Testing for a trend in exponential means: A two-moment approximation to the null distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic

The likelihood-ratio test statistic for testing homogeneity of exponential means with an ordered alternative has a rather complex null distribution. Expressions for the mean and variance of its null distribution are derived, and the accuracy of a two-moment chi-squared approximation is studied. The coefficients needed to implement the approximation are tabled. The application of these results in testing for a constant versus a nondecreasing intensity in a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is also discussed.     

A Bayesian method of sample size determination with practical applications

Summary.  The problem motivating the paper is the determination of sample size in clinical trials under normal likelihoods and at the substantive testing stage of a financial audit where normality is not an appropriate assumption. A combination of analytical and simulation-based techniques within the Bayesian framework is proposed. The framework accommodates two different prior distributions: one is the general purpose fitting prior distribution that is used in Bayesian analysis and the other is the expert subjective prior distribution, the sampling prior which is believed to generate the parameter values which in turn generate the data. We obtain many theoretical results and one key result is that typical non-informative prior distributions lead to very small sample sizes. In contrast, a very informative prior distribution may either lead to a very small or a very large sample size depending on the location of the centre of the prior distribution and the hypothesized value of the parameter. The methods that are developed are quite general and can be applied to other sample size determination problems. Some numerical illustrations which bring out many other aspects of the optimum sample size are given.     

The public library system. Social services resource for the geriatric population

The public library system is targeting the geriatric population and instituting programs to meet informational and recreational needs. From retirement planning, visual aids, and screening, to accessing library material to the elderly, the public library system attempts to meet the challenge of providing service to this special population. Although not a formal group, the library has inherent therapeutic effects that benefit the elderly who participate in their programs. The clinician would be advised to take advantage of these various programs. Because each local and regional center will offer different programs, calling a local library is the most effective way to find out what a specific public library system has to offer. Nurses may also consider joint efforts to initiate programs in their library systems to better meet the population's needs.     

Racial concentration and segregation across U.S. counties, 1950–1980

By presenting race-specific population concentration indexes for U.S. counties for the 1950-1980 period, this paper updates and extends previous analyses of 1900-1974 patterns of population concentration by Duncan et al. (1961) and Vining and Strauss (1977). Declines in population concentration persisted through 1980 only among the white population. Blacks continued to experience increases in population concentration between 1970 and 1980. These racially divergent patterns of concentration in the 1970s have translated into increases in segregation between blacks and whites across U.S. counties.     

Transfer programs and aggregate household formations

The number of households in the United States increased by over fifty percent in the 1960s and 1970s, nearly double the rate of population growth. Part of the increase is explained by the movement of large cohort groups of the population into prime household-forming age categories, but higher headship rates also contribute. Age-specific headship rate increases result from non-demographic factors, and this paper focuses on the role of government transfer payment programs. Specifically considered are Social Security, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, and Food Stamps. These programs are found to have accounted for as many as 4 million net household formations between 1961 and 1984. The findings have implications for expected households formations in the 1990s.     

Absence behaviour, turnover and disability: A study among city bus drivers in the Netherlands

Absenteeism, turnover and disability, and relationships between them have been studied among city bus drivers in the Netherlands. The theoretical framework for the study was a cumulative process model of work and health. Absenteeism among these drivers was two to three times as high as the national average, while the risk of disablement was more than twice as high as the risk for male Dutch civil servants in general. Bus drivers who had to leave their job for medical reasons did so at a younger age than other groups of civil servants. The main conditions leading to disablement related to the back, tendons and joints (35%), mental disorders (35%) and cardiovascular diseases (12%). It was shown that long-term absenteeism is a strong precursor of future disability. The research suggests a work-related process of progressive deterioration of health and well-being over a reasonably long period of time. Driving city buses seems to be an occupation with high risks for health and well-being.     

Staying safe and visible via message sharing in online social networks

As an imperative channel for fast information propagation, online social networks (OSNs) also have their defects. One of them is the information leakage, i.e., information could be spread via OSNs to the users whom we are not willing to share with. Thus the problem of constructing a circle of trust to share information with as many friends as possible without further spreading it to unwanted targets has become a challenging research topic but still remained open. Our work is the first attempt to study the Maximum Circle of Trust problem seeking to share the information with the maximum expected number of poster’s friends such that the information spread to the unwanted targets is brought to its knees. First, we consider a special and more practical case with the two-hop information propagation and a single unwanted target. In this case, we show that this problem is NP-hard, which denies the existence of an exact polynomial-time algorithm. We thus propose a Fully Polynomial-Time Approximation Scheme (FPTAS), which can not only adjust any allowable performance error bound but also run in polynomial time with both the input size and allowed error. FPTAS is the best approximation solution one can ever wish for an NP-hard problem. We next consider the number of unwanted targets is bounded and prove that there does not exist an FPTAS in this case. Instead, we design a Polynomial-Time Approximation Scheme (PTAS) in which the allowable error can also be controlled. When the number of unwanted targets are not bounded, we provide a randomized algorithm, along with the analytical theoretical bound and inapproximaibility result. Finally, we consider a general case with many hops information propagation and further show its #P-hardness and propose an effective Iterative Circle of Trust Detection (ICTD) algorithm based on a novel greedy function. An extensive experiment on various real-world OSNs has validated the effectiveness of our proposed approximation and ICTD algorithms. Such an extensive experiment also highlights several important observations on information leakage which help to sharpen the security of OSNs in the future.