An analysis of two probabilistic model induction techniques

Two probabilistic model induction techniques, cart and constructor, are compared, via a series of experiments, in terms of their ability to induce models that are both interpretable and predictive. The experiments show that, although both algorithms are able to deliver classifiers with predictive performance close to that of the optimal Bayes rule,constructor is able to generate a probabilistic model that is more easily interpretable than the cart model. On the other hand, cart is a more mature algorithm and is capable of handling many more situations (e.g., real-valued training sets) thanconstructor. A variety of characteristics of both algorithms are compared, and suggestions for future research are made.     

Shared Housing: Making Alternative Lifestyles Work

Changing lifestyles mean that fewer people are living in traditional families and that demands for innovative styles of housing are increasing. Many young people live in shared houses. Such housing offers relatively cheap and flexible accommodation and also has the potential to make a positive contribution to individuals' quality of life. This paper considers the factors that contribute to the success of these households: successful conflict management, the personality and expectations of sharers, the social interaction within the house and its physical design. It concludes with a consideration of ways in which sharing could be encouraged as a housing option.     

The Semantically Reciprocating Robot: Adult Influences on Children's Early Conversational Skills

Two-year-old children's conversational replies were observed in two social contexts: (a) with a partner who consistently responded to each of their utterances by semantically reciprocating and commenting briefly on their topic; or (b) with a partner who also consistently replied to each of their utterances but did not semantically reciprocate their topic. Children were significantly more likely to reply to a partner who maintained their topic. Given that a child replied, the verbal responses in the semantic reciprocation group were also more likely to have a topic-comment structure characteristic of more advanced conversational skills. These experimental data confirm previous correlational evidence suggesting that children are sensitive to semantic reciprocation during the early stages of verbal communicative development, and they support recent arguments suggesting that the adult's use of expansions scaffolds the child's tendency to use predicative, topic-comment replies…and perhaps advances the child's understanding of the adult partner as an attentional/intentional mental agent.     

Alcohol abuse as a rite of passage: the effect of beliefs about alcohol and the college experience on undergraduates' drinking behaviors

Qualitative studies of alcohol's ritual influences indicate that college undergraduates who drink heavily tend to view alcohol use as integral to the student role and feel entitled to drink irresponsibly. Our analyses, based on a standardized measure of these beliefs administered to approximately 300 students, confirmed these findings. Among our sample, beliefs about alcohol and the college experience had an effect on levels of alcohol consumption similar in magnitude to that of other variables commonly associated with a risk for heavy drinking. Moreover, the alcohol beliefs index moderated the effects of three risk factors--gender, high school drinking, and friends' use of alcohol--on respondents' drinking behaviors. These findings are discussed within the context of the anthropological literature on liminality and rites of passage and with regard to strategies for intervention that address the structural roots of the widespread abuse of alcohol on college campuses.     

Developing geriatric social work competencies for field education

Preparing social workers to effectively practice with the growing older population requires the identification of geriatric competencies for the profession. The John A. Hartford Geriatric Social Work Initiative provided the impetus and direction for a national strategy to improve the quality of preparation of geriatric social workers. The Geriatric Social Work Practicum Partnership Program (PPP) is the project with the Hartford Initiative that emphasizes field education. The Geriatric Social Work Education Consortium (GSWEC), one of the PPP programs, initiated the development of competencies for work with older adults. GSWEC utilized Geriatric Social Work White Papers and the pioneering work of the Council on Social Work Education's (CSWE) Strengthening Aging and Gerontology Education for Social Work's (SAGE-SW) comprehensive competency list as well as conducted focus groups locally to delineate key competencies for field education. The Coordinating Center for the PPP, located at the New York Academy of Medicine, led in collaboratively developing knowledge based skill competencies for geriatric social work across all 6 demonstration sites (11 universities). The competencies adopted across sites include skills in the following five major domains: values and ethics; assessment (individuals and families, aging services, programs and policies); practice and interventions (theory and knowledge in practice, individual and family, aging services, programs and practice) interdisciplinary collaboration; and evaluation and research. The identified competencies have proven effective in evaluating students (n = 190) pre- and post PPP field education. The implications for further development of competency driven education for geriatric social work are discussed.     

Adolescents in residential treatment: The prevalence of ACEs,substance use and justice involvement

Abstract

Although associations between developmental trauma, juvenile justice involvement and youth substance use have been previously reported in the published literature, the interconnection among these three factors has not been adequately studied. This article describes the interconnection among these three factors and calls for greater attention to the role of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in the diagnosis and treatment of youth who present with histories of substance use and/or offending behavior. Pilot data are presented that show high rates of self-reported trauma exposure, substance use history, justice involvement, and mental health problems in a sample of adolescents in residential treatment. The data point to the need for residential treatment centers to consider trauma histories in developing treatment plans for youth with current and prior substance use and offending behavior.     

What are the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Among Low‐income Youth in CapeTown?

Research in high‐income countries has identified an array of risk factors for youth antisocial behavior. However, in low‐ and middle‐income countries, despite higher prevalence of offending and antisocial behavior, there is a paucity of prospective, longitudinal evidence examining predictors. South Africa is a middle‐income country with high rates of violence and crime, and a unique social context, characterized by striking income and gender inequality, and increasing number of children orphaned by AIDS. We tested predictors of antisocial behavior at community, family, and individual levels over four years. One thousand and twenty five adolescents from poor, urban South African settlements were assessed in 2005 (50 percent female; M = 13.4 years) and followed up in 2009. The sample analyzed consisted of the 723 youth (71 percent) assessed at both time points. We employed sociodemographic questionnaires and standardized scales. Validity of our antisocial behavior measure was supported by cross‐sectional associations with well‐evidenced concomitants of youth antisocial behavior, including drug taking and truancy. Regression analysis indicated that male gender and experience of community violence, but not poverty or abuse, predicted antisocial behavior. Despite many South African youth experiencing abuse and poverty at the family level, our findings suggest that high levels of violence in communities may be a more important factor contributing to the development of antisocial behavior, particularly among males.     

Nonparametric Engel Curves and Revealed Preference

This paper applies revealed preference theory to the nonparametric statistical analysis of consumer demand. Knowledge of expansion paths is shown to improve the power of nonparametric tests of revealed preference. The tightest bounds on indifference surfaces and welfare measures are derived using an algorithm for which revealed preference conditions are shown to guarantee convergence. Nonparametric Engel curves are used to estimate expansion paths and provide a stochastic structure within which to examine the consistency of household level data and revealed preference theory. An application is made to a long time series of repeated cross–sections from the Family Expenditure Survey for Britain. The consistency of these data with revealed preference theory is examined. For periods of consistency with revealed preference, tight bounds are placed on true cost of living indices.     

Testing for qualitative interaction of multiple sources of informative dropout in longitudinal data

Longitudinal studies suffer from patient dropout. The dropout process may be informative if there exists an association between dropout patterns and the rate of change in the response over time. Multiple patterns are plausible in that different causes of dropout might contribute to different patterns. These multiple patterns can be dichotomized into two groups: quantitative and qualitative interaction. Quantitative interaction indicates that each of the multiple sources is biasing the estimate of the rate of change in the same direction, although with differing magnitudes. Alternatively, qualitative interaction results in the multiple sources biasing the estimate of the rate of change in opposing directions. Qualitative interaction is of special concern, since it is less likely to be detected by conventional methods and can lead to highly misleading slope estimates. We explore a test for qualitative interaction based on simultaneous confidence intervals. The test accommodates the realistic situation where reasons for dropout are not fully understood, or even entirely unknown. It allows for an additional level of clustering among participating subjects. We apply these methods to a study exploring tumor growth rates in mice as well as a longitudinal study exploring rates of change in cognitive functioning for Alzheimer's patients.