes that pension privatization weakens the link between old and young and so reduces the incentive to invest in public education in an economy with lower return rate of capital than growth rate of wage. However, empirical studies of the link change are few. In this paper, we investigate the effects of pension privatization and the central government’s subsidy to individual accounts on public education spending in a three-period overlapping generation model. And then, we take contemporary pension reforms in a number of Chinese provinces as offering natural experiment conditions. Using a difference-in-difference framework and 282 municipal districts panel data over years 1998–2009, we test the pension-education theoretical link change. Both our theoretical and empirical results confirm that pension privatization is adversely associated with local public spending on education in China. Private pension subsidies, moreover, magnify this effect. Our study supports the theoretical assertion and selective empirical findings of a negative intergenerational effect of pension privatization.     

中国孩子质量与数量的替代关系现状分析——基于分位数回归方法

文章利用中国健康与营养调查2009年度的相关数据,采用分位数回归方法对我国孩子质量与数量间的替代关系进行分析研究,证实在生育政策与社会经济发展双重效力下的我国家庭孩子数量的减少,同时使孩子的质量得以提高。此外,孩子的性别、父母的学历、家庭所处地理位置、家庭长期福利水平以及家中孩子的性别组成也对孩子的质量有显著影响。     

偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计与预测绩效的影响

本文先运用蒙特卡洛模拟考察了偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计结果的影响并发现,若标准化扰动项偏斜且厚尾,基于对称厚尾分布的极大似然估计量渐近有偏.以上证指数收益为样本,利用SPA检验,实证考察了10种常见的GARCH族结构分别在正态分布、Student-t、GED以及Skew-t分布假设下的波动率预测绩效.结果发现:①Skew-t分布假设下的GARCH族结构能够获得优越的预测绩效;②10种GARCH族结构中,有8种模型在Student-t分布假设下的预测绩效不及正态分布,而GED分布假设下也有4种模型不及正态分布;③样本外观测值的多少以及GARCH-m结构的有无不改变主要结论.     

Performance of control charts for autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic processes

This paper examines the robustness of control schemes to data conditional heteroscedasticity. Overall, the results show that the control schemes which do not account for heteroscedasticity fail in providing reliable information on the status of the process. Consequently, incorrect conclusions will be drawn by applying these procedures in the presence of data conditional heteroscedasticity. Control charts with time-varying control limits are shown to be useful in that context.     

Effects of mediator competence and mediation process on user satisfaction with child custody,finances, and property outcomes

This study draws on survey data from 205 family mediation service users concerning their satisfaction with the outcomes of mediation to address two research questions: (a) how satisfied are service users? and (b) what factors account for users' satisfaction with the outcome of child custody arrangements and the allocation of finances and property? Overall, users' level of satisfaction with outcomes was high. While the mediation process explained a significant variance in satisfaction with the outcomes for child custody and for finances and property, the mediator's perceived professional competence did not predict user satisfaction with the outcomes for either issue. This study contributes to our knowledge on the significance of mediators' process skill, specifically their calm and clear responses to the socioemotional needs of the mediated parties, on the service outcomes for both types of dispute. The implications for mediation training are discussed.     

我国民法基本制度生态化探究

生态文明时代要求法律制度进行不同程度的生态化.在各种法律制度生态化历程中,民法制度的生态化起着相当重要的作用.民法基本制度的生态化是民法生态化的重要内容,它包括人格权制度的生态化、物权制度的生态化、合同制度的生态化、侵权责任制度的生态化.这其中,环境人格权是人格权制度生态化的主要内容;生态性用益物权是物权制度生态化的重要组成部分;环境物权交易合同是合同制度生态化的主要方面.以损害风险预防、现实损害救济赔偿、恢复责任承担为切入点,采用无过错责任与过错加重责任并用的原则,贯彻环境损害全程监管与责任追究的理念,对环境污染与生态破坏的源头与过程实行全面的控制与追责是侵权责任制度生态化的基本要素.     

冷战初期美国的南中国海政策及其影响

冷战初期,尽管美苏两大阵营主要角逐的地区在中东与东欧一带,但美国从来没有把虎视的目光从南中国海移开,早已纳入其海权影响的范畴.美国对中国的遏制战略就不可避免地要与南海问题联系在一起,这是其形成南中国海主权争端的立场、政策的起点和基础.美国对南中国海战略地位的认知,侵扰中国南海疆域的行为,以及对南海诸岛归属问题的“模糊”立场,不能不对南海局势的发展产生深远的影响.