Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change

Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed.     

The analysis of early life courses: Complex descriptions of the transition to adulthood

The quantitative analysis of life courses has to deal with a complex pattern of interrelated events and trajectories. Such a complex pattern needs complex measurement tools, even if only to describe the experience of cohorts. This paper addresses the methodological issue of describing the transition to adulthood from a life course perspective, following an event-based definition. New proposals are developed and traditional approaches are discussed, using Italy as an example. A generalization of survivor functions for the analysis of the temporal relationships between two events is introduced and applied. The paper then deals with the problem of describing the process of transition to adulthood as a whole, making use of the sequence analysis approach with special emphasis on the empirical analyses of the ‘standardization vs individualization’ hypotheses.     

Agroenvironmental policies in Slovenia: a multivariate and multicriteria approach

This study was conducted when Slovenia was still harmonising its environmental legislation with the acquis communautaire; a process that today has been fully completed. Moreover, Slovenian state intervention in favour of rural development aims to stimulate both the conservation of natural resources and the growth of the primary sector. In this paper we suggest that these issues could be addressed through the application of multivariate statistics and multicriteria decision methods. By using these methods it would be possible to achieve a better understanding of the importance of territorial structure and socioeconomic characteristics. Our aim is to identify institutional agricultural measures that are able to protect the environment.     

Nonlinear models for ground-level ozone forecasting

One of the main concerns in air pollution is excessive tropospheric ozone concentration. The aim of this work is to develop statistical models giving shortterm forecasts of future ground-level ozone concentrations. Since there are few physical insights about the dynamic relationship between ozone, precursor emissions and/or meteorological factors, a nonparametric and nonlinear approach seems promising in order to specify the forecast models. First, we apply four nonparametric procedures to forecast daily maximum 1-hour and maximum 8-hour averages of ozone concentrations in an urban area. Then, in order to improve the forecast performances, we combine the time series of the forecasts. This idea seems to give encouraging results. This work was supported by a MURST grant. The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

The Collaborations-Relations Between Western (Secular) Law and Religious<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Nomoi</Emphasis> Groups in Today’s Multicultural Context: The Cases of France and Canada

In the last decade, under the pressing processes of immigration and globalisation, many Western constitutional democracies have moved from a number of religions sharing a common culture to today’s age of diversity. What current democracies are facing is the lack of overlapping consensus over basic constitutional “values”. The nature, scope and force of such values are likely to be affected by competing and, sometimes, contested fundamental reasons and worldviews. From here stems the dilemma between “unity” and “diversity”. This essay starts with a broad consideration on the principle of religious freedom, strictly related to the separation as well as collaboration between secular States and Churches; then the author analyses two case-studies (France and Canada), pointing out some specific legal approaches. In particular he focuses the analyses over the French “droit commun” and the Canadian arbitral tribunals that, especially in family law, allow disputes to be arbitrated using religious jurisdictions.     

The power of (extended) monitoring in robust clustering

We complement the work of Cerioli, Riani, Atkinson and Corbellini by discussing monitoring in the context of robust clustering. This implies extending the approach to clustering, and possibly monitoring more than one parameter simultaneously. The cases of trimming and snipping are discussed separately, and special attention is given to recently proposed methods like double clustering, reweighting in robust clustering, and fuzzy regression clustering.     

A model of goal dynamics in technology-based organizations

The purpose of the present work is to build a suitable system dynamics model for goal dynamics in organizations, as proposed by Barlas and Yasarcan (2008). The proposed model does not bear any ambition of being exhaustive: the main objective of this paper is to propose a model of goal dynamics in which Goal Setting, Management by Objectives and Training are viewed as human resource practices able to enhance workers’ goal commitment, and therefore, improve organizational performance. In the first part of this paper, an analysis of the Goal Setting Theory and the role of goal setting practices, in bettering worker's performance, are stressed. In the second part, a case-study, the causal loop and a quantitative model of goal dynamics in organizations are described. In the third part, behaviour reproduction testing, optimization analysis for parameter estimation and scenario analysis are presented. Limitations of the present research and conclusions are finally discussed.     

Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts

This article shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining medium-term forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting systematically improves the accuracy of both point and density forecasts, and tilting the BVAR forecasts based on nowcast means and variances yields slightly greater gains in density accuracy than does just tilting based on the nowcast means. Hence, entropic tilting can offer—more so for persistent variables than not-persistent variables—some benefits for accurately estimating the uncertainty of multi-step forecasts that incorporate nowcast information.     

The Interrelations Between Cohabitation,Marriage and First Birth in Germany and Sweden

We study the interrelationships between union-formation forms and fertility in Swedish and West German female cohorts born in 1949–1971. We apply simultaneous hazard models, permitting the presence of correlated unobserved heterogeneity. This method allows us to control for country-specific composition of the population with respect to several socio-economic variables, as well as with respect to unobserved factors jointly affecting childbearing and union formation behavior. Our results confirm that partnership formation and the transition to parenthood are partially interchangeable. Net of those selection effects, we find that the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation.     

Critical decisions and constitutional rules

Many constitutions specify procedures that allow critical decisions to be made with a different rule than routine decisions. We propose a theory of constitutional rules that explains why. The theory is based on the assumption that the type of a decision can be observed, but not verified. We characterize two classes of second-best constitutions, both with clear analogues in real world constitutions: (i) incentive scheme (IS) constitutions that elicit information about the type of a decision through a costly switching procedure and (ii) veto (VT) constitutions that grant limited veto powers to interested parties.