The rise of developing Asia and the new economic order

This paper identifies emerging trends in the world economy during the next decade. The first is that China will overtake the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), ending more than a century of U.S. leadership as the world's largest economy. The second is that Developing Asia, excluding Japan, will overtake the G7, a group of the seven largest industrialized economies established in 1975-76. Finally, India will overtake Japan, Russia will overtake Germany, and Brazil will overtake the U.K., leading to a New World Economic Order: China, the U.S., India, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Brazil.     

Worker Turnover,Capital Dispersion,and Matching

Abstract. A model acknowledging technology and wage dispersion, search frictions, and costly worker turnover is used for testing the notion of random matching. Using a linked employer–employee data set on roughly 9,000 Norwegian establishments and 200,000 jobs during the period 1989–95, I show that establishments investing more in capital, pay more, and experience lower worker turnover rate. Strictly convex turnover costs are identified. High‐wage establishments post on average less intensively than low‐wage establishments. Positive relationships between wages and posting are observed for high‐tech industries and in the capital and surroundings. Thus, the notion of random matching is generally rejected.     

Toward a new paradigm for youth development

Although practitioners and researchers continue to shape the emerging field of youth development, we have still not found a clear and compelling way to talk about our work to family members, the public, and policymakers. The diet-and-exercise analogy presented here compares features essential for good health with comparable features affecting positive youth development. The effects of the inputs or nutrients of a healthy diet are magnified when the individual makes a commitment to exercise. Likewise, the impact of teaching and developmental supports is magnified when young people become actively engaged in their own learning and development.     

The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe

We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.     

Comparison of Contact Site Cancer Potency Across Dose Routes: Case Study with Epichlorohydrin*

Risk assessment for airborne carcinogens is often limited by a lack of inhalation bioassay data. While extrapolation from oral-based cancer potency factors may be possible for some agents, this is not considered feasible for contact site carcinogens. The change in contact sites (oral: g.i. tract; inhalation: respiratory tract) when switching dose routes leads to possible differences in tissue sensitivity as well as chemical delivery. This research evaluates the feasibility to extrapolate across dose routes for a contact site carcinogen through a case study with epichlorohydrin (EPI). EPI cancer potency at contact sites is compared across three bioassays involving different dose routes (gavage, drinking water, inhalation) through the use of dosimetry models to adjust for EPI delivery to contact sites. Results indicate a large disparity (two orders of magnitude) in potency across the three routes of administration when expressed as the externally applied dose. However, when expressed as peak delivered dose, inhalation and oral potency estimates are similar and overall, the three potency estimates are within a factor of seven. The results suggest that contact site response to EPI is more dependent upon the rate than the route of delivery, with peak concentration the best way to extrapolate across dose routes. These results cannot be projected to other carcinogens without further study.     

Work force scheduling with the search decision rule

This paper presents the results of a simulation study of the application of the search decision rule to work force scheduling for a manufacturing firm. The problem is of a mixed structure which includes fixed charge components (hiring and training costs), integer variables (work force size in each period), and interacting variables (work force changes, hiring and training costs, and overtime costs). With these elements present, the search decision rule produced lower total costs than the actual company decisions had over the simulated time period. The technique was found to be (1) flexible, (2) easily understood and implemented, and (3) computationally efficient, requiring only a few seconds of computer time per run.     

Child care services and public policy: a new perspective

A new view of early experience is emerging in the literature. The implications of this new view on public policy for early childhood services and the possible consequence of misinterpreting this new view of early experience are discussed. The paper reviews the present justifications for providing early child care services to families, the origins of these justifications and the limits they impose for providing quality early child care. The author offers a proposal for more appropriate foundation to ensure the maintenance of quality early child care programs for families.