Prenatal Health,Educational Attainment,and Intergenerational Inequality: The Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 Study

In this article, we study the effects of prenatal health on educational attainment and on the reproduction of family background inequalities in education. Using Finnish birth cohort data, we analyze several maternal and fetal health variables, many of which have not been featured in the literature on long-term socioeconomic effects of health despite the effects of these variables on birth and short-term health outcomes. We find strong negative effects of mother’s prenatal smoking on educational attainment, which are stronger if the mother smoked heavily but are not significant if she quit during the first trimester. Anemia during pregnancy is also associated with lower levels of attained education. Other indicators of prenatal health (pre-pregnancy obesity, mother’s antenatal depressed mood, hypertension and preeclampsia, early prenatal care visits, premature birth, and small size for gestational age) do not predict educational attainment. Our measures explain little of the educational inequalities by parents’ class or education. However, smoking explains 12%—and all health variables together, 19%—of the lower educational attainment of children born to unmarried mothers. Our findings point to the usefulness of proximate health measures in addition to general ones. They also point to the potentially important role played by early health in intergenerational processes.     

Qualitative Heuristics For Balancing the Pros and Cons

Balancing the pros and cons of two options is undoubtedly a very appealing decision procedure, but one that has received scarce scientific attention so far, either formally or empirically. We describe a formal framework for pros and cons decisions, where the arguments under consideration can be of varying importance, but whose importance cannot be precisely quantified. We then define eight heuristics for balancing these pros and cons, and compare the predictions of these to the choices made by 62 human participants on a selection of 33 situations. The Levelwise Tallying heuristic clearly emerges as a winner in this competition. Further refinements of this heuristic are considered in the discussion, as well as its relation to Take the Best and Cumulative Prospect Theory.     

Updating beliefs with imperfect signals: Experimental evidence

We conduct an experiment on individual choice under risk in which we study belief updating when an agent receives a signal that restricts the number of possible states of the world. Subjects observe a sample drawn from an urn and form initial beliefs about the urn??s composition. We then elicit how beliefs are modified after subjects receive a signal that restricts the set of the possible urns from which the observed sample could have been drawn. We find that this type of signal increases the frequency of correct assessments and that prediction accuracy is higher for lower levels of risk. We also show that prediction accuracy is higher after invalidating signals (i.e. signals that contradict the initial belief). This pattern is explained by the lower level of risk associated with invalidating signals. Finally, we find evidence for a lack of persistence of choices under high risk.     

Turkey: a pilot study of elder mistreatment in a convenience sample

Attitudes towards elder abuse were explored through a survey on International Perspectives on Family Violence and Abuse in a Turkish convenience sample of 25 females and 14 males, ranging in age from 22 to 58. Participants gave examples of behaviors considered in their culture to be extremely abusive, moderately abusive, and mildly abusive from an adult child toward his or her older parent. Responses were coded into four major categories of abuse, each of which had several subcategories: psychological aggression (including the subcategories of verbal aggression, emotional abuse, disrespect, disobedience, power assertion, blame, and imprisonment), neglect (including physical neglect, psychological neglect, abandonment, and putting the older individual into a nursing home), physical aggression (including beating and hitting), and mistreatment related to goods and services (including economic demands, economic withholding, and labor). The most common examples of extreme abuse were neglect, particulary physical neglect, followed by physical abuse. At the moderate and mild levels, various forms of psychological aggression were most commonly mentioned. The only significant gender difference was that men listed more instances of verbal aggression as examples of extreme abuse than women. A positive correlation was found between age and the number of abandonment examples at the extreme level. Results were interpreted from a cultural perspective.     

Scatter Plot and Additional Variables

We often want to complete the interpretation of the usual graphs (x, y) with additional quantitative variables. The Prefmap method (vectorial model) proposes a representation of these additional variables but this representation has some drawbacks when the variables x and y are correlated. To solve this problem, we propose to substitute the coefficients of the linear regression by the coefficient of the PLS regression in the Prefmap method. The graph obtained is made operational thanks to contour lines of quality of representation and it becomes richer than the Prefmap one.     

Joint Modeling of Event Time and Nonignorable Missing Longitudinal Data

Survival studies usually collect on each participant, both duration until some terminal event and repeated measures of a time-dependent covariate. Such a covariate is referred to as an internal time-dependent covariate. Usually, some subjects drop out of the study before occurence of the terminal event of interest. One may then wish to evaluate the relationship between time to dropout and the internal covariate. The Cox model is a standard framework for that purpose. Here, we address this problem in situations where the value of the covariate at dropout is unobserved. We suggest a joint model which combines a first-order Markov model for the longitudinaly measured covariate with a time-dependent Cox model for the dropout process. We consider maximum likelihood estimation in this model and show how estimation can be carried out via the EM-algorithm. We state that the suggested joint model may have applications in the context of longitudinal data with nonignorable dropout. Indeed, it can be viewed as generalizing Diggle and Kenward's model (1994) to situations where dropout may occur at any point in time and may be censored. Hence we apply both models and compare their results on a data set concerning longitudinal measurements among patients in a cancer clinical trial.     

Children's reliance on situational and vocal expression of emotions: Consistent and conflicting cues

The aim of the present study was to investigate developmental differences in reliance on situational versus vocal cues for recognition of emotions. Turkish preschool, second, and fifth grade children participated in the study. Children listened to audiotape recordings of situations between a mother and a child where the emotional cues implied by the context of a vignette and the vocal expression were either consistent or inconsistent. After listening to each vignette, participants were questioned about the content of the incident and were asked to make a judgment about the emotion of the mother referred to in the recording. Angry, happy, and neutral emotions were utilized. Results revealed that 1) recognition of emotions improved with age, and 2) children relied more on the channel depicting either anger or happiness than on the channel depicting neutrality.     

On the equivalence between welfarism and equality of opportunity

A welfarist way of allocating resources consists in 1) equipping individuals with comparable indices of their well-being and 2) applying a unique aggregation rule to individual well-being levels. An equality of opportunity way of allocating resources consists in 1) making the distinction between personal characteristics which are under and beyond individuals control, and 2) decreasing inequalities due to differences in characteristics beyond individuals control. We show that under the proviso that indifferent individuals should not influence social judgements, welfarist and equal opportunity judgements on resource allocation are equivalent.This paper presents research results of the Belgian Program on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Ministers Office, Science Policy Programming. I thank seminar participants at the Institute for Advanced Study and especially Eric Maskin for their comments, Louis Gevers and Yves Sprumont for stimulating discussions, and Walter Bossert, Marc Fleurbaey and two anonymous referees for detailed remarks and suggestions.     

Fair social orderings when agents have unequal production skills

We develop an approach which escapes Arrows impossibility by relying on information about agents indifference curves instead of utilities. In a model where agents have unequal production skills and different preferences, we characterize social ordering functions which rely only on ordinal non-comparable information about individual preferences. These social welfare functions are required to satisfy properties of compensation for inequalities in skills, and equal access to resources for all preferences.We thank participants of the SCW conference in Vancouver (July 1998), of workshops at Cergy and Osnabrück, and of seminars at Tokyo (Hitotsubashi U.) and Caen. We are also grateful to an Associate Editor and two referees for their very helpful comments. Financial Support from European TMR Network FMRX-CT96-0055 is gratefully acknowledged.