The Social Contagion of Gambling: How Venue Size Contributes to Player Losses

The Social Facilitation Effect shows performance on many simple tasks is enhanced by crowds of onlookers or co-actors (others performing the same activity). Previous experimental research has shown that Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) betting behavior is intensified by the belief that others are gambling along with the subject (Rockloff and Dyer, J Gambl Stud 23(1):1–12, 2007). The present study extends these findings by simulating crowds of differing sizes using a fake video-conference along with a live confederate who gambles concurrently with the subjects. Fifty-four male and 81 female subjects aged 18–82 (M = 46.9, SD = 16.7) played a laptop simulated 3-reel EGM using a $20 stake in 3 conditions: (1) alone, (2) in a simulated group of 5 persons plus 1 live confederate, or (3) in a simulated group of 25 persons plus 1 live confederate. The EGM outcomes were rigged with a fixed 20 trial winning sequence followed by an indefinite losing sequence. As hypothesised, gambling intensity, as measured by trials played, speed of betting and final payouts, was progressively greater with larger crowd sizes (P < .05). In contrast, bet-size was slightly lower with larger crowds. The results suggest that gambling venues with more players tend to increase gambling persistence and contribute to greater long term monetary losses.     

Fear of property crime: examining the effects of victimization, vicarious victimization, and perceived risk

Fear of crime research has primarily focused on fear of crime in general or on fear of specific types of violent crimes. This study builds from this line of research by focusing exclusively on the night fear of six types of property crimes, including fear of burglary while away from home, vehicle theft, bicycle theft, property theft, vandalism, and vehicle burglary. This study examines the effects of victimization, vicarious victimization, and perceived risk on fear of property crime. Survey data from college students reveal that victimization and vicarious victimization were not significant predictors of fear of property crime, whereas perceived risk was a consistent and significant predictor of fear of all property crimes.     

郭店楚简《成之》等篇杂志

《郭店楚墓竹简》自从1998年问世后,一直引起中国内外学者的关注,成为研究先秦文字、历史、思想等领域的热门对象。然由于此批竹简的复杂性,再加上研究时间不长,因而尚有许多基本问题有待解决,而这些问题又是与竹简内容的正确理解息息相关的。如果郭店楚简几篇儒家逸书中的部分问题能够解决,便能够对其思想内涵及历史意义达到更进一步的认识。对《成之》篇作两处简序上的调整及对某些字提出新的读法后,便突显出了其中“恒”、“疾”、“终”的进阶概念,关于圣人对善道之“不拾”观念也可以有更深的理解。另外,对《唐虞之道》作简序调整,对《六德》中“多”字给新的解释,涉及问题虽小,但给先秦思想史研究带来的意义不可低估。     

The myth of the “data‐driven” society: Exploring the interactions of data interfaces,circulations, and abstractions

The prominence of data and data technologies in society, such as algorithms, social media, mobile technology, and artificial intelligence, have heralded numerous claims of the revolutionary potential of these systems. From public policy, to business management, to scientific research, a “data‐driven” society is apparently imminent—or currently happening—where “objective” and asocial data systems are believed to be comprehensively improving human life. Through a review of existing sociological literature, in this article, we critically examine the relationship between data and society and propose a new model for understanding these dynamics. “Using the concept of the informatic,” we argue the relationship between data and society can be understood as representing the interaction of several different social trends around data; that of data interfaces (that connect individuals to digital contexts), data circulation (trends in the movement and storage of data), and data abstraction (data manipulation practices). Data and data technologies are founded to be entwined and embedded in numerous social relationships, and while not all are fair and equitable relationships, there is ample evidence of the deeply social nature of data across many streams of social life. Our three‐part informatic framework allows these complex relationships to be understood in the social dynamic through which they are witnessed and experienced.     

On Causal Inferences for Personalized Medicine: How Hidden Causal Assumptions Led to Erroneous Causal Claims About the D-Value

Abstract

Personalized medicine asks if a new treatment will help a particular patient, rather than if it improves the average response in a population. Without a causal model to distinguish these questions, interpretational mistakes arise. These mistakes are seen in an article by Demidenko that recommends the “D-value,” which is the probability that a randomly chosen person from the new-treatment group has a higher value for the outcome than a randomly chosen person from the control-treatment group. The abstract states “The D-value has a clear interpretation as the proportion of patients who get worse after the treatment” with similar assertions appearing later. We show these statements are incorrect because they require assumptions about the potential outcomes which are neither testable in randomized experiments nor plausible in general. The D-value will not equal the proportion of patients who get worse after treatment if (as expected) those outcomes are correlated. Independence of potential outcomes is unrealistic and eliminates any personalized treatment effects; with dependence, the D-value can even imply treatment is better than control even though most patients are harmed by the treatment. Thus, D-values are misleading for personalized medicine. To prevent misunderstandings, we advise incorporating causal models into basic statistics education.     

The home visit in child protection social work: Emotion as resource and risk for professional judgement and practice

This article conceptualises the role of emotion in social work home visits. It draws on findings from a qualitative study of initial child protection home visits in the United Kingdom. The research used narrative interviews and focus groups to examine how emotions arising from visits were registered in social workers' narratives. These visits were often challenging; social workers needed to manage their own emotions and those of the family, while at the same time investigating concerns and assessing need. This article identifies seven key emotional experiences associated with the home visit from the perspective of the social worker: going into the unknown; being intrusive; being disliked; fear of harm to self; fear of causing or allowing harm; pain, disgust, and distress; and “absorbing” emotion. It is argued that emotion plays a central role in home visiting and that professionals' emotional responses have important implications for the way they make sense of, and manage, home visits. Emotion is therefore conceptualized as both a potential resource and risk for social workers' professional judgement and practice.     

Modeling Two-state Disease Processes with Random Effects

Many chronic medical conditions are manifested by alternating sojourns in symptom-free and symptomatic states. In many cases, in addition to their relapsing and remitting nature, these conditions lead to worsening disease patterns over time and may exhibit seasonal trends. We develop a mixed-effect two-state model for such disease processes in which covariate effects are modeled multiplicatively on transition intensities. The transition intensities, in turn, are functions of three time scales: the semi-Markov scale involving the backward recurrence time for the cyclical component, the Markov scale for the time trend component, and a seasonal time scale. Multiplicative bivariate log-normal random effects are introduced to accommodate heterogeneity in disease activity between subjects and to admit a possible negative correlation between the transition intensities. Maximum likelihood estimation is carried out using Gauss-Hermite integration and a standard Newton-Raphson procedure. Tests of homogeneity are presented based on score statistics. An application of the methodology to data from a multi-center clinical trial of chronic bronchitis is provided for illustrative purposes.     

Between book and cinema: late Victorian new media

The origins of new media can be located in the late 19th century, in the visual archive of this period. This antecedent of today's new media appeared first within the pages of the printed book and article, and its origin is related to the increasingly database style of organization of print media at this time. The organizational form of the visual archive that appeared within such printed pages, however, can also be connected to developments in the moral sciences, in particular, the investigation by physiologists of the material foundations of both vision and of thought. As both the eye and the brain became part of the same physical model, so the visual archive came to include both the database itself, and its organizational frame, within a single image.