Waiting time to exhaust lottery numbers

Questions related to lotteries are usually of interest to the public since people think there is a magic formula which will help them to win lottery draws. This note shows how to compute the expected waiting time to observe specific numbers in a sequence of lottery draws and show that surprising facts are expected to occur.     

Edgeworth Corrections for Realized Volatility

The quality of the asymptotic normality of realized volatility can be poor if sampling does not occur at very high frequencies. In this article we consider an alternative approximation to the finite sample distribution of realized volatility based on Edgeworth expansions. In particular, we show how confidence intervals for integrated volatility can be constructed using these Edgeworth expansions. The Monte Carlo study we conduct shows that the intervals based on the Edgeworth corrections have improved properties relatively to the conventional intervals based on the normal approximation. Contrary to the bootstrap, the Edgeworth approach is an analytical approach that is easily implemented, without requiring any resampling of one's data. A comparison between the bootstrap and the Edgeworth expansion shows that the bootstrap outperforms the Edgeworth corrected intervals. Thus, if we are willing to incur in the additional computational cost involved in computing bootstrap intervals, these are preferred over the Edgeworth intervals. Nevertheless, if we are not willing to incur in this additional cost, our results suggest that Edgeworth corrected intervals should replace the conventional intervals based on the first order normal approximation.     

Geometry in Canonical Correlations

In this article, a useful proposition relating the canonical correlations in multi-way layout to the singular values of a specific matrix is proved and also a geometrical explanation of canonical correlations as an angle between subspaces is given.     

Perspectives on Job Stress in the Serials Information World

Abstract

Adam Chesler describes his experiences and observations of job stress in the serials publishing industry. While stresses, such as the challenges of supervision have always existed, others are new, such as serial publishers scrambling to adapt service and pricing models for providing Internet content. Advice is offered on coping with these stresses.     

Multivariate Kendall's tau for change‐point detection in copulas

Statistical procedures for the detection of a change in the dependence structure of a series of multivariate observations are studied in this work. The test statistics that are proposed are $L_1$ , $L_2$ , and $L_{\infty }$ distances computed from vectors of differences of Kendall's tau; two multivariate extensions of Kendall's measure of association are used. Since the distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis of no change depend on the unknown underlying copula of the vectors, a procedure based on the multiplier central limit theorem is used for the computation of p‐values; the method is shown to be valid both asymptotically and for moderate sample sizes. Alternative versions of the tests that take into account possible breakpoints in the marginal distributions are also investigated. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests are powerful under many scenarios of change‐point. In addition, two estimators of the time of change are proposed and their efficiency is carefully studied. The methodologies are illustrated on simulated series from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 65–82; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

‘Escaping’ managed labour migration: worker exit as precarious migrant agency

ABSTRACT

This article narrows in on the mundane yet extraordinary events surrounding migrant farm workers’ decisions to leave their state-approved employment and to seek a better life in Canada outside of state-managed circulatory labour migration. In so doing, this research contributes to conceptualisations of precarity, and of precarious status in particular, that are beginning to recognise its effects not only on workers’ economic survival, but also the more ordinary daily conditions surrounding workers’ sense belonging and personal autonomy. In their refusal to accept the terms of their contractual circulatory labour migration agreements through what is conceptualised here as an act of ‘escape’, workers claim a space of belonging that contradicts the precarity of their formal citizenship status. In carving out a space in which they may perform autonomy and self-determination in daily life, however, this rejection of contingent citizenship status intensifies the precarious material conditions governing workers’ relationship to the state.     

Formal and Informal Community Care to Older Adults: Comparative Analysis of the United States and Great Britain

Support to frail elders is of international and growing importance. This article compared receipt of assistance with ADL limitations, home health help, any assistance received, and unmet needs in functionally impaired individuals aged 70 years old or older in the United States (n = 1847, 80% women, M _age = 80 years) and Great Britain (n = 1203, 57% women, M _age = 78 years). Informal and formal assistance levels were higher in Great Britain, and rates of unmet need did not differ across ADL domains measured. Receipt of formal and informal care were associated positively, which is consistent with both supplementary and complementary perspectives on the formal-informal care interface. Few individuals in either country received formal services alone. Results suggest that community-based formal support does not substitute for family help. Implications for family and economic policy are discussed.     

Geography of European Life Satisfaction

The vast majority of studies analyze life satisfaction at individual and/or country level. This study contributes with analysis of life satisfaction at the (sub-national) province level across multiple countries. The purpose of this study is to call attention to spatial aspects of life satisfaction. Literature does not discuss the fact that life satisfaction in one province may be related to life satisfaction in other provinces. This study shows that there are well-defined happiness clusters in Europe, but also some outliers.     

Do downward private transfers enhance maternal labor supply? Evidence from around Europe

Using data on 2,317 mother–daughter pairs from 10 European countries, we investigate the impact of downward time and monetary transfers on the career choices of transfer-receiving young mothers. For Europe as a whole, we find a strong positive effect of grandchild care on the labor force participation and the degree of labor market involvement of the young mother, but no impact of monetary transfers on either of these decisions. Both recipients and donors with better endowments are more likely to participate in a monetary transaction, while mothers with lower level of human capital are more likely to provide time transfers to their better endowed daughters.