Inequality of Opportunity in Indian Women

Social Indicators Research - Inequality of opportunity (IOp) in any society is defined as that part of overall inequality which arises from factors beyond the control of an individual...     

Television Coverage of State Government

An empirical analysis of 3,334 state and local television newsstories in 10 cities clarifies the reluctance of commercialtelevision newscasters to cover state government. Contrary towhat many television news directors assert, television's minimalattention to state government cannot be attributed to an allegednegative relationship between state government and newscastratings. Rather, it appears to stem from the high cost of obtainingfilmed coverage of state government in a timely fashion.     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

River basin planning as a strategy for rural development in Nigeria

River basin planning has existed in one form or another since the third millenium B.C. when some of the earliest civilizations evolved in the great drainage basins of Mesopotamia, Egypt and north-west India. It has, however, undergone several modifications before finally culminating in the comprehensive planning for simultaneous development of all resources of a river basin.The idea of river basin planning was first mooted in Nigeria by the Food and Agriculture Organization in the late 1960s. Beginning in the early 1970s, the Federal government of Nigeria also came to the belief that river basin planning could play a significant role in the country's development. At the height of the ‘oil boom’ in 1976 and with the incipient manifestation of structural problems in the national economy, the government took a giant step in river basin planning by the establishment of 11 river basin development authorities. River basin planning is viewed as a ‘new approach’ to rural development and has involved more substantial capital outlay than all the other rural programmes combined.This paper examines the implementation and impact of these projects, which are large-scale and capital intensive, and which may be incompatible with a strategy aimed at improving the lot of the peasant farmers. The projects have wrought havoc on the prevailing rural economy and social-economic structures. Even if they were to achieve the primary objective of increasing rural productivity, this may be at a great cost to the rural populace and the environment.Perhaps more important is that river basin planning has the potential of substituting one form of dependency for another (food importation being substituted for the importation of fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides, equipment, machines and foreign experts). The projects are thus benefiting a powerful combination of interests comprising local and foreign contractors, land speculators, bureaucrats, rural elites and incipient capitalist farmers who have not borne any losses in the process of implementation.     

Community councils as a medium for public participation: a case study in Grampian region

Planning authorities in Scotland are obliged to consult the public before finalising policies and proposals to be included in their development plans. Community councils are intended to operate as ‘the voice of a neighbourhood’ and this paper analyses an attempt by a regional planning authority to use community councils as a vehicle for consulting the public in the preparation of a structure plan for a rural area. The paper concludes that the attempt was unsuccessful because the community councils were not clear about the role they were expected to play; nor were they adequately prepared for their role. The authors believe, however, that the involvement of community councils has potential for promoting greater public participation in the preparation of development plans.     

ESTIMATION OF THE CONCENTRATION PARAMETERS OF THE FISHER MATRIX DISTRIBUTION ON 50(3) AND THE BINGHAM DISTRIBUTION ON Sq, q≥ 2

Two procedures are considered for estimating the concentration parameters of the Fisher matrix distribution for rotations or orientations in three dimensions. The first is maximum likelihood. The use of a convenient 1-dimensional integral representation of the normalising constant, which greatly simplifies the computation, is suggested. The second approach exploits the equivalence of the Fisher distribution for rotations in three dimensions, and the Bingham distribution for axes in four dimensions. We describe a pseudo likelihood procedure which works for the Bingham distribution in any dimension. This alternative approach does not require numerical integration. Results on the asymptotic efficiency of the pseudo likelihood estimator relative to the maximum likelihood estimator are given, and the two estimators are compared in the analysis of a well-known vectorcardiography dataset.     

NEIGHBOUR ANALYSIS WITH ADJUSTMENT FOR INTERPLOT COMPETITION

In field experiments involving a large number of experimental plots, a neighbour analysis can be used to control environmental variation by estimating the trend within blocks. The effect of interplot competition is another important source of variation which has an influence on the estimation of treatment contrasts. To reduce the effect of the variation from these sources and to improve the precision of comparison between treatments, a spatial model is proposed for incorporating both trend effect and interplot competition. It is a modification to the residual maximum likelihood neighbour analysis of Gleeson & Cullis (1987) using the two neighbouring treatment effects to estimate interplot competition. A real example is used to illustrate this methodology. The results indicate that the extended model gives no appreciable difference in standard error of mean differences compared with the model taking into account the trend effect only. However, the rankings of estimated treatment means do differ. More research using both real and simulated data is required before such models that incorporate trend and competition effects can be confidently recommended.     

Population: Past growth and future control

This paper is the opening chapter and demographic context of a forthcoming book onThe World's Food. It offers a summation of the Malthusian perception of food and population, an overview of population growth in history and the role of the demographic transition. The varying experiences of developing countries in bringing down the birth rate are examined and used as a basis for projecting future population growth.