From Divergence to Convergence: The Sex Differential in Life Expectancy in Canada, 1971–2000*

Au cows du XX^e siècle, la différence de l'espérance de vie entre les sexes dans les pays industrialisés a augmenté en faveur des femmes. On a remarqué récemment un renversement du modèle a long terme de cet écart dans certains pays. Au Canada, entre 1981 et 2000, cette différence a diminué d'environ deux ans. Une grande partie de ce phénomène sexplique par un taux de mortalité moins élevé chez les hommes que celui auquel on se serait attendu par rapport aux cardiopathies, aux cancers du poumon, aux accidents et à la violence (les suicides non compris). Le changement de la préevalence du tabagisme chez les hommes et chez les femmes est en forte corrélation avec la modification de la mortalité due aux maladies du c?ur et au cancer en fonction des sexes. Les raisons qui expliquent la diminution de la mortalité chez les hommes par suite d'accidents et de violence sont cependant moins claires et exigent des recherches plus approfondies. Over the 20th century sex differences in life expectancy in the industrialized countries have widened in favour of women. Recently, a reversal in the long‐term pattern of this differential has been noted in some countries. In Canada, between 1981 and 2000, this differential narrowed by almost two years. Greater than expected improvements in male death rates with respect to heart disease, lung cancer, accidents and violence (excluding suicide) explain a large part of this phenomenon. Change in male and female smoking prevalence correlates strongly with change in sex differences in mortality from heart disease and cancer. The reasons underlying men's greater mortality improvements in regard to accidents and violence are less clear and need further investigation.     

Book reviews

Theory and Society -     

Explorative study into support needs of caregivers in short-term foster care regarding problem behaviour and dealing with biological parents

Family supporting foster care (FSFC) is a directly accessible, short-term and preventive form of foster care for children under the age of 12. Caregivers in this type of foster care need comprehensive support to deal with their complex tasks. In this contribution, the support needs arising from the behaviour of the foster child as well as concerning dealing with the biological parents of 85 Flemish FSFC-parents are examined, as these are areas FSFC-parents specifically ask support for. These support needs are evaluated for possible links with child and foster parent characteristics. More experienced foster parents and foster parents with a foster child showing more externalising problem behaviour ask for more support in managing the child's behaviour.     

Establishing a Parenting Program for Fathers in Substance Abuse Treatment

This paper describes a systemic, trauma and attachment model for a parenting program for fathers in residential substance abuse treatment. It emphasises the complex nature of delivering parenting programs in this context and the importance of going beyond simple linear principles of reward and punishment, upon which many other parenting programs are predicated.     

Evaluation of program success for programs with multiple trials in binary outcomes

A late‐stage clinical development program typically contains multiple trials. Conventionally, the program's success or failure may not be known until the completion of all trials. Nowadays, interim analyses are often used to allow evaluation for early success and/or futility for each individual study by calculating conditional power, predictive power and other indexes. It presents a good opportunity for us to estimate the probability of program success (POPS) for the entire clinical development earlier. The sponsor may abandon the program early if the estimated POPS is very low and therefore permit resource savings and reallocation to other products. We provide a method to calculate probability of success (POS) at an individual study level and also POPS for clinical programs with multiple trials in binary outcomes. Methods for calculating variation and confidence measures of POS and POPS and timing for interim analysis will be discussed and evaluated through simulations. We also illustrate our approaches on historical data retrospectively from a completed clinical program for depression. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human nature and economic policy: lessons for the transition economies

Both economic regulation in market economies and state ownership and control of the means of production in socialist economies have been interpreted as means of protecting people from economic exploitation by the owners of capital. In this paper, I argue against this interpretation, suggesting that both sets of institutions are more plausibly viewed as protecting people from destructive competition amongst themselves.     

Adolescent Religiosity and School Contexts*

Objectives. Schools serve as the primary social organizations for adolescents, structuring their lives and conveying a variety of skills, norms, and values, but relatively little is known about how schools influence the development of religious belief, attitudes, and behavior during adolescence. We explore how schools' religious norms, coupled with adolescents' pursuit of social status through conformity, affect public and private religiosity. Methods. Employing data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we use multilevel modeling to examine the impact of school context on adolescents' public and private religiosity. Results. We find that school norms are influential in shaping both public religious expressions and private devotional activities, but pursuit of social status is a motivation for change across religious contexts only of public religious activity. The effect of social status as a motivator of religious change was moderated by the strength of the adolescent's identification with the school, especially for private religiosity. Conclusions. Schools play a key role in the social development of adolescents, and students' religious beliefs and behaviors are influenced systematically and observably by the type of religious climate within the school.     

Five tumultuous years in Australian child protection: little progress

In an article published in 2002, one of the authors of this paper offered an analysis of the Australian child protection data from 1999 to 2000 and raised questions about the effectiveness of mandatory reporting. Recently, child protection data for 2003–2004 has been released. This provides an opportunity to re‐examine some child protection issues and the effectiveness of mandatory reporting 5 years on. These have been tumultuous years. Each state and territory has held major inquiries into this area of practice and, as a result, significant organizational changes have taken place and new resources are being made available. Nevertheless, questions about the effectiveness of child protection services remain. There is continuing doubt about the value of comprehensive reporting systems.