Constrained Forecasting: Some Implementation Guidelines

Constrained forecasting has become a popular approach to the complex task of predicting future sales. Mixed performance results have been obtained by companies employing constrained forecasting systems software packages which probably reflects the lack of any clear system implementation guidelines. A number of important operational parameters such as the number of product families, criterion used to define product families, number of system levels, etc. must be specified. This study reports on an investigation of two of these parameters: product group size and appropriate grouping criterion. Different tests are performed with the constrained forecasting system and compared to a traditional forecasting approach using product data from the Cummins Engine Company of Columbus, Indiana.     

Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming Models with Common Inputs

The importance of sensitivity analysis information in linear programming has been stressed in the management science literature for some time. Indeed, Gal [3] has devoted an entire text to just this issue. Linear programs with common inputs (cost coefficients or right-hand-side values) present a problem in that classical sensitivity analysis does not allow for the simultaneous changes required to determine the sensitivity of these models to common inputs. We first survey the approaches previously developed for simultaneous-change sensitivity analysis and cast them in the framework of the special common input case. These general techniques are compared to a simple aggregate variable technique that has not received attention in the literature.     

The Effects of Personality Type on Choices Made in Strategic Decision Situations*

Jung's personality-theory typology is used as a framework for exploring the effects of cognitive style on the type and radicalness of choices made in strategic decision situations. Extending the work of Haley and Stumpf [23], it is proposed that individuals with different personality-type preferences exhibit cognitive styles that are associated with specific biases in the pattern of choices they make. Through participation in an interactive behavioral simulation, 407 participants confronted over one hundred ill-structured decision situations and proposed whatever actions they perceived appropriate. The results support the hypothesized relationships that individuals with different personality-type preferences (i.e., sensing-thinking, intuition-thinking, sensing-feeling, and intuition-feeling) take patterns of actions that reflect specific biases (i.e., selective perception, positivity, social desirability, and reasoning-by-analogy, respectively). The implications of these findings for evaluating the likely effectiveness of strategic decisions and making senior-level staffing decisions are discussed.     

Family structure and income inequality in families with children, 1976 to 2000

Using 24 years of data from the March supplements to the Current Population Survey and detailed categories of family structure, including cohabiting unions, I assess the contribution of changes in family structure to the dramatic rise in family income inequality. Between 1976 and 2000, family structure shifts explain 41% of the increase in inequality, but the influence of family structure change is not uniform within this period or across racial-ethnic groups. In general, the estimated role of family structure change is inversely related to the magnitude of the changes in inequality. Furthermore, by including cohabitation, I find lower levels of total inequality and a weaker role for demographic shifts in family structure for trends in income inequality.     

Reactive, anxious and possessive forms of jealousy and their relation to relationship quality among heterosexuals and homosexuals

The present study examined the relationship between relational quality and three different types of jealousy-reactive, anxious and possessive jealousy. The sample consisted of 76 gay men, 79 lesbians, 70 heterosexual women and 70 heterosexual men. Findings show that different types of jealousy affect relationship quality differently and do so differently for homosexuals and heterosexuals. Among heterosexuals and especially gay men--but not among lesbians--anxious jealousy was negatively related to relationship quality. In contrast, among heterosexuals--but not among gay men or lesbians--reactive jealousy was positively related to relationship quality. The present study shows that distinguishing between different types of jealousy is necessary to entangle the diverse effects of jealousy on the quality of homosexual and heterosexual relationships.     

A midwife program of newborn resuscitation

A very small proportion of newborns fail to establish a normal respiratory pattern without some assistance at birth and newborns requiring resuscitative measures at birth should have a skilled practitioner able to provide it. In this small hospital midwives felt unskilled in newborn resuscitation and paediatricians were not always immediately available. A stakeholder group gathered to discuss the problem. A training program was implemented that improved the skills, confidence and support of the attending midwife to resuscitate the newborn effectively. The aim was to improve the outcome for the infant whilst maintaining the mother's choice of birthing in a small local hospital close to family and friends.     

Acknowledgement to editorial collaborators

Acknowledgments

Acknowledgement to editorial collaborators     

CHANGING MANUFACTURING STRATEGY

This paper demonstrates an approach to successfully managing change of manufacturing strategy. It first introduces the issues and management guidelines, and then describes how one company used this approach to achieve dramatic benefits from changing its manufacturing strategy. A third part of the paper elaborates on how the company made the approach work.