Decentralization and growth: Do informal institutions and rule of law matter?

We develop a model of the interactions among decentralization, informal institutions and the rule of law. The model sheds light on the ambiguous empirical results reported in the literature regarding the growth effects of the policy of devolving fiscal responsibility to local governments. We find that the distribution of civicness within a country determines the magnitude of the effects of decentralization on its regional convergence, as well as whether decentralization fosters or dampens the country’s national growth. We perform a series of simulated “reforms” using Monte Carlo methods parameterized using OECD countries data set. We then test our findings using a panel data set of 23 OECD countries covering the period 1975–2010. We find that the short and the long run growth effect of decentralization policy depends on the size of the policy reform and can range from extremely negative to positive depending on the rule of law, the level of social capital and its regional dispersion, in line with the model predictions.     

Explaining performing R&D through alliances: Implications for the business model of Italian dedicated biotech firms

In recent years management scholars and practitioners have been interested in Research and Development (R&D) partnering, especially in high-tech industries. While the motivations of research partnership formation have been widely explored in literature, little attempt has been undertaken to examine the effects of research partnerships on R&D productivity and the implications for business models of the new ventures. In this paper we try to shed some light on the business models of the young ventures involved in R&D partnerships and their effect on R&D productivity. Our hypotheses are that experience in previous alliances, repeated partnerships and tight relationships have positive effects on R&D productivity while rigid governance structures and public R&D subsidies have negative effects on such productivity. We discuss how these aspects affect the business models of biotech firms. We test our hypotheses on a sample of 55 Italian DBFs (Dedicated Biotech Firms). Results support our hypotheses. Managerial implications and further issues for future research are discussed.     

Preferences,the Agenda Setter,and the Distribution of Power in the EU

In this paper, we present a generalization of power indices which includes the preferences of the voters. Using a Multilinear Extension perspective (Owen in Manage Sci 18:p64–p72, 1972a) we measure the probability of the players’ voting “yes” for a particular political issue. Further, we randomize the issues and show the influence that the Agenda Setter can have on a player’s power. We demonstrate these results using data from the European Union to show how the power distribution may shift after enlargement and under the new Constitutional Treaty.     

Child Malnutrition and Mortality in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis

In this article, after having identified the main clusters of food-insecure households worldwide, and summarily analyzed their livelihood profiles, we discuss the interaction and relevance of the most relevant key economic and social factors causing child malnutrition and mortality. On the basis of an essential but consistent World Bank database, covering all developing and transition countries, we also carry out a cross-country econometric analysis on relations of income and non-income factors with child malnutrition and mortality. Our main findings are threefold. First, among income factors, each country's overall level of economic development is paramount, but income distribution also plays an important role. Second, taking into account that public provision of basic services tends to increase with economic growth, each country's relative propensity to spend on basic services is significantly and negatively correlated with child malnutrition and mortality. Third, gender-related cultural factors also play a large role.     

Combining Linear and Non-Linear Objectives in Spanning Tree Problems

A classical approach to multicriteria problems asks for the optimization of a suitable linear combination of the objectives. In this work we address such problems when one of the objectives is the linear function, the other is a non-linear one and we seek for a spanning tree of a given graph which optimizes the combination of the two functions. We consider both maximization and minimization problems and present the complexity status of 56 such problems, giving, whenever possible, polynomial solution algorithms.     

A Dynamic Model for Binary Panel Data With Unobserved Heterogeneity Admitting a √n‐Consistent Conditional Estimator

A model for binary panel data is introduced which allows for state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity beyond the effect of available covariates. The model is of quadratic exponential type and its structure closely resembles that of the dynamic logit model. However, it has the advantage of being easily estimable via conditional likelihood with at least two observations (further to an initial observation) and even in the presence of time dummies among the regressors.     

Summer temperature effects on deaths and hospital admissions among the elderly population in two Italian cities

In developed countries the effects of climate on health status are mainly due to temperature. Our analysis is aimed to deepen statistically the relationship between summer climate conditions and daily frequency of health episodes: deaths or hospital admissions. We expect to find a U-shaped relationship between temperature and frequencies of events occurring in summer regarding the elderly population resident in Milano and Brescia. We use as covariates hourly records of temperature recorded at observation sites located in Milano and Brescia. The analysis is performed using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), where the response variable is the daily number of events, which varies as a possibly non-linear function of meteorological variables measured on the same or previous day. We consider separate models for Milano and Brescia and then we compare temperature effects among the two towns and among different age classes. Moreover we consider separate models for all diagnosed events, for those due to respiratory disease and those due to circulatory pathologies. Model selection is a central problem, the basic methods used are the UBRE and GCV criteria but, instead of conditioning all final conclusions on the best model according to the chosen criterion, we investigated the effect of model selection by implementing a bootstrap procedure.     

Tree-structured generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models

We propose a new generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model with tree-structured multiple thresholds for the estimation of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of a binary tree where every terminal node parameterizes a (local) GARCH model for a partition cell of the predictor space. The fitting of such trees is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations: it is very different from the well-known regression tree procedure which is based on residual sums of squares. Our strategy includes the classical GARCH model as a special case and allows us to increase model complexity in a systematic and flexible way. We derive a consistency result and conclude from simulation and real data analysis that the new method has better predictive potential than other approaches.     

Discussion of paper 'explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: a search for commonalities', Population Studies 57(3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr

The contributors to this discussion were invited to submit comments, each from a different standpoint, on the paper by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr that appeared in the preceding issue of the journal. The invitation was issued with the approval of these authors, and the journal is grateful to them for allowing their paper to be used to generate debate on the issues they had raised. The discussion is followed by the authors' response to it.