Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

POPULATION AGEING AND THE PUBLIC PURSE: AUSTRALIA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

A comparative analysis of three decades of OECD public spending change is used to test propositions concerning the likely consequences of population ageing for public expenditure development in coming years. The World Bank and the OECD Secretariat suggest that population ageing has a direct impact on public expenditure through increased spending on pensions, health care and services for the elderly; and an indirect impact through increasing levels of public indebtedness. The analysis here suggests that only the pensions effect is supported by available comparative evidence and that, even here, the relationship is weaker than often implied in the population ageing literature. The vulnerability of different nations to problems arising from population ageing varies widely, with Australia among the least vulnerable.     

A Study of Clinical Change in Individual Career Counseling

This study examined the clinical significance of career counseling effects. Participants were 111 university students (83% women) who participated in individual career counseling sessions at their university. All participants completed the French version of the Outcome Questionnaire–30.2 (OQ‐30.2; Lambert, Finch, Okiishi, & Burlingame, 2005) immediately before the 1st session (pretest) and at the beginning of the last session (posttest). The OQ‐30.2 assesses 3 client life domains: subjective discomfort, problems in interpersonal relationships, and problems in social role satisfaction. Using Jacobson and Truax’s (1991) statistical approach to assessing clinical change, the authors compared clients’ pretest OQ‐30.2 scores with their posttest scores. Among clients with a “dysfunctional” score (n = 59) at the study’s inception, 34% recovered and 14% improved, whereas 41% of clients with functional scores (n = 52) at the study’s inception improved. The results suggest that individual career counseling can make a difference in the lives of many clients; they also highlight the importance of further outcome research that accounts for possible variability in clients’ responses to career counseling.     

Producing mobility: visual narratives of the rural migrant worker in Chinese television

This paper employs literatures of mobility to explore the ways which rural migrant workers in China are represented publicly via television drama. Through an analysis of the popular serial Mingong, the paper examines the underlying politics of contemporary migration in China through three themes: the territorialisation of rural and urban spaces; the embodiment of boundaries via corporeal practices and subjectivities; and the politicisation of rural migrant desires. This analysis demonstrates the significance of television in crafting discursive understandings of mobility and migrants that are suffused with contemporary governmentalities of generating but also managing and excluding migration.     

Benevolence-dominant,authoritarianism-dominant,and classical paternalistic leadership: Testing their relationships with subordinate performance

We propose a new typology of paternalistic leadership styles based on how leaders demonstrate authoritarianism and benevolence, the two essential components of this type of leadership. Benevolence-dominant paternalistic leadership refers to leaders' sole dependence on the use of benevolence without their strong assertion of authority, whereas authoritarianism-dominant paternalistic leadership is based mainly on authoritarianism itself; classical paternalistic leadership, which best fits early observations of paternalistic leaders, refers to the salient combination of both leadership components. We used two distinct samples and methods to test this typology and the association with subordinate performance. Across the two studies, a field investigation with Taiwanese military supervisor-subordinate dyads and a hypothetical scenario experiment with U.S. working adults, we found a positive relationship between classical paternalistic leadership and subordinate performance as strong as that between benevolence-dominant paternalistic leadership and performance. Our findings echo the phenomenon that paternalistic leaders tend to combine benevolence with authoritarianism to affect subordinate performance.