Estimation of stage-specific developmental times and survivorship from stage frequency data

Summary An algorithm for estimating mean stage durations, the standard deviations associated with the means, and stage-specific survivorships from stage frequency data is presented. The algorithm is based on an age-structured, distributed delay simulation model which usesErlang distributions to determine the probability of maturity for individuals in each stage. If the data set extends beyond the first generation, the algorithm requires a fecundity rate, as well as stage frequencies, as input. Goodness-of-fit was measured using a weighted least squares calculation summed over all observed stages and all sampling dates.     

Confidence Sets Based on Thresholding Estimators in High-Dimensional Gaussian Regression Models

We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors k may depend on and diverge with sample size n. In addition to the case of known error variance, we define and study versions of the estimators when the error variance is unknown. In the known-variance case, we provide an exact analysis of the coverage properties of such intervals in finite samples. We show that these intervals are always larger than the standard interval based on the least-squares estimator. Asymptotically, the intervals based on the thresholding estimators are larger even by an order of magnitude when the estimators are tuned to perform consistent variable selection. For the unknown-variance case, we provide nontrivial lower bounds and a small numerical study for the coverage probabilities in finite samples. We also conduct an asymptotic analysis where the results from the known-variance case can be shown to carry over asymptotically if the number of degrees of freedom n ? k tends to infinity fast enough in relation to the thresholding parameter.     

Heteroskedasticity Robust Panel Unit Root Testing Under Variance Breaks in Pooled Regressions

Noting that many economic variables display occasional shifts in their second order moments, we investigate the performance of homogenous panel unit root tests in the presence of permanent volatility shifts. It is shown that in this case the test statistic proposed by Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008 Herwartz, H., Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53(1):137–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is asymptotically standard Gaussian. By means of a simulation study we illustrate the performance of first and second generation panel unit root tests and undertake a more detailed comparison of the test in Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008 Herwartz, H., Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53(1):137–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and its heteroskedasticity consistent Cauchy counterpart introduced in Demetrescu and Hanck (2012a Demetrescu, M., Hanck, C. (2012a). A simple nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root test. Economics Letters 117(2):10–13.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). As an empirical illustration, we reassess evidence on the Fisher hypothesis with data from nine countries over the period 1961Q2–2011Q2. Empirical evidence supports panel stationarity of the real interest rate for the entire subperiod. With regard to the most recent two decades, the test results cast doubts on market integration, since the real interest rate is diagnosed nonstationary.     

Facial reactions in preschoolers: A descriptive study

The facial behavior during a marble rolling game was analyzed for two samples of children between the ages of 2 and 5 years using the Facial Action Coding System (FACS). In addition, for a subsample of children temperament ratings were available. Analysis of coding reliability showed that frequency as well as temporal location coding can be reliably performed for preschoolers. The facial movements show a frequency distribution which is highly similar in both samples. Movements of the mouth, especially the components of smiling, and some movements of the eye region, were observed frequently. Most other facial movements were infrequent events. The more often shown facial movements were stable over a period up to 18 months. In addition, sum-scores of emotion-relevant Action Units were meaningfully related to infant temperament characteristics.     

The village in the mind: Applying Q-methodology to re-constructing constructions of rurality

In recent years rural studies have focused on the analysis of different notions of ‘the rural’ and how they are constructed in expert discourses as well as in everyday life. Dealing empirically with such patterns of meaning, poses special challenges to social science. In this article I want to explore Q-methodology that approaches subjectivity in a particular way. Instead of beginning with the individual – as it is done in case study approaches – or with socio-demographic categories – as surveys usually do – Q-methodology attempts to put the focus of inquiry on the content of subjectivity itself, i.e. the integral views and their internal frame of reference. Q-methodology can be conceived as a hybrid of qualitative and quantitative methodology since it combines mathematical procedures like factor analysis with a genuine constructivist and interpretative approach to ‘reality’. An example of a study in which Q-methodology was applied is presented. The aim of this analysis was to explore the different views of village development and community life that existed in a municipality of the exurban hinterland of Hamburg. As a result of this study three distinct perceptions of rurality are identified: an idyllic, a reform-oriented and an anti-conservationist view. Based on a structured comparison of these three views it is shown how Q-methodology can contribute new perspectives and insights to the debate about social representations of rurality.     

Capitalized investments with entry and exit options and paradoxical tax effects

Investment decisions are often characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility, and timing flexibility. We use a binomial model to investigate the interdependencies of effects from profit taxation and both an option to delay and an option to abandon on investment decisions. We show that increasing the tax rate can lead to paradoxical tax effects, i.e. it may foster an investor’s willingness to invest. By contrast, if we abstract from the abandonment option, such paradoxical effects cannot be identified. Hence, we show that paradoxical tax effects can be caused by an abandonment option. Our results are helpful for investors facing risky investment opportunities and for improving typical valuation approaches.     

The state of the German social insurance state: Reform and resilience

At the core of the German system of welfare provision stand social insurance schemes whose central role contributes to Germany being labelled a social insurance state. In recent decades, Germany has been experiencing major social policy reforms that are often evaluated as paradigm changes. These changes have been reflected in analyses that sometimes even questioned common classifications of the German welfare state. The article sheds light on recent developments that have affected the German system of social insurance. It focuses on four aspects of social insurance: benefits, financing, governance, and coverage. Although confirming many earlier analyses of reforms in detail and sharing assessments of changes such as retrenchment and marketization, the article nevertheless stresses that social insurance remains structurally intact and that the work–welfare nexus underlying welfare provision has been reinterpreted but not surrendered.     

Assessment of dispersal and population structure of Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) in a seaport setting

Seaports are introduction hotspots for invasive alien species (IAS). This is especially true for rodents, which have accompanied humans around the globe since the earliest days of ocean-going voyages. The rapid spread of IAS soon after arrival in a new environment is facilitated by further human-mediated transport or landscape features, like roads. By measuring genetic diversity and structure to investigate dispersal pathways, we gained insight into the transport, spread and establishment stages of a biological invasion, leveraging the most common rodent species (R. norvegicus) in this setting. We characterized the genetic structure of three Norway rat populations along a busy industrial road used by trucks to access the Port area in Paranaguá city (Brazil). A total of 71 rats were genotyped using 11 microsatellite markers. The results revealed a pattern of gene flow contrary to the expected stepping-stone model along the linear transect, with the two furthest apart populations being clustered together. We hypothesize that the observed outcome is explained by natural dispersal along the corridor being lower than human-mediated transport. The sampled area furthest from the port is a gas station frequented by trucks which are considered the most likely mode of transportation. In terms of management strategies, we suggest more emphasis should be put on cargo surveillance to lower the risk of Norway rat dispersal, not only for biosecurity, but also for sanitary reasons, as this port is a major grain trading point.

     

Reference compensation: a transfer of reference price theory to human resource management

The topics of compensation in human resource management and pricing in marketing theory both involve a monetary component that is important for companies to manage. While the role that price perceptions play for consumers is the subject of the well-established reference price theory, human resource management theory lacks any related concept for the compensation perceptions held by employees. This paper transfers reference price theory to HR management in the form of reference compensation, conceptualized as an individual’s compensation norm, including normative and predictive compensation expectations. Possible measures to influence employees’ reference compensation are suggested and avenues for further establishing the concepts in research and practice are developed. As a first empirical attempt to support the relevance of the concept, we present results of an exploratory study among 88 part-time students. We show that employees apply references when judging compensation, and that the applied references vary with different employment situations.     

Jakarta: Environmental problems and sustainability

Jakarta is on the way to become a “world city”, but to classify in this regard, it needs to be more than the size of the metropolis but it should be enlightened management, the kind of services the city offers to ensure a balanced economic, social, political and environmental development; thus, criteria which would indicate its social, economic and environmental “sustainability” and quality of life. The recent years have shown Jakarta's current management to evolve as promoter of centennial projects like the modernization of the center, the establishment of an integrated public transport system, the redevelopment of the waterfront and a new harbor, the conservation of the Old City, and creation of a few gentrified public parks. While these grand projects are still in the making, many infrastructure and environmental problems still continue to prevail, and there is substantial concern about the pro-rich and anti-poor policies which are being pursued, while Jakarta pretends to make the quantum jump to a modern city.