THE MYTH OF THE UNFEELING STRATEGIC THERAPIST

This paper explores what the authors consider to be a widespread myth: that strategic therapists ignore, avoid, or neglect client feelings in treatment. This myth is promulgated by trainers' admonitions and strategic theorists' injunctions against dealing with client affect. It is also cultivated by omission of this topic in the strategic literature. The myth is destructive in that it misrepresents what strategic practitioners actually do in a therapy session. Seven elements of the myth are delineated and the corresponding fallacies are illustrated.     

Migration into big cities and small towns — an uneven process with limited need for multiculturalism

The following paper is based on preliminary research on the consequences of recent migration in Germany for the different administrative levels and especially for local governments. In the same way as there is no uniform immigration process on the one side, there is no single society or a single nation state in the sense of single actors on the other side who could relate to immigration as an integrated whole. Migration itself consists of heterogeneous migration strands moving on different lines into different cities and towns. And local governments are part of an internally highly differentiated political system. Modern welfare state organizations handle migration in the logic of their own processing. In order to understand the consequences of migration and the meaning of multiculturalism on the local level further research will have to take into account the position of local governments in this differentiated system.     

„Drop your tools!“

This essay unfolds its subject matter ‘resistance’ in a pointed way on various levels referring to learning as a personal, social and organisational process. On the one hand the significance of resistance for learning is analysed: resistance here has an irritating effect within the system and allows the learning process to be understood as oscillating between adaptation and rejection. On the other hand this essay probes into the development of dynamic forms of resistance against learning occasionally triggerd off by the process of learning itself.     

Marriage and the value of waiting

Using a simple model where singles try to maximize their pizazz, we examine the value of the option to give up single life in favor of marriage when singles pizazz levels follow correlated geometric Brownian motions. We derive the critical level of relative pizazz levels that triggers the move to marriage and find that for relatively small (large) potential economies of scale in marriage, a single will generally be willing to get married if his/her prospective partners pizazz is strictly higher (lower) than his/her own.Comment by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

The Risk of Groundling Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people's perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to "groundlings" could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man-made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.     

Gambling, Delinquency, and Drug Use During Adolescence: Mutual Influences and Common Risk Factors

The purpose of this study was threefold: (1) to assess the possible mutual influence between gambling, substance use, and delinquency over a two-year period during mid adolescence, (2) to test whether variables that are usually predictive of delinquency and substance use also predict gambling, and (3) to test whether the links between the three problem behaviors could be, at least partially, accounted for by common antecedent factors (impulsivity, parental supervision, and deviant friends) assessed during early adolescence. Seven hundred and seventeen boys participated in the study. Impulsivity, parental supervision, and friends' deviancy were collected when participants were 13 and 14 years of age. Gambling, substance use, and delinquency were collected through self-reports at ages 16 and 17 years. Results showed no influence or modest influence of problem behaviors on each other from age 16 to age 17 years, once current links and auto-correlations were accounted for. Conversely, the cross-sectional links between the three problem behaviors at each age were moderately high. Impulsivity, low parental supervision, and deviant friends were predictively related to each problem. Finally, a significant, although modest, portion of the covariance between the three problem behaviors was accounted for by these three predictors. The present findings contradict previous findings about the influence of gambling on other problem behaviors and support the notion of a general problem behavior syndrome fed by generic risk factors.     

Suicidal behavior among members of Gamblers Anonymous

A national sample of 500 members of Gamblers Anonymous was surveyed by mail in order to gather information on suicidal history. One hundred sixty two usable surveys were returned representing 32.4% of the original sample. Compulsive gamblers who had a history of suicidal preoccupation began gambling at an earlier age than nonsuicidal gamblers and were more likely to have stolen to support their gambling. They also tended to have addicted relatives and children more than nonsuicidal gamblers did. The data suggest that those gamblers who had been suicidal tend to be more serious gamblers than nonsuicidal respondents.     

Infant mortality decline in Chile: A replication

This replication of a previous analysis of the effect of sociological variables on infant mortality rates in Chile refines the earlier work by using the more numerous communes for comparisons, by presenting the basic data in the form of a path analysis, and by expanding the theory to include “health practices,” customs, such as avoiding teenage pregnancies, that are community-backed and maintained. This type of practice is then integrated into the “institutionalized problem-solving capacity” framework that guides the analysis. Urabnization and voting, the two indicators of institutionalized problem-solving capacity, predict reduced infant morality, as before. Teen pregnancies is a positive predictor, as expected, but the number of children already born does not predict. These results are net of two indicators of health technology-whether or not a physician was in attendance, and the number of clinics. Mother's education also predicted low infant morality, and the theory is applied to this well-known predictor to interpret its effect. In addition, the anomalous role of mother's education in the dominant biomedical explanation is highlighted.     

Even the underprivileged are rational: The incentive effects of welfare

Tanner and Moore (1995) calculate welfare equivalent wages for the six most common social programs for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. They assert that individuals who choose public assistance over work are responding rationally to incentives of the welfare system, but they offer no evidence. I present statistically significant support for Tanner and Moore’s assertion. Among potential welfare recipients, a one dollar increase in the welfare equivalent wage is found to increase the welfare take-up rate by approximately 2.7 percentage points and decrease the labor force participation rate by approximately 2.5 percentage points. I thank John Dawson, Don Nimey, Michelle W. Trawick, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The usual caveat applies.