Identification and Inference With Many Invalid Instruments

We study estimation and inference in settings where the interest is in the effect of a potentially endogenous regressor on some outcome. To address the endogeneity, we exploit the presence of additional variables. Like conventional instrumental variables, these variables are correlated with the endogenous regressor. However, unlike conventional instrumental variables, they also have direct effects on the outcome, and thus are “invalid” instruments. Our novel identifying assumption is that the direct effects of these invalid instruments are uncorrelated with the effects of the instruments on the endogenous regressor. We show that in this case the limited-information-maximum-likelihood (liml) estimator is no longer consistent, but that a modification of the bias-corrected two-stage-least-square (tsls) estimator is consistent. We also show that conventional tests for over-identifying restrictions, adapted to the many instruments setting, can be used to test for the presence of these direct effects. We recommend that empirical researchers carry out such tests and compare estimates based on liml and the modified version of bias-corrected tsls. We illustrate in the context of two applications that such practice can be illuminating, and that our novel identifying assumption has substantive empirical content.     

Horizons for strategic planning

In this paper we present a normative model for setting time horizons for planning. Provided that certain conditions are met, we can state that only part of the future is relevant for present strategic planning, and a study of the future beyond that time horizons is a waste of resources.Following the introduction the impact of predetermined planning horizon on planning is discussed. Next, the model is presented: the problem is defined, developed and solved. The discussion of the model is designed to incorporate—and to show its implication on—existing views and methods for setting time horizons for strategic planning. Thus, simplifying assumptions which facilitate the mathematical solution of the problem, are discussed and relaxed in order to show how realistic situations are illuminated by the model.     

Effect of individual differences in nonverbal expressiveness on transmission of emotion

This study tested the possibility that individual differences in nonverbal expressiveness may function as a mediating factor in the transmission of emotion through social comparison. In a quasi-experimental design, small groups consisting of one expressive person and two unexpressive people were created in which the participants sat facing each other without talking for two minutes. Self-report measures of mood indicated that the feelings of the unexpressive people were influenced by the expressive people but the expressive people were relatively unlikely to be influenced by the unexpressive people. The findings have implications for the role of nonverbal communication in the emotional side of group interaction.This research was supported by NIMH Grant #R03MH31453 and by an Intramural Research Grant from UC Riverside to Howard Friedman. We would like to thank Louise M. Prince and Dan Segall for their assistance and Eliot Smith, Joe Schwartz and Keith Widaman for suggestions.     

The great health policy debate of 2010

Moderator: Good evening. Tonight I will be moderating a debate on the Health Care System Salvage and Coverage Overhaul Act of 2010 (Senate Bill 1, with companion legislation in the House). The bill is awaiting final congressional action, and the issue is considered so important that all 14 major television networks are carrying this debate live, along with many radio networks and at least 1,873 Internet/World Wide Web sites. As you know, S.B. 1 would provide immediate federal aid to the 1,000 hospitals and health care systems that are currently in bankruptcy; extend government-subsidized coverage to the estimated 90 million Americans who lack it; return to the federal government a wide range of health care regulatory and payment activities that had been transferred to the states; and prohibit certain types of health care enterprises and services, chiefly proprietary delivery and managed care systems. At the moment, the chances of its passage are too close to call. Arguments in support of S.B. 1 will be presented tonight by Sen. Joseph P. Kennedy II, Democrat of Massachusetts; arguments in opposition to the bill will be presented by Sen. George W. Bush, Republican of Texas; and the view of the Independent Party will be presented by former Kansas Senator Nancy Kassebaum, who also speaks as chairman of the National Nonpartisan Commission to Save American Health Care. Senator Kennedy will begin.     

Noah: a story of peacebuilding,nonviolence, reconciliation,and healing

ABSTRACT

For years there has been a failure to show the relevance between the application of religious text within social work and the social sciences. This paper provides a functional framework on the reason for the separation between social sciences and religious studies and then uses the Genesis account of Noah and the flood to show how the two can be integrated for peacebuilding, reconciliation, and healing. The paper applies the Noah story to micro, mezzo, and macro applications of social work practice and concludes with a call for a deeper integration of religious text into social work practice.     

The Schooling of Offspring and the Survival of Parents

Contemporary stratification research on developed societies usually views the intergenerational transmission of educational advantage as a one-way effect from parent to child. However, parents’ investment in their offspring’s schooling may yield significant returns for parents themselves in later life. For instance, well-educated offspring have greater knowledge of health and technology to share with their parents and more financial means to provide for them than do their less-educated counterparts. We use data from the 1992–2006 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine whether adult offspring’s educational attainments are associated with parents’ survival in the United States. We show that adult offspring’s educational attainments have independent effects on their parents’ mortality, even after controlling for parents’ own socioeconomic resources. This relationship is more pronounced for deaths that are linked to behavioral factors: most notably, chronic lower respiratory disease and lung cancer. Furthermore, at least part of the association between offspring’s schooling and parents’ survival may be explained by parents’ health behaviors, including smoking and physical activity. These findings suggest that one way to influence the health of the elderly is through their offspring. To harness the full value of schooling for health, then, a family and multigenerational perspective is needed.