Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

高校教师教育技术培训课程任务驱动教学模式的研究与实践

教育技术培训是提高高校教师教育技术应用能力,进而提高教学质量的极重要的举措,本文主要研究基于网上资源利用的高校教师教育技术培训课程任务驱动教学模式的建构,并探讨了利用该模式结合教育技术培训网站辅助管理、教育技术培训资源辅助教学,从而提高培训绩效的实践.     

对外开放条件下产业安全研究的生态学思路

随着中国加入WTO,对外开放程度不断加大,产业安全问题越来越引起人们的重视。以往的研究多采用经济学和数学方法,从生态学角度对产业安全进行研究在国内外尚未见报道。论题借鉴生态系统健康理论提出了产业生态系统的概念、产业安全的健康指数和敏感性指标;借鉴生态入侵理论提出了产业入侵假说,如多样性阻抗假说、天敌逃避假说、空生态位假说、资源机遇假说、干扰假说、生态位机遇假说。生态学方法为产业安全研究提供了一种新的思路。     

论宋明理学的进步性

对宋明理学的研究,应有一个宏观的视角,即宋明理学是在与社会体制更加个人利益化的斗争中产生、发展和涅槃的.宋明理学的思想家们为了追求正义,捍卫道德的尊严,与专制体制相周旋,写下了壮丽的篇章.     

蒙疆善邻回民女塾始末

本文主要根据中日文史料,叙述1940年1月至1945年8月,日本善邻协会在伪蒙疆政权首府张家口市上堡大境门内创设的回民女塾、该女塾的校务及师生情况、对日本的访问、日本人对该女塾的访问等。并指出,在中国近代回族女性教育史上,该女塾具有一定的独特性,值得中国学者进一步在日本学者研究的基础上进行深入的追索探讨。通过对该女塾的研究也可看出,日寇试图对中国回族女性进行奴化教育,以为其军事占领目的服务的险恶用心。     

安阳方言中的语缀“的“

“的”是安阳方言中使用频率很高的一个语缀。本文在丰富的语言事实的基础上,用方普（方言和普通话）比较的方法对名词、代词后的语缀“的”的状况做了深入细致的描写,认为“的”是安阳方言中重要的成词成分。而疑问代词“啥”和”啥的”的语法异同又为吕叔湘先生关于“什么”的语法论述提供了方言佐证。     

Inferences for a Partially Varying Coefficient Model With Endogenous Regressors

In this article, we propose a new class of semiparametric instrumental variable models with partially varying coefficients, in which the structural function has a partially linear form and the impact of endogenous structural variables can vary over different levels of some exogenous variables. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate both functional and constant coefficients. The consistency and asymptotic normality of these proposed estimators are established. Moreover, a generalized F-test is developed to test whether the functional coefficients are of particular parametric forms with some underlying economic intuitions, and furthermore, the limiting distribution of the proposed generalized F-test statistic under the null hypothesis is established. Finally, we illustrate the finite sample performance of our approach with simulations and two real data examples in economics.     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

Quick,uncertain, and delayed adults: timing,sequencing and duration of youth-adult transitions in Canada

The transition from youth to adulthood in western societies has become more prolonged and complex as traditional societal norms have lost influence. Using retrospective data from a cohort of 43-year-old Canadians surveyed in 2010 (n?=?405), we mapped the timing, sequencing, and duration of ‘first stage’ youth-adult transitions (leaving home, finishing formal education, obtaining a full-time job) and ‘second stage’ youth-adult transitions (marriage, parenthood, home ownership). Latent profile analysis identified five distinct transition profiles – norm-setters, quick adults, uncertain adults, adult students, and delayed adults – with different amounts and timing of post-secondary educational investment playing an important profile-shaping role. Although youth-adult transitions have become less standardized and more individualized, especially for first stage transitions, these transitions are still quite structured and continue to be affected by gender and family socioeconomic status.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE CAMPAIGN FINANCE SYSTEMS: TRANSPARENCY,DONATIONS, AND POLICY CHOICES

We experimentally study the transparency effect of alternative campaign finance systems on donations, election outcomes, policy choices, and welfare. Three alternatives are considered: one where donors' preferences and donations are unobserved by the candidate and public; one where they are observed by the candidate but not the public; and one where they are observed by all. We label them full anonymity (FA), partial anonymity (PA), and no anonymity (NA), respectively. We find that in NA and PA candidates consistently respond to donations by choosing policies favoring the donors. FA, in contrast, is the most successful in limiting the influence of donations on policy choices. Donors benefit greatly from the possibility of donations whereas social welfare may be harmed in some treatments. To our knowledge, this article is the first to investigate the effect of different campaign finance systems distinguished by their transparency level. (JEL D72)