Adaptive Shrinkage in Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are frequently used for forecasting and impulse response analysis. For both applications, shrinkage priors can help improving inference. In this article, we apply the Normal-Gamma shrinkage prior to the VAR with stochastic volatility case and derive its relevant conditional posterior distributions. This framework imposes a set of normally distributed priors on the autoregressive coefficients and the covariance parameters of the VAR along with Gamma priors on a set of local and global prior scaling parameters. In a second step, we modify this prior setup by introducing another layer of shrinkage with scaling parameters that push certain regions of the parameter space to zero. Two simulation exercises show that the proposed framework yields more precise estimates of model parameters and impulse response functions. In addition, a forecasting exercise applied to U.S. data shows that this prior performs well relative to other commonly used specifications in terms of point and density predictions. Finally, performing structural inference suggests that responses to monetary policy shocks appear to be reasonable.     

Curbing the demographic “drifting dune” in long-term care insurance financing: The case of Germany

Long-term care provision and financing are becoming increasingly important matters in all ageing economies. Therefore, a major challenge for policy makers is to strike a balance between adequate care and sustainable financing. In this study, we evaluate the proposal of a so-called sustainability factor in German long-term care insurance. Considering changes in the beneficiary-contributor ratio, it aims for a rule-based consideration of demographic dynamics to alleviate pressure on long-term care financing. Using the framework of generational accounting, we demonstrate that this proposal could have a relieving effect on finances, depending on the share of involvement of current and future generations. It may offer an option for pay-as-you-go long-term care insurance systems worldwide that need to curb the impact of ageing societies. Therefore, this article addresses policy makers tasked with designing a sustainable financing model for long-term care insurance. It demonstrates that the sustainability factor represents a step towards sustainable finances and, thus, it might be one component of a more comprehensive reform package.     

How to Spend Public Money Efficiently: A Cost-Effectiveness Model Illustrated Using the EU’s “Youth”-Program

Since it is crucial for public entities to spend the taxpayer’s money effectively and efficiently, we have analyzed the methods used to check for the two criteria in the European Union’s “Youth”-program. We find that the currently applied method is not theoretically sound and hardly politically justifiable. Therefore, we present a new approach which includes the important aspects that a public organization needs to respect. It is theoretically correct and fulfills economic standards; it is valid in political standards; it is feasible; and it is easily understandable for a large public. We singled out two factors which are readily observable and a good proxy for the decision if a project is worthy to be supported by public funds: the number of people reached and the quality of the program proposed.     

More Participation,Happier Society? A Comparative Study of Civil Society and the Quality of Life

A ‘good society’ has recently been portrayed as one in which citizens engage in voluntary associations to foster democratic processes. Arguably, such a good society is considered as one where people are content with their own lives as well as public life. We consider whether participation in civil society leads to more satisfied individuals on the one hand and a better evaluation of society at a country level on the other. With data from the first round of the European Social Survey, we illustrate that participation in voluntary associations not only depends on individual characteristics, but that there is a clear country-level effect on civil society. This can be explained with measures of quality of society after socio-demographic determinants have been controlled for. Nonetheless, it remains difficult to say what comes first: a ‘good society’ or a thriving civil society.

Self-report to self-control? A note

This note establishes that escalating penalty regimes with the option to self-report crimes may allow present-biased offenders to obligate themselves to refrain from committing future crimes. Self-reporting of a committed crime increases the expected costs of future criminal opportunities, possibly allowing offenders to deter their future selves from seeking immediate gratification.     

Organisationsentwicklung in M&A Prozessen

Technical issues like legal matters or different types of due diligence predominate during the execution of mergers and acquisitions. Personnel issues only get considered during the post-merger integration phase. However, the success of mergers and acquisitions depends considerably on the early and correct involvement of the human resource and organization development (OD) department in every phase of the merger.     

Heteroskedasticity Robust Panel Unit Root Testing Under Variance Breaks in Pooled Regressions

Noting that many economic variables display occasional shifts in their second order moments, we investigate the performance of homogenous panel unit root tests in the presence of permanent volatility shifts. It is shown that in this case the test statistic proposed by Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008 Herwartz, H., Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53(1):137–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) is asymptotically standard Gaussian. By means of a simulation study we illustrate the performance of first and second generation panel unit root tests and undertake a more detailed comparison of the test in Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008 Herwartz, H., Siedenburg, F. (2008). Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 53(1):137–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and its heteroskedasticity consistent Cauchy counterpart introduced in Demetrescu and Hanck (2012a Demetrescu, M., Hanck, C. (2012a). A simple nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root test. Economics Letters 117(2):10–13.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). As an empirical illustration, we reassess evidence on the Fisher hypothesis with data from nine countries over the period 1961Q2–2011Q2. Empirical evidence supports panel stationarity of the real interest rate for the entire subperiod. With regard to the most recent two decades, the test results cast doubts on market integration, since the real interest rate is diagnosed nonstationary.     

The influence of psychopathic traits on the acceptance of white-collar crime: do corporate psychopaths cook the books and misuse the news?

Due to several empirical shortcomings in the research of personality characteristics in ethical decision making, we address in this paper the concept of corporate psychopathy in the organizational context. Corporate psychopaths are individuals successfully working in organizations, but are selfish, manipulative, and exhibit a lack of empathy, remorse, and conscience; therefore, they may be viewed as risk factors for organizations. While there is abundant literature on the connection between clinical psychopathy and criminal behavior, such research is scarce in the business context where successful psychopaths operate. Thus, we examine if the malevolent traits of corporate psychopaths predict the acceptance of different forms of white-collar crime. In doing so, we conduct two survey studies in which we first measure participants’ psychopathic tendencies and then assess their acceptance of either an accounting fraud or an insider-trading situation. Consistent with our hypotheses and across both studies, we find a highly significant relationship between personality traits that are associated with corporate psychopathy and the acceptance of white-collar crime. This paper discusses the implications of these findings and identifies some potentially useful approaches for excluding corporate psychopaths from organizations.     

The village in the mind: Applying Q-methodology to re-constructing constructions of rurality

In recent years rural studies have focused on the analysis of different notions of ‘the rural’ and how they are constructed in expert discourses as well as in everyday life. Dealing empirically with such patterns of meaning, poses special challenges to social science. In this article I want to explore Q-methodology that approaches subjectivity in a particular way. Instead of beginning with the individual – as it is done in case study approaches – or with socio-demographic categories – as surveys usually do – Q-methodology attempts to put the focus of inquiry on the content of subjectivity itself, i.e. the integral views and their internal frame of reference. Q-methodology can be conceived as a hybrid of qualitative and quantitative methodology since it combines mathematical procedures like factor analysis with a genuine constructivist and interpretative approach to ‘reality’. An example of a study in which Q-methodology was applied is presented. The aim of this analysis was to explore the different views of village development and community life that existed in a municipality of the exurban hinterland of Hamburg. As a result of this study three distinct perceptions of rurality are identified: an idyllic, a reform-oriented and an anti-conservationist view. Based on a structured comparison of these three views it is shown how Q-methodology can contribute new perspectives and insights to the debate about social representations of rurality.