Estimating age-specific survival rates of tawny owls--recaptures versus recoveries

We compared estimates of annual survival rates of tawny owls ( Strix aluco ) ringed in southern Finland from several different sampling methods: recoveries of birds ringed as young; recaptures of birds ringed as young; recoveries of birds ringed as adults as well as young; combined recoveries and recaptures of birds ringed as young, and combined recoveries and recaptures of birds ringed as adults and young. From 1979 to 1998, 18 040 young owls were ringed, of which 983 were recaptured as breeders in subsequent years during this period, and 1764 were recovered dead at various locations. In addition, 1751 owls were ringed as adults, of which 612 were later recaptured and 199 were recovered dead. First-year survival rates estimated using only recoveries of birds ringed as young averaged 48%, while apparent survival rates estimated using only recaptures from birds ringed as young averaged 10-13%. Use of combined recapture-recovery models, or supplementary information from recoveries of birds ringed as adults, produced survival estimates of 30-37%. Survival estimates from young-recoveries-only models were biased high, because of violation of the assumption of constant recovery rates with age: birds dying in their first-year were one-third less likely to be found and reported than older birds. In contrast, recaptures-only models confounded emigration with mortality. Despite these differences in mean values, annual fluctuations in estimated first-year survival rates were similar with all models. Estimates of adult survival rates were similar with all models, while those for second-year birds were similar for all models except recaptures-only. These results highlight the potential biases associated with analysing either recaptures or recoveries alone of birds ringed as young, and the benefits of using combined data.     

Differences in the Performance of Public Organisations in Ghana: Implications for Public‐Sector Reform Policy

This article uses survey data from Ghana to examine whether there are significant differences in the characteristics of poor and well performing public organisations, and finds that they differ in two respects: remuneration and hiring criteria. It argues that transforming those that perform poorly is, however, more complex than simply addressing these differences: it requires fundamental changes in the cultures of organisations. Recommendations are made for designing comprehensive public‐sector reform strategies that focus on both the enabling environment and achieving cultural change in specific organisations, avoiding a one‐size‐fits‐all approach.     

Revisiting Family of Origin in the Training of Family Therapists

Family of Origin exploration has had a controversial history in family therapy training. This article describes a process that aims to integrate family of origin work with skills development Co‐developed by a training group and their trainer, it builds on the existing approach at the Bouverie Centre in Melbourne. Family of origin work is clearly and practically linked with the enhancement of clinical skills, as argued for in the literature. Informed consent trust and safety are taken seriously, and negotiated within the training group. Trainee and trainer stories are included and the authors discuss the learning that resulted from asking trainees to present their family of origin to the group, including the unpredictable personal ramifications that inevitably occur in such processes.     

What is the effective sample size of a spatial point process?

Point process models are a natural approach for modelling data that arise as point events. In the case of Poisson counts, these may be fitted easily as a weighted Poisson regression. Point processes lack the notion of sample size. This is problematic for model selection, because various classical criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) are a function of the sample size, n, and are derived in an asymptotic framework where n tends to infinity. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic result for Poisson point process models in which the observed number of point events, m, plays the role that sample size does in the classical regression context. Following from this result, we derive a version of BIC for point process models, and when fitted via penalised likelihood, conditions for the LASSO penalty that ensure consistency in estimation and the oracle property. We discuss challenges extending these results to the wider class of Gibbs models, of which the Poisson point process model is a special case.     

Fertility decline and gender bias in

Although it is widely acknowledged that the preference for sons is a barrier to a decline in fertility, considerable disagreement exists as to what actually happens to this preference when fertility declines in a region of low female autonomy. By analyzing the data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), we present evidence from northern India to show that the preference for sons is reduced when the ideal family size becomes small, even though it does not completely disappear. This finding appears to contradict trends in the juvenile sex ratio and the incidence of female feticide that suggest the intensification of gender bias. We argue that the anomaly is the result of a diffusion of prenatal sex-diagnostic techniques in regions where there is a large unmet demand for such methods. Using the NFHS data, we estimate that in northern India, girls currently constitute about 60% of the unwanted births and that the elimination of unwanted fertility has the potential to raise the sex ratio at birth to 130 boys per 100 girls.     

The institutional design of the Australian Welfare State

This paper seeks to compare and contrast the character of social policy in Australia with that in other OECD countries by focusing on the distinctive design features of the institutions constituting the wider context of Australian social policy provision. The three substantive sections of the paper successively summarize the distinguishing features of the institutional design of Welfare State provision in continental western Europe, Scandinavia and Australia; outline the wider institutional context of social policy in Australia; and examine the extent to which the distinctiveness of the institutional design of the Australian Welfare State has led to different patterns of policy outcomes from those in other nations.