Changing trends in the involvement of Mexican property owners in municipal politics

Cet article étudie le changement de tendances du comportement politique des proprietaires de biens dans un municipio rural mexicain. On a utilise onze analyses trajectoires pour déterminer les effets du degré d'alphabétisation, de la proximité, et de la propriété sur le niveau de participation au gouvernement municipal, et pour découvrir comment ces effets ont changé au cours du temps. Les coefficients ont été interprétes dans le contexte de la connaissance antérieure par l'auteur de l'histoire locale. Les résultats démontrent que les répercussions de la propriété ont graduellement baissé, tel que prévu, tandis que le degré d'alphabétisation et la proximité ont gagné en importance. Cependant la variation globale qui pourrait être expliquée, a aussi baissé. Ceci indique que dautres facteurs externes ont joué un rôle de plus en plus important.
This paper examines changing trends in the political behaviour of property owners in a rural Mexican municipio. Eleven path analyses were used to determine the effects ot literacy, proximity, and property on the level of participation in municipal government, and to discover how these effects changed over time. The coefficients were interpreted in the light of the author's previous knowledge of local history. It was found that the impact of property gradually declined, as expected, while literacy and proximity became more important. However, the overall variation that could be explained also declined, indicating that other, external factors played an increasingly important role.     

Maintaining strategic momentum: The CEO''s agenda

How does the chief executive of a large complex organization maintain strategic momentum? This represents a great challenge when there are no obvious external threats, and no obvious reasons for having a concerted action. Floris Maljers, Charles Baden-Fuller and Frans van den Bosch explore the inherent tensions which exist between stability and change. Change is necessary to maintain success, but too much change is disastrous. The authors argue that there are several possible solutions to this paradox, including that of generating periods of intense activity followed by periods of comparative stability and incremental improvement. Using the introspection of one of the CEOs of Unilever, who held office from 1984 to 1994, the authors examine how these tensions were played out and resolved.     

Reclassifying causes of death to study the epidemiological transition in The Netherlands, 1875–1992

This article describes a method for reclassifying causes of death in the Netherlands for the period 1875–1992. Two criteria should be met to obtain a useful classification to study the epidemiological transition. First, the categories should be nosologically continuous over the period under study and second, there should be enough detail in causes which are important in the context of the epidemiological transition viz. communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases and external causes of death. A method developed by Vallin and Meslé (1988), which involves ‘dual correspondence tables’ and ‘fundamental associations’, was used to create nosologically continuous categories. These categories were tested for statistical continuity during the transition years of one ICD-revision to the next, using ordinary least squares regression analysis. The reclassification procedure resulted in a nested classification consisting of three levels of refinement of causes of death: 27 causes, 1875–1992; 65 causes, 1901–1992; and 92 causes, 1931–1992. On the basis of this classification, 43% of all deaths in 1875–79 and 98% of all deaths in 1992 could be allocated to either communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases or external causes.     

Optimal allocation of time points for the random effects model

In this article the problem of the optimal selection and allocation of time points in repeated measures experiments is considered. D‐ optimal designs for linear regression models with a random intercept and first order auto‐regressive serial correlations are computed numerically and compared with designs having equally spaced time points. When the order of the polynomial is known and the serial correlations are not too small, the comparison shows that for any fixed number of repeated measures, a design with equally spaced time points is almost as efficient as the D‐ optimal design. When, however, there is no prior knowledge about the order of the underlying polynomial, the best choice in terms of efficiency is a D‐ optimal design for the highest possible relevant order of the polynomial. A design with equally‐spaced time points is the second best choice     

Effects of resident-oriented care on job characteristics of nursing caregivers

This study evaluates the effects of the implementation of resident-oriented care on the job characteristics (job autonomy, job demands and social support) of nursing caregivers in three Dutch nursing homes. In a quasi-experimental design, experimental and control groups in both general and psychogeriatric wards were followed for up to 22 months, using a pre-test and two post-tests by means of written questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The results showed that the intervention appeared to be partly successful. Last post-test regression analyses revealed significant increases in a number of design characteristics of resident-oriented care. Significant increases were noticed on resident assignment, the two variables measuring the nursing process and, in the psychogeriatric experimental group, on resident-oriented tasks (p≤.01). The effects on job characteristics were limited. An indicative increase was shown in contextual job autonomy in the experimental group (p≤.05). The qualitative data derived from the interviews showed that there was still a partly task-oriented division of labour. Further, the delegation of co-ordination tasks to nursing caregivers had not yet been properly achieved. The study concludes with some theoretical and methodological reflections in the light of the findings.     

Widowhood,family size,and post-reproductive Mortality: a comparative Analysis of three populations in Nineteenth-Century Europe

Researchers from a number of disciplines have offered competing theories about the effects oJ childbearing on parents 'postreproductive longevity. The "disposable soma theory" argues that investments in somatic maintenance increase longevity but reduce childbearing. "Maternal depletion" models suggest that the rigors of childrearing increase mortality in later years. Other researchers consider continued childbearing a sign of healthy aging and a predictor of future longevity. Empirical studies have produced inconsistent and contradictory results. Our focus is on the experience of widowhood, which has been ignored in previous studies. We hypothesize that the death of a spouse is a stressful event with long-term consequences for health, especially for women with small children. Data are drawn from historical sources in Sweden, Belgium, and the Netherlands from 1766 to 1980. Postreproductive mortality was highest among young widows with larger families in all three samples. Age at last birth had little or no effect. We conclude that raising children under adverse circumstances can have long-lasting, harmful effects on a mother's health.     

A Multivariate Intervention Model for the Dutch Mint Circulation: Estimation and Monte Carlo Simulation

For each of the five Dutch coinage denominations, a transfer-function model is estimated. The output variables are monthly observations of coins in circulation. Two input variables represent transaction flows; all other inputs are step functions, representing the occurrence of interventions. Using the method of cross-correlating the residuals of the individual equations, a multivariate transfer-function model is constructed and estimated. Next Monte Carlo simulation is applied to derive expectations and variances of the yearly addition to the stock of coins until 1996. Our results enlighten on some aspects of a problem situation faced by the Dutch State Mint.     

The quiet before the storm: anticipating developments in synthetic biology

Synthetic biology aims at designing biological systems, at building ‘living machines’. The emergence of synthetic biology has reignited the cycle of public debate. The old biotechnology debate is being reiterated and the controversies are deepened. The societal debate follows the technological hype cycle. A new technology with a high visibility and high expectations also raises high controversies. For synthetic biology, this hype is currently near its peak and the first signs of disillusionment are getting visible. In policy development, on the other hand, synthetic biology is in the early stages. Governments examine the need for adaptations to existing regulatory frameworks. There is a gap between the visibility of the technological developments and policy formulation. This gap is crucial for technology assessment: while the hype in public attention is over, essential policy steps are taken. In order to close this gap, technology assessment needs to facilitate the societal–ethical debate when media attention, and thus the visibility of the technological developments, declines.