Modelling Aggregation on the Large Scale and Regularity on the Small Scale in Spatial Point Pattern Datasets

We consider a dependent thinning of a regular point process with the aim of obtaining aggregation on the large scale and regularity on the small scale in the resulting target point process of retained points. Various parametric models for the underlying processes are suggested and the properties of the target point process are studied. Simulation and inference procedures are discussed when a realization of the target point process is observed, depending on whether the thinned points are observed or not. The paper extends previous work by Dietrich Stoyan on interrupted point processes.     

Testing for residual correlation of any order in the autoregressive process

We are interested in the implications of a linearly autocorrelated driven noise on the asymptotic behavior of the usual least-squares estimator in a stable autoregressive process. We show that the least-squares estimator is not consistent and we suggest a sharp analysis of its almost sure limiting value as well as its asymptotic normality. We also establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality of the estimated serial correlation parameter of the driven noise. Then, we derive a statistical procedure enabling to test for correlation of any order in the residuals of an autoregressive modelling, giving clearly better results than the commonly used portmanteau tests of Ljung–Box and Box–Pierce, and appearing to outperform the Breusch–Godfrey procedure on small-sized samples.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Haemolytic and Uremic Syndrome Linked to O157:H7 and Non‐O157:H7 Shiga‐Toxin Producing Escherichia coli Strains in Raw Milk Soft Cheeses

Shiga‐toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) strains may cause human infections ranging from simple diarrhea to Haemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS). The five main pathogenic serotypes of STEC (MPS‐STEC) identified thus far in Europe are O157:H7, O26:H11, O103:H2, O111:H8, and O145:H28. Because STEC strains can survive or grow during cheese making, particularly in soft cheeses, a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to assess the risk of HUS associated with the five MPS‐STEC in raw milk soft cheeses. A baseline scenario represents a theoretical worst‐case scenario where no intervention was considered throughout the farm‐to‐fork continuum. The risk level assessed with this baseline scenario is the risk‐based level. The impact of seven preharvest scenarios (vaccines, probiotic, milk farm sorting) on the risk‐based level was expressed in terms of risk reduction. Impact of the preharvest intervention ranges from 76% to 98% of risk reduction with highest values predicted with scenarios combining a decrease of the number of cow shedding STEC and of the STEC concentration in feces. The impact of postharvest interventions on the risk‐based level was also tested by applying five microbiological criteria (MC) at the end of ripening. The five MCs differ in terms of sample size, the number of samples that may yield a value larger than the microbiological limit, and the analysis methods. The risk reduction predicted varies from 25% to 96% by applying MCs without preharvest interventions and from 1% to 96% with combination of pre‐ and postharvest interventions.     

Temporary Transnational Youth Migration and its Mobility Links

Going abroad to live, work, or study for a period when young has become increasingly widespread. An important aspect of this development is the longer-term consequences for mobility at the individual and population levels. The present article explores the specific connections – the ‘mobility links’ – between temporary stays abroad and other mobility events in the early life course. The paper is based on a retrospective study of transnational moves and mobility among young adults in Gothenburg, Sweden. The results identify two main forms of consequential mobility: first, ‘secondary’ travel during the stay between two places linked by a move and, second, patterns of regular travel back to the place of temporary stay in following years, mainly because of new social ties formed.     

A multi-user tool for enhancing the daily replanning and control of visits in home care services

The uncertainty associated with patients’ demands and operators’ availabilities is the main complexity factor in planning health care activities. Thus, activity replanning is required to react to the variations and to guarantee a good service quality. A particularly complex replanning activity is required in Home Care (HC) services, where any variation to the plans involves several decisions related, e.g. to nurses’ travels. Such complexity makes impossible for planners to integrate and to effectively handle all of the information in real time with the classical HC management tools. In this work, we design, implement and validate a new visualisation tool to support HC planners in handling the data, to better perform their replanning activities. The tool consists of a desk equipped with an interactive map, where up to four planners can manage the information together in a multilayer configuration. This solution allows to manage the high amount of data in a more effective and natural way than the tabular form of the current commercial tools, due to both the horizontal map visualisation and the multilayer information provisioning. The prototype has been tested with real HC planners and expert users; outcomes show the capability to meet the gap between planners and information complexity, and to provide adequate support for replanning HC activities.     

A Gendered Assessment of Highly Skilled Emigration

Although women form a large and increasing proportion of international migrants, women's mobility has generally been overlooked in the literature. Quantifying and characterizing female migration should lead to a better understanding of the forces that shape international migration. We build an original data set providing gender‐disaggregated indicators of international migration by educational attainment for 195 source countries in 1990 and 2000. We find that women represent an increasing share of the immigration stock in the OECD countries and exhibit higher skilled emigration rates than men.     

Hazard Perception, Risk Perception, and the Need for Decontamination by Residents Exposed to Soil Pollution: The Role of Sustainability and the Limits of Expert Knowledge

This case study examines the hazard and risk perception and the need for decontamination according to people exposed to soil pollution. Using an ecological-symbolic approach (ESA), a multidisciplinary model is developed that draws upon psychological and sociological perspectives on risk perception and includes ecological variables by using data from experts' risk assessments. The results show that hazard perception is best predicted by objective knowledge, subjective knowledge, estimated knowledge of experts, and the assessed risks. However, experts' risk assessments induce an increase in hazard perception only when residents know the urgency of decontamination. Risk perception is best predicted by trust in the risk management. Additionally, need for decontamination relates to hazard perception, risk perception, estimated knowledge of experts, and thoughts about sustainability. In contrast to the knowledge deficit model, objective and subjective knowledge did not significantly relate to risk perception and need for decontamination. The results suggest that residents can make a distinction between hazards in terms of the seriousness of contamination on the one hand, and human health risks on the other hand. Moreover, next to the importance of social determinants of environmental risk perception, this study shows that the output of experts' risk assessments—or the objective risks—can create a hazard awareness rather than an alarming risk consciousness, despite residents' distrust of scientific knowledge.     

Theorizing indicators

Policymakers and social theorists have increasingly come to rely on social indicators to guide their decisions and theories. Social indicators are also useful in bridging theory and empirical research as well as the traditional gap between policymaking and social theory. The concept of social indicators covers interpretation of cultural signs, simple statistical measures, and complex statistical indexes related to sets of domains. The article views the development of child well-being indicators as central not only in the social welfare field, but as an indicator of future societal conditions, given that children’s lives are especially sensitive to social change. The paper addresses the development of indicators of children’s well-being, arguing that the expansion of the field, the complexity of new domains and indicators, and the position of children as “being” and “becoming”, they are citizens of the present as well as being socialized for the future, illustrates that the next crucial step for the field is to further elaborate theories and models.     

The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Sequential Parimutuel Betting with Non-Expected Utility Players

This paper analyzes a model of sequential parimutuel betting described as a two-horse race with a finite number of noise bettors and a finite number of strategic and symmetrically informed bettors. For generic objective probabilities that the favorite wins the race, a unique subgame perfect equilibrium is characterized. Additionally, two explanations for the favorite–longshot bias—according to which favorites win more often than the market's estimate of their winning chances imply—are offered. It is shown that this robust anomalous empirical regularity might be due to the presence of transaction costs and/or to strategic bettors' subjective attitude to probabilities.