Crisis communication plans: Poor predictors of excellent crisis public relations

Public relations is an important element in almost all successful crisis mana ment efforts. Newly developed theory in crisis public relations, though, suggests a shift is necessary in the way practitioners view crises. The well-accepted tactics and techniques advocated by practitioners need to be replaced with strategies and beliefs from a new perspective—a perspective or paradigm that defines excellent crisis public relations practice very differently from the literature of the past 20 years.     

Social work field education: believing in supervisors who are living with disabilities

Much of what is written by non-disabled authors about living with disabilities does not mirror people’s experiences or opportunities. Literature is often written about people’s abilities (or disabilities) rather than by or with people. Discourse about supervision of social work students can risk assuming that supervisors are people who do not identify as living with disabilities. This research is a co-operative inquiry into the experience of being an Australian social work student supervisor who is living with disabilities. The article extends the literature about being a social work field educator to include ability, and values the practice wisdom of experienced social workers including a current student supervisor who is living with a disability.     

Small sample properties of asymptotically equivalent tests for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

Models that allow for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) in the error process have recently found widespread application. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate, through Monte Carlo analysis, the small sample properties of an exact Lagrange multiplier test for the presence of ARCH, and to compare the power of this test with that of an asymptotically equivalent TR² version. The comparison involves first-and higher-order variants of these processes. The results indicate substantial power differentials in favor of the exact LM test, by up to 15% for sample sizes smaller than 100.     

The Person Behind The Word: Mead's Theory Of Universals And A Shift Of Focus In Symbolic Interactionism

Careful consideration of Mead's theory of universals proves to be a corrective to a number of tendencies evident in the work of at least some influential contemporary symbolic interactionists. Mead avoids any realistic hypostatization of separate universals (“meanings,” “forms,” or “essences” while at the same time eschewing nominalistic and conventionalistic views of language. His principle of the objective reality of perspectives (1932:161-175) allows him to grant objective reality to universal characteristics of concrete objects, but entails neither hypostatization nor idealization of the universal. In addition to contravening nominalism and conventionalism, Mead's theory of universals provides a perspective from which the reality of the self, and the importance of intentional action for the development of a firmly felt sense of self and autonomy, can both be affirmed. Far from being an illusion or mer.e symbolic construct, the self is seen to be an objectively real universal within the perspective of social action.     

Separation of hunting and natural mortality using ring-return models: an overview

Ring-recovery methodology has been widely used to estimate survival rates in multi-year ringing studies of wildlife and fish populations (Youngs & Robson, 1975; Brownie et al. , 1985). The Brownie et al. (1985) methodology is often used but its formulation does not account for the fact that rings may be returned in two ways. Sometimes hunters are solicited by a wildlife management officer or scientist and asked if they shot any ringed birds. Alternatively, a hunter may voluntarily report the ring to the Bird Banding Laboratory (US Fish and Wildlife Service, Laurel, MD, USA) as is requested on the ring. Because the Brownie et al. (1985) models only consider reported rings, Conroy (1985) and Conroy et al. (1989) generalized their models to permit solicited rings. Pollock et al. (1991) considered a very similar model for fish tagging models which might be combined with angler surveys. Pollock et al. (1994) showed how to apply their generalized formulation, with some modification to allow for crippling losses, to wildlife ringing studies. Provided an estimate of ring reporting rate is available, separation of hunting and natural mortality estimates is possible which provides important management information. Here we review this material and then discuss possible methods of estimating reporting rate which include: (1) reward ring studies; (2) use of planted rings; (3) hunter surveys; and (4) pre- and post-hunting season ringings. We compare and contrast the four methods in terms of their model assumptions and practicality. We also discuss the estimation of crippling loss using pre- and post-season ringing in combination with a reward ringing study to estimate reporting rate.     

Planning Replacement of Natural Gas Distribution Systems Under Constraints on Acceptable Risk from Explosions

Natural gas distribution systems in the United States were developed primarily in the first half of this century, utilizing materials such as cast iron and then steel. Over time, cast iron and steel pipe sections became weak from corrosion and are subject to failure which in turn can lead to explosions and possible injury and loss of life. Gas utilities maintain system integrity through repair-replacement programs where pipe sections are prioritized for replacement in any given year through cost-benefit analysis; however, the total annual amount to be budgeted for replacement is left to engineering judgment. This approach has left some utilities vulnerable to criticism that their current replacement rate on cast iron pipe is not great enough and that public safety is being compromised. This paper addresses the problem situation by formulating a linear programming replacement decision model which augments cost-benefit analysis with explicit constraints on acceptable risk to human life from fire/explosion. The model is illustrated for a hypothetical utility.     

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity

Summary.  The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. The analysis is carried out on the basis of a multivariate latent Markov model which allows for discrete covariates affecting the initial and the transition probabilities of the latent process. We also show some simplifications which reduce the number of parameters substantially; we include a Rasch-like parameterization of the conditional distribution of the response variables given the latent process and a constraint of partial homogeneity of the latent Markov chain. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model we outline an EM algorithm based on recursions known in the hidden Markov literature, which make the estimation feasible also when the number of time occasions is large. Through this model, we analyse the conviction histories of a cohort of offenders who were born in England and Wales in 1953. The final model identifies five latent classes and specifies common transition probabilities for males and females between 5-year age periods, but with different initial probabilities.     

Separation of hunting and natural mortality using ring-return models: An overview

Ring-recovery methodology has been widely used to estimate survival rates in multi-year ringing studies of wildlife and fish populations (Youngs & Robson, 1975; Brownie et al. , 1985). The Brownie et al. (1985) methodology is often used but its formulation does not account for the fact that rings may be returned in two ways. Sometimes hunters are solicited by a wildlife management officer or scientist and asked if they shot any ringed birds. Alternatively, a hunter may voluntarily report the ring to the Bird Banding Laboratory (US Fish and Wildlife Service, Laurel, MD, USA) as is requested on the ring. Because the Brownie et al. (1985) models only consider reported rings, Conroy (1985) and Conroy et al. (1989) generalized their models to permit solicited rings. Pollock et al. (1991) considered a very similar model for fish tagging models which might be combined with angler surveys. Pollock et al. (1994) showed how to apply their generalized formulation, with some modification to allow for crippling losses, to wildlife ringing studies. Provided an estimate of ring reporting rate is available, separation of hunting and natural mortality estimates is possible which provides important management information. Here we review this material and then discuss possible methods of estimating reporting rate which include: (1) reward ring studies; (2) use of planted rings; (3) hunter surveys; and (4) pre- and post-hunting season ringings. We compare and contrast the four methods in terms of their model assumptions and practicality. We also discuss the estimation of crippling loss using pre- and post-season ringing in combination with a reward ringing study to estimate reporting rate.     

The use of the psychosocial maturity inventory in evaluations of youth conservation corps programs

Although work experience has been widely recommended as beneficial to adolescent development, there is little empirical support for this recommendation. The Youth Conservation Corps (YCC), combining as it does some of the best features of both paid work and unpaid community service, offers an opportunity to explore the developmental impact of work experience. However, the need to pay as much attention to the problems of measurement as to the programs themselves dictates simultaneous evaluation of both programs and measures.