Early-Onset Psychiatric Disorders and Male Socioeconomic Status

We seek to integrate economic, sociological and psychological models by examining whether early-onset psychiatric disorders predict adult male socioeconomic status. Unlike most status attainment studies, we include information on major psychiatric disorders. We use data from the National Comorbidity Survey, the first survey to administer a structured psychiatric interview to a national probability sample in the U.S. Our sample includes men between the ages of 25 and 54. We find that disorders that occur before age 16 reduce educational attainment and the probability of being currently married and increase the probability of having a recent disorder, each of which is a predictor of adult male unemployment. We also find that these early-onset disorders have a direct negative effect on male employment. The estimated magnitudes of these effects are often as large as those of family background variables, suggesting that research on adult male SES should pay greater attention to mental health issues.     

世界新秩序和美国对华新政策

本文论述美国１９９７年后对华新政策。文章综述９０年代起美国历届政府的对华的检讨,到１９９７年克林顿政府采取对华新政策,主要是稳定亚洲、中国大陆、台湾,以确保美国在亚洲战略地位和经济利益     

Effects of Group Practice of the Transcendental Meditation Program on Preventing Violent Crime in Washington,D.C.: Results of the National Demonstration Project,June--July 1993

This paper reports the results of a prospective experiment in which a group of approximately 4,000 participants in the Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programs of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi assembled in Washington, D.C., from June 7 to July 30, 1993. It was hypothesized that levels of violent crime in the District of Columbia would fall substantially during the Demonstration Project, as a result of the group's effect of increasing coherence and reducing stress in the collective consciousness of the District. A 27-member Project Review Board comprising independent scientists and leading citizens approved the research protocol and monitored the research process. Weekly crime data was derived from database records provided by the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (DCMPD), which are used in the FBI Uniform Crime Reports. Statistical analysis considered the effect of weather variables, daylight, historical crime trends and annual patterns in the District of Columbia, as well as trends in neighboring cities. Consistent with previous research, levels of homicides, rapes and assaults (HRA crimes) correlated with average weekly temperature. Robberies approximately followed an annually recurring cycle. Time series analysis of 1993 data, controlling for temperature, showed that HRA crimes dropped significantly during the Demonstration Project, corresponding with increases in the size of the group; the maximum decrease was 23.3% (p < 2 × 10–9) [24.6% using a longer baseline, with 1988--1993 data (p < 3 × 10–5)], coincident with the peak number of participants in the group during the final week of the assembly. When the same period in each of the five previous years was examined, no significant decreases in HRA crimes were found. Robberies did not decrease significantly. However, a model that jointly estimated the effect of the Demonstration Project on both HRA crimes and robberies showed a significant reduction in violent crimes overall of 15.6% (p = 0.0008). Further analysis showed that the effect of the coherence-creating group on reducing HRA crimes could not be accounted for by additional police staffing. The time series analysis for HRA crimes gave results that are highly robust to alternative model specifications, and showed that the effect of the group size was cumulative and persisted after the Demonstration Project ended. Also, calculation of the steady state gain based on the time series model predicted that a permanent group of 4,000 coherence-creating experts in the District would have a long-term effect of reducing HRA crimes by 48%.     

Selective migration and health in the USA, 1984-93

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigated the impact of health on domestic migration within the USA. We find that, for men below 60 years of age, a move from the middle to the bottom of the health distribution reduces mobility by 32-40 per cent. Non-random attrition from the panel implies that these are lower bounds. By contrast, we find evidence that, among older men, there is higher mobility at the top and bottom of the health distribution than there is in the middle. For women, we find no evidence of a relationship between their own health and mobility, although spouse's health does affect the mobility of married women.     

The potential impact of discrimination fears of older gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgender individuals living in small- to moderate-sized cities on long-term health care

As an exploration of the potential impact of fears of discrimination against GLBTs in long-term health care settings, this study compared perceptions of GLBT persons and heterosexuals. A total of 132 GLBT persons and 187 heterosexuals living in Eastern Washington completed a survey that contained demographic questions and perceptions of discrimination in long-term care settings. Most respondents suspected that staff and residents of care facilities discriminate against GLBTs. GLBT respondents who believed that residents of care facilities are victims of discrimination were more likely to believe that they would have to hide their sexual orientation if admitted to a care facility. GLBT respondents were more likely than heterosexual respondents to believe that GLBTs do not have equal access to health care and social services, that GLBTs residents of care facilities are victims of discrimination, that GLBT sensitivity training programs would benefit staff and residents of care facilities, and that GLBT retirement facilities would be a positive development for older GLBTs. This study is offered as a preliminary investigation of concerns about GLBT discrimination in health care settings, how concerns are expressed, and the implications of those concerns for health care needs.     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

A new heteroscedastic regression to analyze mass loss of wood in civil construction in Brazil

A heteroscedastic regression based on the odd log-logistic Marshall–Olkin normal (OLLMON) distribution is defined by extending previous models. Some structural properties of this distribution are presented. The estimation of the parameters is addressed by maximum likelihood. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and some scenarios, various simulations investigate the performance of the heteroscedastic OLLMON regression. We use residual analysis to detect influential observations and to check the model assumptions. The new regression explains the mass loss of different wood species in civil construction in Brazil.     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS: IMPLEMENTATION OF GOAL PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DUAL-PURPOSE FUNDS*

Goal programming (GP) is designed to resolve allocation problems with conflicting goals. Both goals and constraints are incorporated in the allocational decision, and the objective function is stated in a way that, upon solution, yields a result “as close as possible” to the priority-weighted goals. The present paper applies GP methodology to the investment decision of dual-purpose funds (DPFs), that are required by law to pursue allocational decisions with potentially conflicting objectives. It provides an empirical demonstration that DPF managers could have improved their investment selection and subsequent performance by the use of GP methodology. Finally the paper stresses the importance of sensitivity analysis to improve both the goal-ranking and target-selection aspects of the methodology and provides a limited but illuminating empirical demonstration of post-optimality analysis.     

TWO-PIECE VON NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN UTILITY FUNCTIONS*

Thirty empirically assessed utility functions on changes in wealth or return on investment were examined for general features and susceptability to fits by linear, power, and exponential functions. Separate fits were made to below-target data and above-target data. The usual “target” was the no-change point. The majority of below-target functions were risk seeking; the majority of above-target functions were risk averse; and the most common composite shape was convex-concave, or risk seeking in losses and risk averse in gains. The least common composite was concave-concave. Below-target utility was generally steeper than above-target utility with a median below-to-above slope ratio of about 4.8. The power and exponential fits were substantially better than the linear fits. Power functions gave the best fits in the majority of convex below-target and concave above-target cases, and exponential functions gave the best fits in the majority of concave below-target and convex above-target cases. Several implications of these results for decision making under risk are mentioned.     

DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT RATES IN PURE CAPITAL RATIONING

This paper proposes an interpretation of the pure capital rationing problem as it is faced by many managers in decentralized firms in which budgets serve as the principal means of control. It is argued that the appropriate objective for situations such as these is the maximization of either undiscounted earnings over the planning horizon or total value of the investments at the horizon. When either objective function is used in conjunction with the frequently encountered linear programming models for the capital rationing problem, shadow prices result which give rise to discount rates that will reproduce the optimal solution using discounted cash flow as a criterion. These results are then used as a means for clarifying several confusing and misleading statements that have appeared in the literature.