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51.
In this paper the out-of-sample prediction of Value-at-Risk by means of models accounting for higher moments is studied. We
consider models differing in terms of skewness and kurtosis and, in particular, the GARCHDSK model, which allows for constant
and dynamic skewness and kurtosis. The issue of VaR prediction performance is approached first from a purely statistical viewpoint,
studying the properties concerning correct coverage rates and independence of VaR violations. Then, financial implications
of different VaR models, in terms of market risk capital requirements, as defined by the Basel Accord, are considered. Our
results, based on the analysis of eight international stock indexes, highlight the presence of conditional skewness and kurtosis,
in some case time-varying, and point out that asymmetry plays a significant role in risk management. 相似文献
52.
53.
Manuel Rizzo Francesco Battaglia 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2018,88(16):3081-3097
When a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed in a statistical problem, the result is affected by both variability due to sampling and the stochastic elements of algorithm. Both of these components should be controlled in order to obtain reliable results. In the present work we analyze parametric estimation problems tackled by GAs, and pursue two objectives: the first one is related to a formal variability analysis of final estimates, showing that it can be easily decomposed in the two sources of variability. In the second one we introduce a framework of GA estimation with fixed computational resources, which is a form of statistical and the computational tradeoff question, crucial in recent problems. In this situation the result should be optimal from both the statistical and computational point of view, considering the two sources of variability and the constraints on resources. Simulation studies will be presented for illustrating the proposed method and the statistical and computational tradeoff question. 相似文献
54.
Many white noise and goodness-of-fit tests are (asymptotically) written as quadratic forms in the ordinary autocorrelation estimates. The properties of such tests are studied by investigating the structure of the matrix of the quadratic form. We suggest to choose the matrix of the quadratic form in such a way that the power is maximized according to the information available about the alternative hypothesis. A simulation study sheds some light on the behavior of the test in finite samples. It is generally found more powerful than the most popular portmanteau tests, i.e., the Box and Pierce and the Ljung and Box tests. 相似文献
55.
Francesco Dotto Alessio Farcomeni Luis Angel García-Escudero Agustín Mayo-Iscar 《Statistics and Computing》2018,28(2):477-493
An iteratively reweighted approach for robust clustering is presented in this work. The method is initialized with a very robust clustering partition based on an high trimming level. The initial partition is then refined to reduce the number of wrongly discarded observations and substantially increase efficiency. Simulation studies and real data examples indicate that the final clustering solution has both good properties in terms of robustness and efficiency and naturally adapts to the true underlying contamination level. 相似文献
56.
María del Mar García Rueda Pier Francesco Perri Beatriz Rodríguez Cobo 《AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis》2018,102(3):455-478
To collect sensitive data, survey statisticians have designed many strategies to reduce nonresponse rates and social desirability response bias. In recent years, the item count technique has gained considerable popularity and credibility as an alternative mode of indirect questioning survey, and several variants of this technique have been proposed as new needs and challenges arise. The item sum technique (IST), which was introduced by Chaudhuri and Christofides (Indirect questioning in sample surveys, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2013) and Trappmann et al. (J Surv Stat Methodol 2:58–77, 2014), is one such variant, used to estimate the mean of a sensitive quantitative variable. In this approach, sampled units are asked to respond to a two-list of items containing a sensitive question related to the study variable and various innocuous, nonsensitive, questions. To the best of our knowledge, very few theoretical and applied papers have addressed the IST. In this article, therefore, we present certain methodological advances as a contribution to appraising the use of the IST in real-world surveys. In particular, we employ a generic sampling design to examine the problem of how to improve the estimates of the sensitive mean when auxiliary information on the population under study is available and is used at the design and estimation stages. A Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator and a calibration-type estimator are proposed and their efficiency is evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study. Using simulation experiments, we show that estimates obtained by the IST are nearly equivalent to those obtained using “true data” and that in general they outperform the estimates provided by a competitive randomized response method. Moreover, variance estimation may be considered satisfactory. These results open up new perspectives for academics, researchers and survey practitioners and could justify the use of the IST as a valid alternative to traditional direct questioning survey modes. 相似文献
57.
Francesco Giordano Cira Perna Cosimo D. Vitale 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2012,21(3):355-361
We discuss the paper by Battaglia and Protopapas concerning the analysis of global warming phenomenon in the Alpine Region. The Authors consider a nonlinear model which takes into account regimes in time and levels. In this contribution some of the statistical results presented in the paper are commented and a different approach to the problem is proposed. It is based on a temporal aggregation analysis and it can help to highlight some features in the data. 相似文献
58.
59.
This paper provides a review of fertility research in advanced societies, societies in which birth control is the default option. The central aim is to provide a comprehensive review that summarizes how contemporary research has explained ongoing and expected fertility changes across time and space (i.e., cross- and within-country heterogeneity). A secondary aim is to provide an analytical synthesis of the core determinants of fertility, grouping them within the analytical level in which they operate. Determinants are positioned at the individual and/or couple level (micro-level), social relationships and social networks (meso-level); and, by cultural and institutional settings (macro-level). The focus is both on the quantum and on the tempo of fertility, with a particular focus on the postponement of childbearing. The review incorporates both theoretical and empirical contributions, with attention placed on empirically tested research and whether results support or falsify existing theoretical expectations. Attention is also devoted to causality and endogeneity issues. The paper concludes with an outline of the current challenges and opportunities for future research. 相似文献
60.
Francesco De Sinopoli Leo Ferraris Giovanna Iannantuoni 《Social Choice and Welfare》2013,40(3):715-737
We present a model where a society elects candidates belonging to two parties to a national parliament. The electoral rule determines the seats distribution between the two parties. The policy outcome is a function of the number of seats the two parties win in the election. We analyze two electoral rules, multidistrict majority and single district proportional. We prove that under both systems there is a unique pure strategy perfect equilibrium outcome. We compare the outcomes under the two systems. 相似文献