德国关于电子电气设备的闭环供应链研究：一种生态效益计算方法

近来关于闭环供应链网络的文献中提出了两个重要问题：（1）如何制定平衡环境和经济效益的优化方案；（2）如何深刻理解二者间的效益背反关系。本文认为，针对环境和经济闭的效益边界及其背反关系进行全面探索，可以有效解决环境保护和经济发展中的效益平衡问题。为了解决求解效益边界的多变量问题，本文设计了一个针对目标函数中的数值进行指数计算的生态效益算法，并在德国电子电气设备闭环供应链设计中进行了实证研究。     

Testing parameter of the power series distribution of a zero inflated power series model

The Zero Inflated Power Series Distribution (ZIPSD) contains two parameters. The first parameter indicates inflation of zero and the other parameter is that of the Power Series distribution. We provide three asymptotic tests for testing the parameter of Power Series distribution, using an unconditional (standard) likelihood approach, a conditional likelihood approach and a test based on sample mean, respectively. The performance of these three tests has been studied for Zero Inflated Poisson Distribution (ZIPD). Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for the parameter are also provided.     

Posterior consistency of logistic Gaussian process priors in density estimation

We establish weak and strong posterior consistency of Gaussian process priors studied by Lenk [1988. The logistic normal distribution for Bayesian, nonparametric, predictive densities. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83 (402), 509–516] for density estimation. Weak consistency is related to the support of a Gaussian process in the sup-norm topology which is explicitly identified for many covariance kernels. In fact we show that this support is the space of all continuous functions when the usual covariance kernels are chosen and an appropriate prior is used on the smoothing parameters of the covariance kernel. We then show that a large class of Gaussian process priors achieve weak as well as strong posterior consistency (under some regularity conditions) at true densities that are either continuous or piecewise continuous.     

A new mixture model for capture heterogeneity

Summary.  We propose a mixture of binomial and beta–binomial distributions for estimating the size of closed populations. The new mixture model is applied to several real capture–recapture data sets and is shown to provide a convenient, objective framework for model selection. The new model is compared with three alternative models in a simulation study, and the results shed light on the general performance of models in this area. The new model provides a robust flexible analysis, which automatically deals with small capture probabilities.     

COVARIANCE MODELS FOR LATTICE DATA

Given observations on an m × n lattice, approximate maximum likelihood estimates are derived for a family of models including direct covariance, spatial moving average, conditional autoregressive and simultaneous autoregressive models. The approach involves expressing the (approximate) covariance matrix of the observed variables in terms of a linear combination of neighbour relationship matrices, raised to a power. The structure is such that the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix are independent of the parameters of interest. This result leads to a simple Fisher scoring type algorithm for estimating the parameters. The ideas are illustrated by fitting models to some remotely sensed data.     

PERMUTATION MODELS FOR RELATIONAL DATA

A common problem in sociology, psychology, biology, geography, and management science is the comparison of dyadic relational structures (i.e., graphs). Where these structures are formed on a common set of elements, a natural question that arises is whether there is a tendency for elements that are strongly connected in one set of structures to be more—or less—strongly connected within another set. We may ask, for instance, whether there is a correspondence between golf games and business deals, trade and warfare, or spatial proximity and genetic similarity. In each case, the data for such comparisons may be continuous or discrete, and multiple relations may be involved simultaneously (e.g., when comparing multiple measures of international trade volume with multiple types of political interactions). We propose here an exponential family of permutation models that is suitable for inferring the direction and strength of association among dyadic relational structures. A linear-time algorithm is shown for MCMC simulation of model draws, as is the use of simulated draws for maximum likelihood estimation (MCMC-MLE) and/or estimation of Monte Carlo standard errors. We also provide an easily performed maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation procedure for the permutation model family, which provides a reasonable means of generating seed models for the MCMC-MLE procedure. Use of the modeling framework is demonstrated via an application involving relationships among managers in a high-tech firm.