Assessing the impact of planned social change

It is a special characteristic of all modern societies that we consciously decide on and plan projects designed to improve our social systems. It is our universal predicament that our projects do not always have their intended effects. Very probably we all share in the experience that often we cannot tell whether the project had any impact at all, so complex is the flux of historical changes that would have been going on anyway, and so many are the other projects that might be expected to modify the same indicators.It seems inevitable that in most countries this common set of problems, combined with the obvious relevance of social science research procedures, will have generated a methodology and methodological specialists focused on the problem of assessing the impact of planned social change. It is an assumption if this paper that, in spite of differences in the forms of government and approaches to social planning and problem-solving, much of this methodology can be usefully shared — that social project evaluation methodology is one of the fields of science that has enough universality to make scientific sharing mutually beneficial. As a part of this sharing, this paper reports on program impact assessment methodology as it is developing in the United States today.     

Fertility differentials among the tribal groups of Sierra Leone

Abstract Sierra Leone is in a position typical of many African countries regarding accurate information on her basic demographic characteristics. Such vital registration as exists is confined to a small area and there has been only one census of any reliability, that of 1963. Estimates of fertility levels from the age distribution obtained from that enumeration have been made by Dow, the method having been used previously by Van de Walle for Nigeria.     

FISCAL ILLUSION AND THE GRANTOR GOVERNMENT IN CANADA

Recent work on the U.S. concludes that one or more illusions are responsible for the empirically observed "flypaper effect." Using annual Canadian data for the period 1962–84, we test the "single-illusion" and "dual-illusion" specifications currently in the literature. While the empirical results support the dual-illusion specification, it is not the unambiguous choice over single-illusion specifications as previously found. Further, the nature of the grant system in Canada raises questions about whether illusions or real factors produce the empirical results.     

Part-Time Workers in Welfare: Who Wins,Who Loses,and Why?

This paper reviews the literature on part-time employment and presents data from a survey of part-time social workers in Melbourne. Information on part-time employment by age and gender is presented and industrial issues relevant to part-time work are discussed. Data on demographic characteristics, working conditions and employer perception of advantages and disadvantages of part-time social work are presented from a postal survey of Melbourne health and social welfare agencies.     

Trade unions,corporatism, and inflation

This paper examines the argument that the exchange of powers and responsibilities between government and producer group interests (and, in particular, trade unions) under a bargained form of corporatism confers industrial relations benefits in the form of reduced strikes and economic benefits via lessened inflationary pressures. Focusing largely on the inflation question, an alternative argument is entered to the effect that corporatist experimentation threatens directly to exacerbate the problem in part correctly diagnosed by certain corporatist analysts in their discussion of the fundamental determinants of inflation. Empirical evidence with a bearing on these issues is evaluated. Helpful comments from Joe Reid Jr., Ken Mayhew, Stan Siebert, and the participants in the labor workshop at Hannover are gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimers attach.